X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

RB Strength of Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups (2024)

Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Scott looks at 2024 fantasy football strength of schedules and the best RB matchups for the rest of the season. Target these fantasy football RBs in trades.

Last week, I dove deep into the WR strength of schedule for fantasy football and the wide receiver position. This week, I’ll go through the same process with fantasy RBs. The fantasy RB position has been volatile (to say the least) so far in 2024, with some big names going down with injuries, some big names about to make their season debuts, and, most recently, forgotten RBs like Sean Tucker bursting onto the fantasy scene.

The fantasy strength of schedule has been near and dear to my heart ever since I joined the fantasy football industry back in 2020. It is something I always gravitated toward before I started producing content, loving to see that green color font for my skill players’ opponents (depending on the platform). I have brightened the shade of green color a bit in the charts I produce, but it’s meant to produce the same response and reaction.

Psychologically, for me, that bright green color can add an extra layer of confidence and excitement for the upcoming fantasy weekend. And while the results will never match the pre-game excitement 100% of the time, I play fantasy football to have fun, and the lead-up to the games each week is just as (and sometimes more) fun than the actual games for me.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SOS) Process

In this article, I will present the strength of the schedule for the fantasy RB position, with a focus on the immediate future (Weeks 7-10). You may have read my preseason article series for RotoBaller, where I covered projected fantasy strength of schedule for the skill positions. The criteria I use before the season starts differs from what I will be using for this strength of schedule now that we are six weeks in.

A player’s opponent's strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that player in a given week. But it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players.

By looking at current and future matchup difficulties and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., “Next four Games”, “Stretch Run,” and Fantasy Playoffs), you can strategize for potential trade attempts.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up. And vice versa.

To that end, along with the “Next four Games” zoomed-in view, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at the “Stretch Run” matchups (Week 11-14), rather than just being displayed in the full-season color-coded chart.

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then, we’ll look closer at the different scheduled time frames.

Rather than simply looking at raw fantasy points allowed, I use an opponent-adjusted system that compares those raw fantasy points allowed to what the opponent typically scores.

For example, if Team A gives up 25 fantasy points to the Ravens’ RB group and Team B gives up the same number of points to the Raiders’ RB group, raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B being the same matchup difficulty versus RBs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through six weeks, the Ravens’ RBs (mostly Derrick Henry) have averaged 29.4 points per game, and the Raiders have averaged 19.2 points per game. Using the POA allowed, Team A held the Ravens 4.4 points under their average (a POA allowed of -4.4), while Team B allowed the Raiders to score 5.8 points above their average (a POA allowed of +5.8).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams “figure it out.”

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy RBs (PPR format):

  1. Raw fantasy points allowed to RBs per game.
  2. POA allowed to RBs per game; season-long.
  3. POA allowed to RBs per game over the last three games.
  4. Rushing yards allowed to the RB position per game.

In my weekly data compiling and fantasy SOS process, I also break down the RB position further into matchup strength versus RB fantasy points from receiving only (PFR) and points from rushing only (PFRu). I will be addressing the SOS for this RB breakdown in a separate article.

 

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 7-17), with each weekly opponent, color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy RB position. Lower numbers ranked red indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

Higher number ranks with a green color represent easier matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for RBs is included at the end of the article.

This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual rank (1-32).

Also included are each team’s ROS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17) SOS score (average of opponent ranks in those time frames).

 

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

  • Next 4: Weeks 6-9
  • Stretch Run: Weeks 10-14
  • Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, I define each as follows:

  • Next 4: Weeks 7-10
  • Stretch Run: Weeks 11-14
  • Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

In this article, I will be looking at each time frame, and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for RBs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

For these time frame breakdowns, I also added the current primary RB for each team, as well as each of those RB’s PPR PPG and weighted opportunity share. Standard opportunity share looks at an individual RB’s number of opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) as a percentage of the team’s total opportunities.

Each opportunity type is assigned an equal value of one (e.g., one rush attempt and one target equals two opportunities).

“Weighted” opportunity is a metric created by Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. They incorporated red zone opportunities into the equation as opportunities within the opponent’s 20-yard line are more valuable than non-red zone opportunities. Weighted opportunities are assigned different values in and outside of the red zone.

