Fantasy Trade Deadline Advice - The Bigger Picture

The MLB trade deadline came and went like a category five hurricane (or typhoon, for those on the other side of the Pacific). We are still picking up the pieces, trying to make sense of what is left in the aftermath. This year, the rich got richer in L.A. and New York while non-contenders like Miami and Baltimore dealt away quality players for peanuts in return to cut costs. Wait, that's every year in baseball.

The real-life deadline brought a flurry of activity, but in fantasy leagues, the trade deadline often comes and goes with no warning. Teams at the top of the standings don't need to make major moves, contenders near the middle of the standings may be reluctant to shake things up too much, and those near the bottom have probably stopped paying attention altogether. You can pin your hopes on finding a second-half waiver-wire gem but the chances are slim. The reality is unless you are sitting pretty in first place, you can benefit from the following strategies before your league's trade deadline hits.

With apologies to points-league guru @Nt_BurtReynolds, this advice will apply exclusively to roto leagues. The 5x5 category format is still the most popular and also the one that requires more specific strategies to pull off a successful late-season push to the playoffs.

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Narrow Your Focus

Chances are that your focus on draft day was something along the lines of "get good players." Not going to lie - that's a solid plan.

If you're a seasoned fantasy player, as most of our RotoBaller readers are, then you had an idea of which positions and categories you wanted to prioritize early and where the tier breaks naturally fell. The goal remains the same and that's to build the best team possible in all facets. You may or may not have emphasized the premium categories of steals or saves but it's unlikely you threw in the towel completely on them. The concept of punting categories isn't an overly popular one because you are intentionally putting your team at a disadvantage with no guarantee it will pay off.

Early in the season, fantasy managers aim to be strong across all categories and early-season moves will address weaknesses in an attempt not to fall behind. By the time August hits, it's time to take a hard look in the mirror (i.e. league standings) and assess the state of your team. Time is short, so it's crucial that you spend a fair amount of time evaluating league standings to see where you're behind, where you're ahead, and where you can realistically make gains.

Face it - if you are outside the top-three in the standings, you need to do something more than play the waiver wire. It's time to be proactive in the trade market before the deadline hits.

Punt Time

The previous point begs the obvious question: is it time to punt categories where you have little chance of making gains in the standings? Of course it is.

A rotation of Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Jesus Luzardo, and Zach Eflin looked great on draft day but it would have tanked your pitching stats this year.

If you are dead last in ERA and/or WHIP, you may as well aim to pile up as many Ks and Wins as possible by streaming as many starting pitchers as your innings limit will allow. That means pitchers like Touki Toussaint, Nick Pivetta, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jesus Luzardo are now viable pickups along with any hard-throwing rookie who is bound to get blown up in his first start but still record six strikeouts.

Of course, this is about trade advice so the best SP targets in that same vein include Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Max Fried, and Kenta Maeda.

For those who are ready to punt saves, as I have personally done in one league already (see below), but want to maintain strong ratios, target pitchers whose recent numbers reflect improvement over their season-long stats such as: Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, German Marquez, and Madison Bumgarner.

Wherever you rank in stolen bases, there is a low chance your team will rise more than a notch or two from its current level. Unless you play in a shallow league of 10 teams or less, steals are hard to find on the waiver wire and the best options come with no power and a lackluster batting average. Players like Myles Straw are likely to do more harm than good in your lineup.

The top speedsters won't be traded easily, if at all, by competitors unless they have multiple SB leaders on their roster. Rather than overpaying, don't be afraid to admit that you will lose steals and trade away any of your remaining stolen base threats to gain an edge elsewhere.

Batting average is tough to make significant gains at this point in the season, so it's also a smart idea to sell out for counting stats if you're unlikely to rise above the middle of the pack in AVG. In this case, try to acquire players like Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall, Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Lowe, and Kyle Seager. Jared Walsh is a great buy-low target since he is currently on IL and the Angels are ready to pack it in with Anthony Rendon out for the season.

You don't have to punt somewhere in order to be an active participant in the trade market, though. The first place to start is by taking another look at the standings in order to find a viable trade partner. If only there were a Match.com for fantasy trades... Alas, we have to do the legwork ourselves.

Find a team ranked somewhere between third-ninth in the standings. The top two aren't likely to want to make deals to help anyone below them in the standings and they are dealing from a position of strength anyway so you aren't going to get a fair deal if they know what they are doing. You wouldn't want to inadvertently help their team improve anyway. The teams at the bottom are doubtful to have much of use and aren't going to be too inspired to help anyone above them either. Plus, the optics of a bottom dweller making trades late in the season can invoke the whole veto discussion and that's just not worth getting into. Match up with a team somewhere in the middle and let the bartering begin.

Personal Example

I participate in way too many leagues, most of them filled with other industry analysts. Among those, the one that is most meaningful is the RotoBaller Analysts League because the competitors are my immediate colleagues, some of which I consider friends. For that reason, the best way to explain how I put my words into action will come from a recent example of how I assessed my own roster in that league.

Here are the current standings. Names have been omitted to protect the innocent and not embarrass those at the bottom of the standings. We all have off years. My team is the one highlighted in blue.

Also, I would hate to give @amoralpanic a bigger head since he's in first place in this league and the dynasty league he somehow dominates every damn year. But I digress...

I am currently fifth in the standings, so there's still some hope of making a late push despite being 27 points behind the leader. Don't take away my hope - it's all I have left.

Beginning on offense, it's obvious that there is one category to focus on and it happens to be the toughest of all - steals. I am among the leaders in power but second-lowest in stolen bases.

After hours of combing through the waiver wire (OK, more like 5 minutes), the best option I could find to help in the speed category was Nick Ahmed. That inspired me to take my own advice and pull the trigger on a trade that would exchange power for speed. Loyal RotoBaller followers will recognize the team name of my trade partner in this deal. If you haven't already, you should really check out Catcher's Corner btw.

Episode 16 is live! We talked to @Nt_BurtReynolds and @PhilOfSports about EVERY deadline deal and the fantasy impact on all players involved. Check it out for your rest of season fantasy decisions https://t.co/ox3AjrppB5

— Catcher’s Corner (@corner_catcher) July 31, 2021

Onto the trade. Although I stated earlier that moving up in the steals category was an uphill battle, it's the one I need to fight. The player I sought wasn't a one-trick pony though, at least not anymore.

Cedric Mullins was a surprise breakout in the first half and has maintained it so far in the second half. In fact, he's hitting .369 with two HR, four SB, and 12 runs in 16 games since the All-Star break. By contrast, Austin Meadows is batting .250 with four HR, 18 RBI, 10 R, and no steals in 17 games since the break. In terms of pure value, these players are about even. It's a matter of swapping to fill needs and, ideally, a win-win for both teams.

The pitchers were simply throw-ins to balance things out. I picked up Taillon off waivers two weeks ago so he was dispensable to me. I expect Miley to help my ratios more and I'm third-highest in Ks so that's another trade-off I can afford. I still need gains in wins but that will come from vigorous streaming down the stretch. Saves are a lost cause, intentionally so.

I made the decision months ago to punt saves when I dealt my only true closer, Aroldis Chapman, in exchange for Lance Lynn and Aaron Civale. Even though Civale ultimately landed on IL and appears lost for the year, it has turned into a net positive with the season Lynn is having compared to Chapman. Plus, I've felt a sense of freedom from the need to chase closers-in-waiting all season. For what it's worth, I did draft Joakim Soria and Adam Ottavino but the attempt to grab discount closers didn't pan out this time. Punting wasn't a draft day strategy but the state of my roster necessitated it.

Ideally, if I can pull off one more deal before our league's deadline exactly one week from the day of this article's publication, it would be for an SP2/SP3 type on a good team that can add a solid amount of wins and strikeouts. Easier said than done. There are few reliable starters that fantasy managers are willing to part with at this point in the season. My starting point will be with the teams lower than me in the standings because they will be more desperate to mix things up and some may even be apathetic enough at this point to take a lesser deal.

TL;DR

There are approximately 50 games left on the Major League schedule and less than two months in the fantasy baseball season. That's plenty of time for things to change in the pennant races, both in reality and fantasy. But fantasy leagues generally impose trade deadlines in early or mid-August to maintain fairness and prevent bad deals from going down. Rather than letting the deadline come and go, take advantage of the situation to improve your chances at a championship.

• Assess your place in the standings and what areas should become the primary focus the rest of the season.
• Don't be afraid to ignore or "punt" certain categories if necessary.
• Be realistic about where you can make gains and what type of trades you can successfully pull off to make those gains happen.
• Initiate talks and make trade offers a week before the deadline so you have time to negotiate.
• Find league mates whose strengths align with your weaknesses and vice versa. Aim for win-win deals rather than trying to fleece other managers.
• Don't expect the waiver wire to save you down the stretch! Be proactive in the trade market before it's too late.

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