X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Overvalued Infielders for 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

Jazz Chisholm - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer looks at five infield hitters to avoid for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Do they offer any fantasy value for 2023?

When playing fantasy baseball, the player pool is so deep you have to know it front and back. A key strategy I use when I am preparing for my fantasy baseball drafts is to narrow down my player pool.

While I am still about a month and a half from drafting some of my main teams, it's never too early to take a look at how things sit and formulate ideas.

Below are the five infield hitters I am most likely going to cross off from my player pool in 2023 in my 12-team leagues. You can also read part two of this series with these overvalued outfielders.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jose Abreu, 1B, Houston Astros

It's amazing how things can change. For a few years, Jose Abreu was a staple in my fantasy baseball lineups. Now I am out here fading him every chance I can get and I don't care how scarce first base is.

His ATC projection for 2023 is 21 HR, 78 R, 83 RBI, and a .272 average. For me, 21 home runs are too few from a starting first baseman, I don't care how good of an average he has. Last year, he hit .304, but only had 15 home runs, so there is no doubt he can hit for contact, but to be drafted in the top 90 as the fifth 1B off the board doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

You can find batting average in other positions and draft one of Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, C.J. Cron, and Christian Walker, and likely end up with a better roster than drafting Abreu at pick 90.

Now, if Abreu comes back to form and hits 25-30 HR, then I'm dead wrong. At age 36, how likely is that though? At this point in his career, he is likely a better real-life player than a fantasy player, and I can't risk a 15 HR season in my lineup from a key position.

 

Andres Gimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians

In 2022, Andres Gimenez had a nice season with 17 HR, 20 SB, 66 R, 69 RBI, and a .297 batting average. So why am I avoiding him in 2023?

Because I have no idea where those numbers came from and also because he burned me before.

In 2021, I was all-in on Gimenez as a source of cheap steals, and he was a disappointment, batting .218 with five HR and 11 SB in just 68 games played in the Majors.

Then he comes into 2022, hits for his highest batting average since 2016 Rookie Ball, hit more home runs than he has ever hit, and also has 20 steals.

Coming up as a prospect, it was known he was fast and he could steal. He was also known more for his defensive ability than his offensive ability. Has he developed or did he just have a career year?

If he repeats his production, he is a bargain, as he would be a top 50-60 fantasy player at an ADP of pick 84. If he bats .250 with eight home runs and 20 steals, then it isn't a bargain.

I just don't want to take that chance. I like to avoid players coming off of career years. Gimenez is young, just 24, and this could be the beginning of a great career. I just want to wait and see it and if he beats me, he beats me.

His ATC projection is essentially a repeat of last year's production with a .265 average: 16 HR, 21 SB, 72 R, and 67 RBI.

 

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson is a nice prospect with a promising career, but he is going too high in fantasy drafts with his ADP at pick 98.

His ATC projection is a .253 average with 20 HR, 73 R, 70 RBI, and 11 SB. This projection reminds me of a Ryan McMahon profile as last season McMahon hit .246 with 20 HR, 67  R, 67 RBI, and seven SB. McMahon's production on the Razzball Player Rater was 15th among 3B and 139th overall. It's not bad, but is the numbers of a fringe starting 3B in a 15-team league or a CI player in a 12-team league going in the top 100?

McMahon is going at pick 213 on average. He won't have the upside that Henderson has, but he has put up two consecutive seasons similar to this one, so I would say there is a higher floor from McMahon than there is from Henderson.

With only 34 Major League games under his belt, there is a lot more uncertainty with Henderson and he is being drafted as if his 80th percentile projection is his median projection. Henderson's prospect profile is that of a power hitter, but at age 21 in his first full major league season, how likely is that to happen?

If he produces somewhere between a Machado and a Devers, then you hit the jackpot. If he struggles and produces more like Yoan Moncada, then you put your team in a tough spot as third base is probably the most scarce position in 2023.

 

Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Miami Marlins

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going around pick 36 in NFBC drafts, which is the second 2B drafted behind Jose Altuve and ahead of Marcus Semien. What has he done to warrant such a high draft slot?

In 2021, he had a nice season with 18 HR, 70 R, 53 RBI, and 23 SB, with a .248 average in 507 plate appearances. In 2022, his ADP was in the 60s-70 range coming off of that season.

Then, through 60 games, he had 14 HR, 39 R, 45 RBI, and 12 SB with a .254 average. Fantasy managers are doubling these numbers and assuming if healthy, Chisholm can produce 28 HR, 80 R, 90 RBI, and 24 SB at least, because if he did it through 60 games, why can't he do it through 120 games or more?

Looking at 2022 further, he had a hot June where he hit seven home runs and doubled his home run total to 14. He also scored 18 runs, just three less than the first two months of the season combined as well. 50 percent of his home run production and 48 percent of his runs scored happened in one month of the season.

I'm not taking that away from Chisholm but it's clear he was not going to produce at the rate he was during the entire season. His batting average was dropping from .298 in March/April to .250 in May, to .254 in June.

Also in 2022, he hit just .143 vs. LHP. In fact, he has a career .223 average with just six of his 34 career home runs coming against left-handed pitching. With him likely moving to the outfield, is he someone that could sit out against LHP?

Lastly, even though he is young, we do not know how his back injury could affect his fantasy production. Will he be able to hit for power like he was doing during the first half of 2022?

ATC projects Chisholm to have 24 HR, 25 SB, 79 R, and 71 RBI, with a .244 average, which is pretty solid outside of the bad batting average.

That said, I think I'd be more likely to draft an Ozzie Albies, who ATC projects to have 24 HR, 14 SB, 82 R, 80 RBI, and a better .260 batting average who is also going one round later on average than Chisholm. Albies was going in the second round in 2022 and we can now get him in the fourth round because he isn't fresh in people's minds. Albies' injuries are less of a long-term concern for me as well.

 

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fantasy baseball players love their prospects and boost them up so much.

Last season, Cruz did have some nice power/speed numbers with 17 HR and 10 steals through 87 games played. If playing 150 games, that would be on pace for 29 home runs and 17 steals.

When one looks at his ATC projection for 2023, it is similar to the above pace with 25 HR, 17 SB, 79 R, 74 RBI, and a .244 average. This looks very similar to Jazz Chisholm's projection and Cruz is going around pick 65 in NFBC Online Championship drafts vs. Chisholm at pick 36.

What concerns me about Cruz is his strikeouts. He had a 34.9% strikeout rate, and it is difficult to produce consistently with such a high strikeout rate. He hit .233 last year with a .317 BABIP, and that number could be the same or even worse until his approach at the plate changes. I think a .244 average is optimistic in the projection.

I can't take a core piece of my lineup with an unknown batting average. I like his power and speed potential, but Cruz is going to have a wide range of outcomes and I am not willing to take the risk of grabbing him.

Dansby Swanson is projected for 23 HR, 13 SB, 85 R, 79 RBI, and a .253 average. His ADP is 20 picks later and he has a more proven track record in the MLB.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF