On The Clock: What To Do At Pick 1.12

July 7, 2020

Justin Carter advises fantasy football owners on how to approach the 1.12 pick in the first round of 2020 drafts. Should you go with a RB, WR, TE, or QB and who presents the best value around that ADP?

Welcome to a new series as we head towards fantasy redraft season. "On The Clock" will help breakdown some of the tough decisions you might be facing at various points in your fantasy drafts, helping you make good decisions about what players you should be targeting.

We're starting with pick 1.12 in 12-team leagues, which also means we're looking at pick 2.01 in those leagues as well. What should you do at the first/second round turn? What strategies should you employ? Which players best fit those strategies?

Let's figure that out. *insert that sound ESPN makes when your pick arrives* You're on the clock.

What To Do At 1.12 (and 2.01)

Alright, it's time for you to make your first two picks of the 2020 fantasy draft. You've got 90 seconds to make each decision, and since you won't pick again until 3.12, you've got to nail these picks.

Before we can analyze what you should do here, let's figure out which players are definitely off the board.

The top five running backs will be gone. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry aren't falling to 12. Wide receiver Michael Thomas 100 percent isn't falling that far either, and based on current ADP I'd be surprised to see Davante Adams still on the board this far down. Dalvin Cook may or may not be gone, depending on his holdout situation. If he plays, he's likely gone by 1.12.

But this still leaves you with a handful of strong options. Guys who might be available here in PPR include running backs Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones, while wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Godwin could be on the board as well. Nick Chubb comes into play in standard.

So, what do you do? Let's talk through some of the various decisions you could make.

Take Two Running Backs

This is a popular strategy this year because running back's a pretty top-heavy position, but does it lose effectiveness if you don't have a top-seven pick?

If you're playing in standard-scoring leagues, the numbers about taking running backs speak for themselves here. Let's say the board falls in such a way that you're able to get Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb at the turn. That's a strong start. Per FantasyPros' projections, those two are predicted to outscore every wide receiver with the exception of Michael Thomas, whose projected total is about four points higher than Mixon's. A decision to take a pair of running backs here maximizes the total fantasy points you're going to get from these two picks.

That gap doesn't exist in PPR, where you might be looking at something like Mixon/Ekeler at this spot, but something that holds true in all formats is that the running back position peters out pretty quickly. Your next picks are at 36 and 37th overall. Running backs with an ADP between, say, 30 and 40 right now in PPR are: Melvin Gordon, Chris Carson, Le'Veon Bell, and David Johnson.

All of those players have good upside, but also have some limitations in that they don't have the same monopoly on their team's run game that the backs available at the first/second round turn have. Gordon's sharing a backfield with the underrated Phillip Lindsay. Carson's eternally underrated but might lose carries to Carlos Hyde, even if he shouldn't. Bell plays for Adam Gase. Johnson looked cooked in 2019.

Starting with two running backs isn't going to be as good as it theoretically could be if you picked at, say, 1.04 and got an Ezekiel Elliott and Miles Sanders start, but the backs available at this point are still very good players who'll get a large enough opportunity share to finish as fantasy RB1s.

Take A Running Back And A Wide Receiver

This is the "split the difference" move. Take a running back. Take one of the top receivers since they're getting undervalued. Build a balanced core.

In this case, let's say you get Joe Mixon and Julio Jones. In theory, you should love this start. You get a high-upside running back in Mixon as well as a lock-and-load WR1 in Julio Jones.

What I like about this approach is you get potential high-level contributors at two positions. It's the lowest risk move you can make at this stage, giving you multi-positional strength. It also lets you dip your feet into two pools that I like a lot: the second level of running back and the top level of wide receiver.

As I mentioned above, I think the third/fourth-round running backs all come with a few too many question marks for me to be comfortable with one of them as my RB1. Taking a back at 1.12 gets you someone who might not have the upside of that top five -- unless Dalvin Cook is still there, as he has overall RB1 upside if you're willing to risk the holdout risk -- but who does have a good situation on their hands, and then it gets you one of the projected WR1s as well.

Take Two Wide Receivers

This really just magnifies the issues with the previous build. Getting two wide receivers early on will produce more PPR points than going with two running backs, but it's really, really hard to make an argument for why you should do this when you factor in how much stronger the wide receivers available in the third and fourth rounds are going to be.

Still, going against the grain can be a viable strategy, especially if you're in a league where people committed heavily at running back in the first 11 picks. I think I'm largely against the strategy of going double receiver at the turn, but what if you're in a league where things get a little weird early on? Here's a proposed scenario.

The first six picks are still the top five running backs and Michael Thomas. Dalvin Cook goes seventh. That leaves four players to go before you pick. Someone takes Joe Mixon. Someone takes Davante Adams, because you aren't getting that lucky. Two picks left. Someone in your league takes a big reach and grabs Lamar Jackson because of the hype and because someone in a home league always reaches too far for a quarterback. That leaves us at 1.11 with just two receivers gone. Even if the 1.11 takes DeAndre Hopkins, you can still do something like Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill at the turn. And maybe the 1.11 goes Kenyan Drake or Austin Ekeler because they're seeing a run on running backs and don't want to get left behind. Then, you can start Hopkins/Julio, which is even better.

Basically, if the draft board goes heavy on backs early and you have the chance to get two top five guys at the turn, this is a good strategy. If you can get two top four guys, even better. But if all that's on the board is Hill and Chris Godwin, don't try this strategy. Go with Hill and a running back, or go with two running backs.

Use One Pick On A Quarterback?

Hey, you could pick Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson here, right?

No. Don't do it. You can get a strong quarterback later on; you can't get players as strong at other positions later on. Unless you're in Superflex, don't consider a quarterback yet.

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