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Boston Red Sox OF JD Martinez is on a new team for the 2018 MLB season. Michael Grennell analyzes his move to the AL East to see whether his ADP will rise or fall.
The national nightmare is finally over. After weeks upon months of fantasy owners developing carpal tunnel syndrome from hitting F5 repeatedly, desperately searching for any new updates, J.D. Martinez has signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Boston Red Sox.
After accumulating a .251 average and .687 on-base plus slugging percentage with 24 home runs over his first three seasons with the Houston Astros, Martinez has become one of the top sluggers in the game. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has hit .300 with 128 home runs and a .936 OPS — the sixth highest OPS among players with at least 2,000 plate appearances over that time span.
The signing of Martinez does pose an interesting question for Boston now: Who will play where? Last season, the Red Sox sported an outfield trio of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts with Hanley Ramirez getting the majority of the playing time at designated hitter. Now, barring any trades or injuries, all four will be on the roster in 2018, along with Martinez. So who is going to lose playing time now in Boston? As Scott Boras undoubtedly skips down Yawkey Way whistling with glee, let's take a look at the what this signing will mean to fantasy owners this season.
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Heading to Greener Grass?
Splitting time between Detroit and Arizona last season, Martinez put up the best numbers of his career, batting .303 with a career-high 1.066 OPS and 45 HR. Martinez also set a career-high with a 10.8 percent walk rate, marking his fourth consecutive year of increasing his walk rate. While his strikeout rate was up almost one and a half percent from 2016, his 26.2 K% was the fourth-lowest of his career.
The one big concern for Martinez entering the season is how will his home run totals be affected by playing half of his games at Fenway Park? Last season, Comerica Park and Chase Field were two of the top-10 most hitter-friendly stadiums when it came to home runs. Fenway Park, on the other hand, was among the bottom 10 in the league. Martinez hit 24 of his 45 home runs to right-center or right field in 2017, and while Fenway's right field fence is the closest to home plate of the three parks, the distances to right-center and deep right-center field are between seven and 15 feet further at Fenway than either Comerica or Chase. In seven career games at Fenway Park, Martinez has never hit a home run there. While that will certainly change this season, fantasy owners should likely expect closer to 30 HR than 45 in 2018.
Moving into the Boston lineup, Martinez should see an increase in his counting numbers. After joining the Diamondbacks halfway through last year, he recorded 26 more RBI and nine more runs in 25 more plate appearances than his totals in Detroit. Arizona had the eighth-highest scoring offense last year, averaging 5.01 runs per game, while Boston was 10th in the league, averaging 4.85 runs per game.
With all that in mind, it seems like Martinez should be in line for roughly 35 HR, with 90 runs and 115 RBI in Boston. Our rankings currently have Martinez as the No. 8 outfielder, with a target draft range of early in the third round. Now that he's with the Red Sox, he is likely worth picking up in the late second round and might even be worth taking over Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge — our No. 7 outfielder.
As far as the effect his signing will have on the Red Sox outfield, it will primarily impact Jackie Bradley Jr. While Bradley was likely not going to have an impact in mixed leagues, he was may have had some value in AL-only leagues in 2018. Bradley hit 17 HR last year and 26 HR in 2016, and could've been in line for at least 20 HR this year. Based on his 14.5 percent HR/FB rate in 2017 — which was 3.5 percent lower than his average from the previous two seasons — 2018 could have seen a bump in his power numbers. Now barring trade or injury, Bradley will be undraftable in anything but deep AL-only leagues.
