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San Francisco Giants 3B Evan Longoria is on a new team for the 2018 MLB season. Andrew Swanson assesses his fantasy baseball value and early ADP.
After losing out to the Yankees in the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes and failing to lure Japanese star Shohei Ohtani, the Giants settled on a trade for third baseman Evan Longoria from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for outfielder Denard Span, infielder Christian Arroyo, and a pair of minor league pitching prospects.
Longoria, a former third overall pick of the Rays in the 2006 Amateur Draft, leaves Tampa Bay as the organization’s all-time leader in nearly every offensive statistic, including runs, hits, RBI, walks, doubles, and home runs.
The move makes sense for both teams, as the Giants added some much-needed production in for the middle of the lineup and an improvement defensively at third base. The rebuilding Rays were able to cut payroll while adding a talented young infielder in Arroyo and a veteran outfield in Span. What will it mean for Longoria's fantasy value now that he's moved away from the only team he's known?
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Gone But Not Forgotten
For fantasy purposes, the perception in the fantasy industry and among most fantasy baseball players is that Longoria, at age 32, is past his prime and set to continue on the decline as he plays out the remainder of his 10-year, $135.6M contract. But statistically speaking, Longoria is just two years removed from a career-high of 36 home runs in 2016, and his 86 runs batted in last season ranked eighth among all third baseman, and just nine behind perennial early-round pick Manny Machado.
Longoria’s hard contact percentage of 34.3% last season was his second-highest mark since 2014, while his directional spray chart numbers continue to be in line with his career averages. Although he hit the fewest home runs of his career in a season in which he logged at least 600 at-bats, an 11% increase in his ground ball rate from 2016 to 2017 and a 10% decrease in his fly ball rate in the same period greatly affected his power numbers. Moreover, when Longoria did hit the ball in the air, his HR/FB percentage dropped five percent last season, nearly five percentage points below his career average of 14.4%.
The fact that his medium and hard contact numbers did not decline along with his HR/FB suggest that Longoria still has pop in his bat, and a 25 to 30 home run season is not out of the question.
What is in question is how will he do playing for a new team against National League pitchers in the worst park for power hitters in the league. Perhaps the move to AT&T Park is not as bad for Longoria as many people think, as Tropicana Field is one of the worst hitter’s parks in the American League and consistently ranks in the bottom-five in home runs by right-handed hitters. AT&T Park is where home runs go to die, and no other park limits power production more than the yard by the Bay. But it dramatically affects left-handed power hitters more than righties, and 18 of Longoria’s 20 dingers in 2017 went to left or center field.
It is too early in the winter to project a starting lineup for the Giants, especially with the 2018 hot stove being anything but hot over the winter meetings. San Francisco GM Bobby Evans is actively looking to add one or two more bats to help bolster the SF batting order to help add pop alongside Buster Posey and Longoria, with Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutcheon as names floating around the Twittersphere.
As it stands, moving from the third spot in the Tampa Bay lineup with the protection of Logan Morrison and his 38 home runs to the Giants should be viewed as a lateral or negative move for Longoria. However, the addition of another power bat like Bruce to add protection in the four or five spot, mixed with Buster Posey’s ability to get on base in the two or three hole, could make the move to SF a positive for Longoria owners.
Our early expert consensus rankings suggest that a discussion of Longoria as a fantasy starter in standard 12-team leagues is a moot point, with the former Ray currently ranked 19th among third baseman and 136th overall. Third base is one of the deepest positions in baseball, with six different third basemen ranked in the first two rounds. Although Longoria will not be drafted among the top players at his position, his ability to score and drive in runs make him an attractive option for owners in deep mixed and NL only leagues. If he can return to his career averages in fly ball percentage and FB/HR rate, he might just be a steal at his current ADP.