 

Fantasy Football - Next 4 Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule over the next four games (Week 7-10). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule (with players added in) and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

Coming off of their Week 6 bye, the Dolphins sit atop the favorable RB schedule list over the next month. They are the only team with four “plus” matchups (opponents ranked 16th or worse versus RBs) and no bye.

They start with a bang against the 28th-ranked Colts (fifth-easiest matchup), a team with a +2.5 POA allowed to RBs on the season and +6.7 POA allowed over the last three games.

The Miami RB pecking order is difficult to decipher, with Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright combining for 32 rush attempts in Week 5. But De'Von Achane, who has dealt with injuries, is back to full practice participant, and I expect him to go off against the Colts.

Next up is D'Andre Swift and the Bears, with the second-most favorable next-four RB schedule. Chicago does have a bye in Week 6 but then faces the 19th-ranked Commanders, 22nd-ranked Cardinals, and 29th-ranked Patriots in their next three.

Swift has put his early season inefficiency and disappointment in the rearview mirror as of late. Swift scored fewer than 13 PPR fantasy points in the first two weeks. Over his last three games, he is averaging 23.8 PPG.

The third-easiest RB schedule over the next four belongs to the Bills, although that commences in Week 7 with a brutal matchup against the sixth-ranked Titans. And that one tough matchup is the only reason Buffalo is not at the top of this list.

In Weeks 8, 9, and 10, a hopefully healthy James Cook and the Bills’ RBs face the Seahawks (25th), Dolphins (30th), and Colts (28th), a three-game stretch that is unmatched in this time frame.

Seattle checks in with the fourth-most favorable next four RB schedule according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed process. Like the Bills, the Seahawks begin with a difficult matchup with the ninth-ranked Falcons. They have a Week 10 bye, so it is not the ideal schedule structure for this stretch. But, sandwiched between the Falcons and their bye, Seattle faces the Bills (31st) and Rams (24th).

Number five on the Next four list is Kyren Williams and the Rams. The Rams’ one tough matchup comes in Week 8 versus the second-ranked Vikings, but looking at their three-game set outside of that, only the Bills have a better trio of games.

Los Angeles gets the Raiders in Week 6 (26th), the Seahawks in Week 9 (25th), and the Dolphins in Week 10 (30th). Having already had his bye week, Williams is a locked-and-loaded, set-it-and-forget-it RB1 moving forward.

The sixth through 10th-most favorable Next four RB schedules are listed below:

  • Sixth: Falcons
    • Week 7: Seahawks (25th)
    • Week 8: Buccaneers (8th)
    • Week 9: Cowboys (21st)
    • Week 10: Saints (27th)
  • Seventh: Vikings
    • Week 7: Lions (Fourth)
    • Week 8: Rams (24th)
    • Week 9: Colts (28th)
    • Week 10: Jaguars (23rd)
  • Eighth: Titans
    • Week 7: Bills (31st)
    • Week 8: Lions (Fourth)
    • Week 9: Patriots (29th)
    • Week 10: Chargers (11th)
  • Ninth: Giants
    • Week 7: Eagles (13th)
    • Week 8: Steelers (10th)
    • Week 9: Commanders (19th)
    • Week 10: Panthers (32nd)
  • 10th: Eagles
    • Week 7: Giants (Seventh)
    • Week 8: Bengals (20th)
    • Week 9: Jaguars (23rd)
    • Week 10: Cowboys (21st)

 

Fantasy Football Stretch Run Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule for the regular season Stretch Run (Week 11-14).

Breece Hall finally looked like himself again in Week 6, with 23 touches for 169 total yards, including five catches. That’s more like it after an inexplicably dismal Week 4 and 5. With the addition of Davante Adams to the WR room and Nathaniel Hackett no longer calling the offensive plays, the arrow is pointing up for the entire Jets’ offense.

This, combined with their Stretch Run RB schedule, could have Hall winning managers their weeks at a crucial time during the fantasy season. The Jets do have their bye in Week 12, but their three-game stretch outside of the bye is in the realm of favorability on par with the Bills and Rams in the next four span. The Jets face the Colts (28th), Seahawks (25th), and Dolphins (30th)

The Patriots have the second-best Stretch Run RB schedule with their toughest opponent before their Week 10 bye, ranking 24th versus RBs (Rams).

As of this writing, I do not know if Rhamondre Stevenson will play in Week 7 or what the RB usage is going to look like in New England moving forward. I do know that, even after only one game, the Patriots offense looks more competent with rookie Drake Maye under center, which bodes well for the run game.

