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Pierre Camus analyzes the fantasy impact of Mark Melancon joining the Giants, including whether he's a viable 2017 fantasy baseball draft pick, value or sleeper.
Mark Melancon wasn't in the running for a record-setting deal like fellow firemen Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen. He settled for $62 million over four years in San Francisco.
The Giants were in desperate need of a proven closer to solidify their bullpen. They now appear to have their man in place which should have a positive trickle-down effect on the entire pitching staff.
Melancon doesn't throw as hard and may not be as exciting as Chapman or Jansen, but is there a chance that he could be more valuable for fantasy owners in 2017?
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks
Melancon has quietly been the most reliable closer in the bigs since 2013. He came to Pittsburgh that year as a valuable setup man, recording 26 holds in the first half before taking over the closer role. He saved 16 in the second half of that season, followed by a 33-save season in 2014 and a league-leading 51 saves in 2015. Melancon made his third All-Star appearance and was on his way to another stellar season in 2016 before being traded. Once the Pirates realized their post-season run was over, he was sent to the Nationals and closed out 17 more games en route to free agency before landing in San Francisco.
His 131 saves over the last three years leads all closers, four ahead of Jansen. His strikeout rate doesn't match most of his contemporaries, but an 8.2 K/9 won't hurt fantasy owners either. Since moving to the NL, he hasn't posted an ERA over 2.50 or a WHIP above 1.00. There is little doubt that moving to a pitcher-friendly park in San Fran will keep those ratios at or below their current rate. Playing for a perennial contender like the Giants will keep Melancon in the running for the league lead in saves again.
It's practically a miracle that the Giants managed to reach the postseason in spite of their bullpen. As a team, they led MLB with 30 blown saves on the season. Santiago Casilla led the way (and the majors) with nine blown saves before being mercifully taken out of the closer role in September. He is now in Oakland, but the rest of San Francisco's bullpen should follow a similar hierarchy to last season.
Will Smith, who was acquired from Milwaukee at the trade deadline, should be the eighth-inning lefty option and primary handcuff. Smith wasn't overly impressive in his brief time with the club, posting a 2.95 without a single save. He did have a nice 34.7% K% and struck out nearly 13 per nine innings. The Giants dealt top prospect Phil Bickford to acquire Smith, so the front office must believe he has the stuff to be an important late-inning arm. He is definitely worth a late-round pick in leagues that record holds.
Hunter Strickland did nothing to show that he was closer material, blowing five of eight save opportunities last season. He could see time in the eighth inning but will have competition from fellow righty Derek Law. Law had a nice debut, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 14 holds. Both Strickland and Law have a K/9 comparable to Melancon's 8.2. Barring injury to Melancon and/or Smith, neither should see many save opportunities this season but could again see 15-20 holds apiece. Sergio Romo has saved 84 games for the Giants over the past nine years and served as a valuable setup man, but he is a free agent and it's unclear whether the team will bring him back.
An overlooked impact of Melancon signing in San Francisco could be a slight uptick in wins for their imposing starting staff. Despite posting the best ERA of his career, Madison Bumgarner won three fewer games in 2016 (15) than he had the previous two years (18). Johnny Cueto often took the bullpen out of the equation by throwing a league-leading five CG, so it's hard to imagine his win total going up too much. Jeff Samardzija barely finished with a winning record at 12-11 and only threw one complete game. With a bit more consistency, he could be in line for the most improvement.
Just knowing that one of the most reliable closers in the game is waiting to shut teams down in the ninth inning should give the entire staff a confidence boost. Given the health issues in New York and L.A., San Fran may enter 2017 with the best overall pitching staff in the National League, bolstered by the addition of Melancon for end-game situations.
