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Five Deep First Base Options: 2016 Draft Values

Every year, there are a handful of players that make a significant impact but garnered no recognition or any sort of hype whatsoever in the offseason. Whether it be for power, average, stolen bases, or anything else that brings a smile to fantasy owners’ faces, there are always deep sleepers lurking at the 1B position.

In 2015, we saw Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind take flight off the list of deep sleepers for 1B. Their performances last year led to a boost in their ADP for this year. Below are five first basemen who may turn some heads this coming season.

Editor's Note: Check out our new fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.

First Base Draft Fliers

C.J. Cron

Last year for the Los Angeles Angels was a tough one. Despite a renaissance from Albert Pujols, the return of Garrett Richards, and the usual wow factor provided by Mike Trout, the Angels came up short in their playoff hopes. Some may have seen this coming, but some may have been more hopeful. Aside from all of the negativity surrounding the 2015 Angels, there was one bright spot that may have been overlooked: C.J. Cron.

Albert Pujols was reserved for the DH role much of the time in 2015, giving Cron some action at 1B as well as some regular playing time; something that he probably was not used to. In 2015, Cron played in 113 games. Previously, the most games he had played at the Major League level were 79.

 In these 113 games and 404 PA in 2015, Cron managed to hit .293 with 16 home runs and 51 RBI. Not bad for a third year player being thrown into the fire. Behind the simpler numbers was a .439 SLG, showing us that Cron can really crank it. In 2012 and 2014, his two near-full seasons in the minors, Cron had a .516 and a .428 SLG respectively. With more PA, it may not be out of the question for Cron to approach those numbers in the bigs.

The main issue with Cron lies in his ability to get on base; his Major League career OBP is sub-.300. His BB% was also a meager 4.2% in 2015. But in just two seasons, Cron has been able to improve his Contact % and also decrease his SwStr%. This tells us that improved plate discipline is not out of the question, and we may see boosts in average, RBI, and R categories in 2016.

 

Dustin Ackley

A lefty with some pop making his home in Yankee Stadium; what’s not to love? Believe it or not I’m not talking about Mark Teixeira, but his backup Dustin Ackley. Last year, Mark Teixeira was experiencing a great resurgence, hitting to the tune of .255/.357/.548 and 31 home runs. Tex managed to do all of that in just 111 games. Just when we thought he would enter full rebound mode, Tex landed on the DL yet again with a bone bruise that ended up being a fracture. Greg Bird filled in for the most part, and we thought that Greg Bird would be the Yankees’ sure fire backup at 1B heading into 2016; until Bird suffered a torn labrum before Spring Training.

Now, the Yanks look to Dustin Ackley to spell Teixeira. Ackley is not going to blow you away with his numbers. He only managed to hit .231 in 264 PA last season. After being brought over from Seattle, Ackley’s playing time was nearly non-existent. But a closer look reveals that Ackley may be able to provide the Yankees with exactly what they need.

Last season, all but one of Ackley’s 10 home runs were hit to right field. At Safeco Field, the measurements of right field were 326 feet to the right foul pole and 380 feet to right center. Yankee Stadium measures 385 feet to right center, but only 314 to the right foul pole. Those 12 less feet to right field may seem insignificant but with a guy like Ackley, every inch counts. For a lefty who pulled 43.5% of his balls in 2015, Ackley will certainly feel right at home in Yankee Stadium.

 

Travis Shaw

How long are we going to sit back and trick ourselves into thinking that the Hanley Ramirez at 1B experiment is going to work? Let’s face it folks; Hanley is done both in the field and at the plate. The Red Sox need to continue their infield youth movement, and what better way to do it than to give Travis Shaw the starting 1B job? Mookie Betts and Xander Boegarts did an amazing job in 2015 after gaining to trust of the organization for a full-time role, and I am confident that Travis Shaw would be able to do the same.

 In just 65 games last year at the Major League level, Travis Shaw was able to hold his own. He finished with a .822 OPS and great plate discipline. Shaw only swung at 60.0% of pitches in the strike zone but made contact on 88.2% of those pitches. His SwStr% was only 9.0%, meaning that if Shaw swung at pitches, he was making the most of those swings.

The Sawx are coming into 2016 with high expectations. There are many storylines associated with Boston, namely the acquisition of David Price in free agency and David Ortiz’s farewell tour. It might not be long before we have a third storyline; the emergence of Travis Shaw at 1B.

 

Hyun Soo Kim

When we think of an international player in MLB, our mind immediately takes us to Latin America. However in recent years, there has been an influx of Asian ball players, and names like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, Jung Ho Kang, and many others have been exciting additions to the MLB family. In 2016, Hyun Soo Kim has the potentials to be one of these additions.

Hailing from South Korea and beginning his rookie year in 2016, we really don’t know what to make of Kim. What we do know is that in the KBO, there has been a direct correlation between his BB%, K%, and ISO in the last three years. When Kim is walking more and striking out less, his ISO has been pretty substantial. Specifically, Kim walked 38 times more than he struck out in 2015. In that seam season, Kim hit 28 dingers. Coincidence? I think not.

Even if Kim comes over and his production is half of what it was in the KBO, the Baltimore Orioles would still have themselves a serviceable 1B. It will be interesting to see where Kim may end up in a lineup that is based on pure power. If he succeeds, it will most likely be one of the great stories of the 2016 season.

 

Chris Colabello

Toronto has somewhat of a problem on their hands heading into 2016, but it is not the worst problem in the world. The Jays have two very capable 1B in Justin Smoak and Chris Colabello. The former struggles offensively while the latter struggles defensively. Smoak has been known as an “all-or-nothing” type guy; throwing everything he has into his swing trying to put the ball over the fence and into the parking lot. While this has been helpful in certain scenarios, every at-bat counts and the Jays need guys to get on base, regardless of how much star power they have. Colabello is certainly that guy, but his glove holds him back from consideration as a full-time guy.

So a platoon it is. For now. In 2016, we could definitely make the case that Colabello will easily overtake Justin Smoak and establish himself in the first time role. With a 2015 slash line of .321/.367/.520 in just 360 PA, why not?

Behind the slash line is a .411 BABIP and an astounding 23.4% HR/FB. He is also one of the few players that hit more balls to center field (39.1%) than he pulled (34.5%) or hit to opposite field (26.9%).

The main thing that keeps Colabello from being a star is the aforementioned playing time conundrum. Without Smoak in his way, Colabello would be the every day 1B in baseball’s best offensive lineup. Factor in the cozy parameters of the Rogers Centre, and everything is there for Colabello to shine. He has some eligibility at OF, which helps his case immensely. The Jays have built a team that allows for flexibility and Colabello has a lot to bring to the table. If he finds his way to regular playing time, he could be 2016’s number one draft day steal.

 

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