Five Overvalued Starting Pitchers For 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

March 8, 2024

Thunder Dan Palyo looks at five starting pitchers to avoid for 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. Why is their fantasy value lower heading into 2024?

Sometimes in fantasy baseball, it's just as important who you don't draft as who you do. This is yet another pitching article from yours truly this preseason where I attempt to evaluate which pitchers are being overvalued in drafts so far.

If you're looking for another list of pitchers I am avoiding, check out this piece I wrote about K-BB% fallers and I promise there are no duplicate names in that article and this one.

In this piece, I am going to break down five starting pitchers that I am not likely to draft this year. I have included their current ADP and our RotoBaller rankings (Baller Move) for your reference.

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Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 95
Baller Move: 130

Cease disappointed those who used an early draft pick on him last season as he finished his 2023 campaign with a 7-9 record, 4.58 ERA, and 1.42 WHIP. He still piled up 214 strikeouts but saw his K% drop to 27.3% (still very good) from 30.3% in 2022 and he doubled up his ERA from 2.20 in 2022 to 4.58 in 2023.

There's certainly a chance he could bounce back, but it's also equally possible that 2022 was his high-water mark as far as his overall effectiveness. He lost about one mph of velocity on all three of his pitches and allowed a career-high ICR (Ideal Contact Rate) of 43.2%.

His slider was still very effective but was chased out of the zone less often (5% decrease in O-Sw%) and it got hit harder more often. Cease's slider was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022, but just wasn't as sharp last season and his curveball was nothing more than a change of pace pitch with only a 9% SwStr% and less vertical break than the year before.

And he's still walking too many hitters for my tastes with a 10.1% walk rate that is right in line with his career 10.4% mark. He hit nine batters and uncorked 14 wild pitches. He looked like the 2021 version of Cease before he broke out in 2022. Unless he's moved at the deadline, he's going to be pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball with little to no run support. Why pay a premium with a top-100 pick for a guy who may have already peaked, has control issues, and saw a dip in velocity last year?

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 123
Baller Move: 170

Let me just start by saying that I am a big Merrill Kelly fan. The guy went to Korea and spent four seasons in the KBO and learned how to pitch. And he's now logged five successful seasons with the Diamondbacks in his thirties, helping them advance to the World Series last year.

It's pretty hard to pick apart his 2023 season. He beefed up his strikeout rate to nearly 26% with a career-high 13.2% SwStr% but also walked more hitters than usual with a 9.4% BB%. He threw six different pitches and reminds me of a poor man's Joe Musgrove with the way he can mix up his pitches to keep hitters off guard without having an overpowering fastball or a wipeout breaking ball.

So, is he finally overrated now that he's no longer underrated? I think that might be the case! Kelly is going to be a steady performer who brings a solid floor as an innings eater and could pick up plenty of wins with a solid offense behind him (he has 25 over the last two seasons).

But he continues to overperform in ERA compared to all of his other ERA indicators and I am just not convinced that at age 35, he has another season like 2023 in him. His profile over the last 3-4 years suggests he's a 4.00 ERA pitcher with average strikeout ability and it's quite possible that he peaked last year across the board.

I'd rather go after Chris Sale or Michael King in the same ADP range, who both bring more strikeout upside. If you want safety, then Kelly is more your speed, but I'd prefer to be more aggressive with my picks at the starting pitcher position.

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 135
Baller Move: 176

This one hits close to home because I am not only a big Pirates fan, but was a champion of Keller last year to break out (and he did -- in a big way). But last year, you could have drafted Keller in one of the final rounds of the drafts and made a huge profit on his production. This year, the price has increased significantly at an ADP around 135 and I am not sure if he can match his 2023 performance or not.

Most projection systems aren't convinced either. Around here, we use the best projection systems in the industry -- ATC. Ariel has Keller pegged for the following numbers this year:

10 wins, 4.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 174 strikeouts

Those numbers will certainly still play but would represent some negative regression in every category but ERA.

Mitch Keller's first strikeout of the afternoon

87.6 MPH cutter, 33 inVB, 2 inHB pic.twitter.com/TYGPPgFvYh

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) March 1, 2024

He might be the Opening Day starter for a below-average Pirates team, but he would likely be a No. 2 or No. 3 in a lot of other rotations. I was happy to see my Buccos lock him up with a long-term deal, but I am not blindly optimistic about his potential. He should continue to be a solid, dependable starter in the league, but I don't think he's a perennial All-Star by any means.

Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees

ADP: 233
Baller Move: 262

Stroman started out the 2023 season in impressive fashion for Chicago. He had a 2.29 ERA at the end of April and was doing what he does well -- getting a ton of ground balls and keeping the ball in the park. He even managed 33 strikeouts in his first 35 innings. I had taken him late in drafts and was thrilled with the results.

And while he managed to keep it up through May and June, some red flags emerged as he started walking too many hitters and found himself having to wiggle out of innings with multiple men on base far too often.

Finally, in July, it all fell apart for Stroman and regression hit hard. He had a 9.11 (yes, it was an emergency) ERA in 26.2 innings and ended up on the IL for most of the remainder of the season. He made only two more starts in September as well as a few relief appearances, finishing with a 5.63 ERA in just eight innings after his injury.

That makes two consecutive years now that Stroman has failed to pitch 140 innings. His average start was just 5.5 innings over his two years in Chicago. He finished last year with a 20.7% K% (about 1% lower than his career average) and a 9.0% BB rate (a full 2% higher than his career average). Those marks are good for an 11.7% K-BB%, which is well below what we expect from the average pitcher.

I fear the days of the old-school ground ball pitchers who don't miss bats often enough are coming to an end, especially with hitters across the league focused on increasing the launch angles of their swings. The quality of hitters that he'll face in the AL East is likely going to be tougher than what he saw in the NL Central, too.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 244
Baller Move: 258

Abbott is coming off a pretty solid rookie campaign as he finished 8-6 for Cincinnati with a 3.87 ERA and 120 strikeouts over 109 innings. His WHIP of 1.32 wasn't good, however, and he also finished with a 9.6% BB%.

Here is the final line on Andrew Abbott, who was very sharp in his spring debut today against the Mariners‼️

2IP | 0 H | 0 ER | 0 BB | 1 K#RedsST | @andrewabbott33 | @Reds pic.twitter.com/kc6Opki7zO

— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) February 26, 2024

I was waiting for regression to catch up to him last year and it never quite did. But in a full season in the majors this year, it certainly could. For one, I don't think a 26% strikeout rate is sustainable on only a mediocre 11.9% SwStr%.

Abbott's average fastball velocity was only 92.7 mph and while his trio of offspeed pitches (curve, sweeper, change) that he throws at various speeds helps that fastball play up a bit, it's still a tough task getting big-league hitters out consistently with an average fastball.

He also had only a 49.9% Zone% on his fastball, which shows me that he's likely often trying to work the corners and stay out of the middle of the zone (which is a good idea when you pitch half your home games in the HR factory known as Great American Ball Park), but it is also a recipe for more walks, too.

He was able to pitch around a lot of those walks and hits last season with an 80% strand rate, which isn't likely to hold up over the long term. And his xFIP of 4.59 from last year is a pretty good indicator that he's going to struggle with run prevention being a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark who is also walk-prone.

The ADP difference here between our rankings and his current ADP isn't quite as drastic as some others, but he's still not a young pitcher that I am excited about in terms of making a big second-year jump. I will be fading him accordingly.

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