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Brian Rudd identifies draft sleepers at first base for 2021 fantasy baseball leagues. These 1B sleepers are strong middle and late-round draft targets due to high upside compared to ADP.
The first base position has some high-end options such as Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, and Jose Abreu. All are typically going in the top 40 of most mixed-league drafts. But getting one of the top guys isn't imperative.
There are plenty of other viable alternatives available later in drafts. Whether it is power, batting average, or runs and RBI that fantasy managers are searching for, the first base position is filled with reasonably-priced options.
Here we'll take a look at five potential sleepers who should provide solid value in the mid-to-late rounds. If you end up waiting to fill your first base or corner infield spot, these players can get the job done, and at a discounted rate.
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Hunter Dozier, Kansas City Royals
Following a breakout 2019 season in which he hit .279 with 26 homers, Hunter Dozier took a step back in 2020. He hit just .228 with six home runs in his 186 plate appearances, though a career-best 14.5% BB% still resulted in a solid .344 on-base-percentage. Take a look at his Statcast data.
There was a lot of red on Dozier's Baseball Savant page in 2018 and 2019, as his Hard Hit% and average Exit Velocity, among other things, were strong. The drop-off in 2020 was very noticeable, but he likely deserves at least a bit of a pass for his struggles. Dozier missed the start of the season after testing positive for COVID-19 and never seemed to quite get on track.
One factor seemingly working in Dozier's favor is the commitment the Royals have made to him. The 29-year-old signed a four-year deal at the end of February, an indication that the team has faith in a rebound, and that he should be playing almost every day. Dozier is starting to creep up in drafts, but still has a chance to significantly outperform his draft-day cost.
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
As the season draws closer, it's becoming increasingly clear that Andrew Vaughn will join the major league roster early in 2021. Widely regarded as the top prospect in the White Sox organization, he has yet to play above Single-A, but all reports were positive at the alternate site last season.
Vaughn profiles as someone who could hit .300 with 30-plus homers at some point, and has a strong chance of succeeding right out of the gate. He is starting to move up draft boards, with an ADP of 253 in Draft Champions contests the past two weeks, a significant move from his 305 January ADP.
Even with his cost on the rise, Vaughn is worth targeting in drafts. He should provide a solid batting average and decent power in his first taste of the big leagues, while hitting in a loaded White Sox lineup.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto has been a shell of his former self the past three seasons, a span in which he has recorded a .265/.382/.420 line. While he has remained an on-base machine, the batting average and .155 ISO pale in comparison to the .313 average and .228 ISO he had for his career entering 2018.
Votto burst out of the gate with homers in his first two games in 2020, but then he hit just .160/.299/.235 across his next 97 plate appearances. A .182 BABIP over that span certainly didn't help, but clearly he was struggling.
Votto then took a few days off to work on some things and was excellent upon his return. While his K% jumped to an uncharacteristically high 24.8% the rest of the way, the power surged, and he posted a .258/.385/.557 line with eight homers over his final 117 plate appearances.
Votto isn't the hitter he once was, but showed late in 2020 that he can still hit for some power. He can't be counted on to be a batting average asset anymore, but he's going well outside the top 300 in NFBC Draft Champions drafts over the past month, leaving plenty of room for profit.
Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals
From 2014 to 2019, Carlos Santana reached 660 plate appearances in every season and averaged 27 home runs per year. He even tied a career-high with 34 jacks in 2019, and more consistent mid-round production was what fantasy managers were counting on heading into 2020.
Santana failed to deliver, though, as he hit just .199 with eight homers during the shortened season. A .212 BABIP, well below his .266 career mark, played a large role in his struggles, and he still managed to get on base at a .349 clip as his BB% remained strong.
Santana signed a two-year deal with Kansas City in December, and should slot into the middle of an improved Royal offense. He's unlikely to rebound to the .281 batting average of 2019, as that was just as much of an aberration as his 2020 mark. Even so, Santana should get back to the .240-.250 range along with 20-plus home runs and a healthy dose of counting stats in his full-time role. That makes him a potential bargain at his reduced price.
Mitch Moreland, Oakland Athletics
In February, Mitch Moreland signed a one-year, $2.25-million deal with Oakland. He isn't likely to serve in a full-time role, but rather as the primary Designated Hitter vs right-handed pitching, and filling in at first base when Matt Olson needs a day off.
Moreland has shown increased power during the latter stages of his career. He blasted 19 home runs in 335 plate appearances in 2019, then followed that up with 10 bombs in just 152 plate appearances a season ago.
Moreland's 2020 campaign was a tale of two halves. He started the year on fire, hitting .328 with eight homers in 79 plate appearances with the Red Sox. Moreland did struggle following a trade to San Diego, where he posted a .203/.247/.362 line. While he clearly showed off more power in Boston, a BABIP swing (from .341 to .226) played a large role in the dip in production.
Moreland has shown that he can still be a productive bat, and finds himself in a pretty good spot in Oakland. His price has gone up a bit since latching on with his new team, but he is still going off the board after pick 400 in NFBC Draft Champions drafts in the past two weeks. The .265 batting average probably won't repeat, but Moreland is an attractive power source late in drafts.
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