First Basemen Set to Bust in 2021

February 14, 2021

Matt Musico identifies first basemen who could be busts and overvalued draft picks based on ADP in 2021 fantasy baseball leagues.

When it comes to fantasy baseball strategy, there's typically one thought motivating any owners' desire to draft a first baseman or select one off the waiver wire: to be a run producer.

Even if they're not going to help much in the batting average or steals category, all can be forgiven if they're hitting home runs and racking up RBI on a regular basis. Nabbing a good first baseman or two can be helpful in securing a solid floor for any fantasy baseball owner's squad. Not going with the right ones, or banking too much on potential that hasn't yet been realized can cause plenty of headaches throughout the season.

The following three first basemen all feel overvalued at the moment. They could have a solid 2021 season, but given their current positioning, your time and attention would be well spent looking elsewhere for players who can live up to the expectations attached to these areas of the draft board.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 56.43

There's no way around this: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been putting in work this offseason as a way to set himself up for success in 2021. That's incredibly exciting, and it's easy to want to get him on your squad in order to say you benefited from his eventual breakout performance. Doing so would be the stuff of legends, like nabbing Mike Trout before his first full MLB season in 2012. But the thing is, whether it happens or not for Vladito this upcoming season is anyone's guess, and his current ADP is essentially because of the excitement around his weight loss.

Through his first two big-league seasons, he's been a slightly above-average hitter (105 wRC+ in '19, 112 in '20). His 92.5 mph average exit velocity from this past season ranked among the top 15 hitters in baseball, but his barrels per plate appearances actually put him just outside the top 50. While Guerrero's power took a step forward in 2020, as his ISO went from .162 to .199, he won't realize the draw-dropping potential that made him a top prospect until his batted-ball profile makes a shift.

His soft-hit rate (20.8% to 14.2%) and hard-hit rate (34.4% to 38.8%) both went in the right direction last season. However, it was accompanied by a 56.4% ground-ball rate (a five-percentage point increase from 2019) and a 27.9% fly-ball rate (a drop of nearly six percentage points). While Guerrero's plate discipline improved during his sophomore season, the true test will be how things continue to shake out over the course of a full season in 2021, which will be his age-22 campaign.

He's got a lot to learn and grow from, especially at such a young age, and it's hard to accept those bumps in the road (without having a sense of how frequent or infrequent they could be) at his current ADP.

Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 148.74

If there's one thing that should jump off the page when taking a look at Ryan Mountcastle's stats from his rookie season with the Orioles, it should be his BABIP. His .398 BABIP was the sixth-highest in 2020 among hitters with at least 140 plate appearances. This was accomplished without much of an eye-popping batted-ball profile, either -- Baltimore's rookie first baseman posted a 19.4% line-drive rate with a 43.9% ground-ball rate, a 19.4% soft-hit rate, and a 34.7% hard-hit rate.

What's concerning here is his plate discipline. That 21.7% strikeout rate looks mighty nice for someone who could be a run production and provide some power at a hitter-friendly home ballpark, but it's actually quite alarming when scrolling down and seeing that it's paired with a 16.2% swinging-strike rate. He also did a lot of swinging during his first taste of big-league action, evidenced by his 58.8% swing rate, which was the second-highest in the majors. Mountcastle's 83.1% swing rate on strikes was the third-highest, which is a good situation to be aggressive in, but it was accompanied by a 42.0% chase rate, which was also among the highest in the league.

This was all paired with a 72.5% contact rate, which was barely inside the top 160 hitters. Unless there's a change in approach heading into 2021, there seems to be a good bit of regression on tap for the soon-to-be 24-year-old with a full 162-game schedule on tap.

Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 169.89

Since debuting for the Phillies in 2017, Rhys Hoskins has been a mostly consistent fantasy baseball contributor when looking at his season-long statistics. In the shortened 2020 season, he posted a .258 ISO and 140 wRC+, which were both the highest they've been since he burst onto the scene as a rookie. He's also projected to hit in the middle of a lineup that has a number of offensive weapons in front of him, like Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto, to name a few.

Even with all of that going for him, there are concerning underlying statistics that can't be ignored.

Hoskins' 50.4% fly-ball rate since 2017 is second in baseball, which would feel like a good thing since that hypothetically gives him the most chances to hit home runs. What's concerning, though, is he's continually watched his infield-fly rate climb with each season. After posting an 8.8% rate in this category as a rookie, that number has risen to 11.3%, 15.3%, and 17.9% in the three years that followed.

Then, there's his increasing swinging-strike rate. That number has also climbed each season, going from 7.1% to 7.9% to 8.5% to 10.0%. His strikeout rate has continued to hover around the 21-25% range, but one would have to imagine that will change if this trend continues. Something else that has increasingly gotten worse since 2017 is Hoskins' contact rate. After making contact at an 81.2% clip as a rookie, that number has decreased each year, culminating in 2020 with a 75.9% rate.

Last, but most certainly not least, is Hoskins' performance against the most common pitch he sees each season: the four-seam fastball. His wRC+ against this pitch has fallen a full 100 points (206 to 106) since 2017, and more importantly, his ISO has taken a consistent nosedive during the same span of time (.441, .304, .240, .135). It looks like the 27-year-old took a step forward in some respects during 2020, but there should be concern over whether it'll be sustainable over 162 games.

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