The Chiefs move from the middle of the pack in the next four (with tough matchups against the 49ers, Buccaneers, and Broncos in that span) to arguably the best RB schedule during the Stretch Run (since they do not have a bye).

After a messy few weeks of fantasy analysts trying to figure out the Chiefs’ backfield value following the leg injury to Isiah PachecoKareem Hunt has settled in as the RB to roster in Kansas City. Since taking his first snap in Week 4, Hunt’s RB Opportunity Share in Weeks 4 and 5 were 63% and 80%.

The term “bell cow” has faded from the fantasy football nomenclature over the years, but an 80% RB Opportunity Share is bell cow usage. However, Pacheco’s timetable for return from his broken leg may have him back in the proverbial saddle by the Stretch Run. Whoever the RB is, he’ll get three top-5 most favorable RB matchups in those four games.

Remember what I said about Kyren Williams? Well, he stays in the good graces of the schedule gods during the Stretch Run, with matchups against the Patriots (29th), Eagles (13th), Saints (27th), and Bills (31st).

It is hard to know if we will ever see Christian McCaffrey during the 2024 season. Those who hit the jackpot in drafting Jordan Mason for free may want McCaffrey to just heal up for 2025. Regardless, the 49ers face the fourth-most favorable Stretch Run RB schedule.

The sixth through 10th-most favorable Stretch Run schedules are listed below:

  • Sixth: Buccaneers
    • Week 11: BYE
    • Week 12: Giants (Seventh)
    • Week 13: Panthers (32nd)
    • Week 14: Raiders (26th)
  • Seventh: Dolphins
    • Week 11: Raiders (26th)
    • Week 12: Patriots (29th)
    • Week 13: Packers (16th)
    • Week 14: Jets (14th)
  • Eighth: Lions
    • Week 11: Jaguars (23rd)
    • Week 12: Colts (28th)
    • Week 13: Bears (15th)
    • Week 14: Packers (16th)
  • Ninth: Eagles
    • Week 11: Commanders (19th)
    • Week 12: Rams (24th)
    • Week 13: Ravens (Third)
    • Week 14: Panthers (32nd)
  • 10th: Seahawks
    • Week 11: 49ers (18th)
    • Week 12: Cardinals (22nd)
    • Week 13: Jets (14th)
    • Week 14: Cardinals (22nd)

 

Fantasy Football Playoffs Strength of Schedule

The following chart shows each team’s RB schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

Five teams with a Top 10 Stretch Run RB schedule remain in the Top 10 during the Fantasy Playoffs: Jets (Second), Lions (Fourth), Patriots (Fifth), Buccaneers (Sixth), and 49ers (10th).

The Cardinals, a team just outside of the ten-most favorable RB schedules during the Stretch Run, vaults to the top of the list during the Fantasy Playoffs. Whether James Conner maintains his stranglehold on Arizona’s backfield or rookie Trey Benson becomes more involved as the season progresses, Arizona faces the Patriots (29th), Panthers (32nd), and Rams (24th) in Weeks 15-17.

The Titans rejoin the party during the Fantasy Playoffs, with the third-most favorable RB schedule during that span. Tony Pollard looks like the primary RB in Tennessee thus far, and I do not see that changing later in the season.

Pollard is coming off one of his better games of the season, as he turned 17 carries into 93 yards and a score, finishing as the PPR RB15 for Week 6. During the Fantasy Playoffs, the Titans get the Bengals (20th), Colts (28th), and Jaguars (23rd) to close out the fantasy season.

The remaining top-10 favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedules are listed below:

  • Seventh: Saints
    • Week 15: Commanders (19th)
    • Week 16: Packers (16th)
    • Week 17: Raiders (26th)
  • Eighth: Broncos
    • Week 15: Colts (28th)
    • Week 16: Chargers (11th)
    • Week 17: Bengals (20th)
  • Ninth: Raiders
    • Week 15: Falcons (Ninth)
    • Week 16: Jaguars (23rd)
    • Week 17: Saints (27th)
  • 10th: 49ers
    • Week 15: Rams (24th)
    • Week 16: Dolphins (30th)
    • Week 17: Lions (Fourth)

Before I go, I will leave you with the ROS heat map schedules for each team for the RB position (Week 7-17), ordered from best to worst SOS scores. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating the fantasy strength of the schedule each week.

I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF