RADIO
Chris Gregory looks at fantasy football sleeper running backs after the 2023 NFL Draft. He looks at undervalued running backs, and RBs whose stocks are down.
No position in fantasy sports is as hotly debated as running back. At fantasy’s inception, running back was the paramount position. For 30+ years, drafting a stud RB with your first pick was not only advised but necessary. People who passed on the position typically struggled to keep up in traditional leagues.
Things are changing in fantasy football and the NFL, though. While RB was the most coveted position in our fake football game for decades, the extinction of workhorse running backs has forced even the most stubborn RB truthers to consider going “Zero RB” with their draft strategy. After all, the NFL is leaning more towards the pass than ever, and it’s working for them. In fact, of the past 20 Super Bowl-winning teams, only three ran the ball more than 47% of the time. So why would these offenses go back to the run?
With the RB landscape mired in timeshares and limited workloads, it makes sense that fantasy managers are torn between tanking at the position and selling out for a unicorn. For proof of this problem, look no further than this NFL Draft. Almost every quality RB in this rookie class went to a team with an established lead back. With that in mind, we are here to wade through the muck and tell you which backs are underrated, and which are bargain basement sleepers. Note: We will offer our valuation of these running backs based on where they should rank in applicable formats rather than where they do rank for most. We will also differentiate their values if there is a significant difference between formats. For example, if a player has significantly more value in redrafts than in dynasties, we will offer two different rankings.
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The MOST Undervalued Running Back
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB14
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB13
White’s average rank amongst fantasy analysts going into this NFL Draft was RB33, which is too low even if Tampa had drafted an RB early. While Tampa is taking a step back at quarterback next season, their offensive line should improve overall. The exit of Leonard Fournette also forecasts a volume increase for White, who is a tremendous pass-catching weapon with a high PPR floor as Tampa’s lead back.
What drives White's stock through the roof is the lack of competition Tampa has brought in this offseason. The only name truly worth knowing is Sean Tucker, who is a low-threat handcuff you can pair with White for very cheap. White's wide receiver-like 3.4% drop rate and his healthy 2.88 yards after contact on the edge are both tremendous, though. It should be hard for Tucker (an undrafted free agent) or Chase Edmonds to overtake. White is a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues.
Other Undervalued Running Backs
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB1
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB2
Let’s start with an easy one. Bijan is an elite prospect in most books, so he isn’t a sleeper. That said, his current ADP in redrafts (21st in non-Superflex) and dynasty startups (14th in non-SF) means he’s undervalued, even at his premium price. In fact, there isn’t a running back in dynasty that I would take over Bijan, and there’s exactly one (Christian McCaffrey) that I would consider taking ahead of him in redrafts.
Bijan’s status as a dynasty monster was solidified before we knew where he was going, but his landing spot made things even better. Arthur Smith ran the ball 55.29% of the time last year and struggled all year to throw. Opponents knew he couldn’t pass, and yet Tyler Allgeier averaged 4.9 YPC. Imagine what Bijan can do in this offense, even if he cedes 40% of the snaps to Allgeier.
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB13
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB15
This is another obvious one, but right now, Swift is being drafted as RB24 overall in dynasty startups. That should change now that the Georgia alum's situation has been drastically altered. However, there are still enough questions surrounding his health and opportunity share to drive his trade price down to reasonable levels.
The Eagles were the third-best run-blocking line in the NFL last year, and Miles Sanders vacated 285 touches when he left for Carolina. Swift’s competition for those touches is the always-injured Rashaad Penny and the diminutive Kenneth Gainwell. While both Penny and Gainwell are talented and will earn snaps, Swift is the best overall back on this roster. He should solidify himself as a borderline RB1 if he can stay healthy.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB25
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB16
Right now, Williams ranks as RB32 in composite redraft rankings and RB24 in dynasty. While fading the UNC product due to his nasty knee injury is reasonable, his talent demands a higher ranking than that. On film and talent alone, Williams is a top-ten running back when healthy. He’s also young enough that rebuilding dynasty teams may even want him to sit out this upcoming season and get completely healthy before returning to form in 2024.
Consider that Williams ranked seventh in Yards After Contact and led the NFL in broken tackles as a rookie, despite receiving just the 16th most rush attempts. He is also an underrated pass-catcher and a plus blocker, which Sean Payton should love. The only question here is health. The upside is too great not to take Williams as an RB3 in redrafts, though. The potential of him becoming a league winner in December is just too high, given his current cost. In dynasty, his value is even higher.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Positional Rank in Non-PPR: RB21
Positional Rank in PPR: RB27
Robinson is currently the lead back on a team whose head coach has vocally said he wants to become a ground-and-pound offense. His current starting quarterback is a fifth-round draft pick with exactly one game of NFL experience, and the Commanders’ only move at the position this offseason has been to use a sixth-round pick on Chris Rodriguez Jr. All those things are good news for Robinson.
While the Alabama alum's production has been inconsistent so far, and his receiving chops aren't a strength, the pure volume he can inherit in Ron Rivera's new game plan could be obscene. Robinson's efficiency also may increase after a full offseason is put between him and his unfortunate gunshot injury last year. His value in dynasty may still be capped, especially with a coaching change likely next year, but he's undervalued for 2023.
Sleeper Running Back of the Year
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB39
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB34
Brown is a fumbler, and that could cost him his career if he doesn't fix the problem early. However, he is a good route runner, tough between the tackles, and possesses good vision and balance. The Bengals must consider moving on from Mixon after another off-field issue was thrown onto his pile of productivity concerns and high cap number. Brown could inherit a great role on a tremendous offense early if Mixon went down or were released. He’s going as RB75, but his value is much higher.
Other Sleeper RBs
Dwayne McBride, Minnesota Vikings
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB50
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB45
McBride fell to the seventh round of this year's Draft, but his talent is that of a fourth-rounder or better. He runs with good balance, vision, and patience while adding value after contact. The UAB product was also drafted into a good situation, with the Vikings likely to move on from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison their only other noteworthy back. While Mattison is likely to lead that backfield, McBride has sneaky upside and a bargain price tag.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB45
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB37
Spears isn't due for a lead role this year unless Derrick Henry is injured or traded. That said, the Titans haven't had a backup running back this talented since Henry rose to stardom. With the big man aging and sporting a brutal running style, there is potential for the rookie to see early snaps. Spears is a quality stash in dynasty formats, and one of the better “insurance backs” in redraft formats.
Khalan Laborn, San Francisco 49ers
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB79
To be clear, Jordan Mason is still the most likely sleeper to produce in this 49er backfield, but Laborn is a sneaky value in dynasty leagues. San Francisco has a history of turning undrafted free-agent running backs into fantasy-relevant contributors. There's a path to touches for someone like Laborn with the injury risks of Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, too.
Laborn is a former top recruit out of high school whose testing numbers showed good burst and power. He was very productive in his final year at Marshall, showing good suddenness, receiving chops, and a one-cut ability that fits well in Kyle Shanahan's scheme. There's a chance he beats out Tyrion Davis-Price for a roster spot, just like Mason beat Trey Sermon, making Laborn a sneaky deep dynasty add.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Positional Rank in Redrafts: RB60
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB61
There was a strong buzz on White as a sleeper last year, with some hoping he may even steal the job from the free agency-bound Josh Jacobs. Unfortunately for those people, White barely played, and Jacobs had a career season. As a result, White is currently ranked on average as RB68 in redrafts. That's reasonable, given his lack of passing game production and undefined role, but it also makes him a sleeper.
The Raiders failed to draft or sign real competition for Jacobs or White this offseason, and Jacobs remains on the franchise tag. Other than White, Las Vegas has passing-down specialists who wouldn’t replace Jacobs’ production if he went down. Meanwhile, the Raiders invested a fourth-round pick in White, a powerful runner who averaged a solid 4.1 YPC last year. The former bulldog is worth a late-round flyer.
Running Backs Whose Stock is Down
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB33
Positional Rank in Redraft: RB35
Herbert was on my buy-low dynasty lists because he's incredibly explosive and effective when given touches. The Bears' selection of Roschon Johnson clouds this picture considerably. Chicago had considerable needs, but they used a quality pick on a talented back to come in and take touches from Herbert. With D'Onta Foreman already on board to steal TDs, this feels like a three-headed monster. Johnson is a more likely sleeper, now.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB8
Positional Rank in Redraft: RB7
Walker was easily a top-five back in every single format going into the NFL Draft. Now, his opportunity share and passing work are both in serious doubt. Seattle used a premium second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet, who is arguably a better pass catcher than Walker. Charbonnet also has good vision and balance between the tackles, where Walker was blown up for a loss a lot last year.
Many of Walker's dead plays last year were the fault of poor run blocking up the middle, but Seattle didn't significantly improve that issue. If Walker waits too long for a big play and loses too many yards, Seattle could start giving the highly drafted Charbonnet more work. You don't like that risk in your RB1… not that there are many better options in the NFL.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Positional Rank in Dynasty: RB19
Positional Rank in Redraft: RB17
Etienne is an undersized but explosive back who was valued highly in fantasy circles due to his secure role as the lead back for Jacksonville, even if his passing game role is disappointing. Unfortunately, Etienne's head coach has a history of utilizing timeshares, and the front office drafted Tank Bigsby with a third-round pick. Bigsby is a good interior runner with balance and power who could steal plenty of goal-line attempts. That's terrible news for Etienne if his targets don't go up.
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