RADIO
Robert deciphers the fantasy football tight end landscape to identify breakouts and to help avoid players who are fool's gold for Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season. Taking a deep dive into the advanced statistics can help get out in front of trends.
Through five weeks of NFL action, there are just five tight ends averaging at least 10 half-PPR PPG and three of them reside in the NFC North. Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota all currently are supporting a top-five tight end. T.J. Hockenson in Minnesota is no surprise, but who could have predicted Cole Kmet and Sam LaPorta? The tight end position is one of the most unpredictable and difficult positions to figure out.
Many, myself included, wrote off Kmet after the acquisition of D.J. Moore, but he’s been fantastic through five weeks. Most other big-name tight ends -- George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Pat Freiermuth, and Dallas Goedert -- struggled. If it wasn’t for huge performances from Goedert and Kittle this past weekend, their ranking would look even worse.
Every year, at all positions, there seem to be some random players or players who were drafted late who become regular fantasy contributors. Through the first two weeks of the season, it seemed to be Hunter Henry, but since it seems the real winners are Kmet, Logan Thomas, and maybe Zach Ertz. For this article, we'll continue tracking some specific metrics that can help predict which tight ends fantasy managers should be targeting.
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Weeks 1-5 Statistical Review
With receivers, we can often just look at raw target data and target share to get a pretty good idea of which players will be productive and which ones we should be chasing. With the tight end, that’s not quite as effective because with such small numbers, even just 1-2 extra or fewer targets can make a difference in target share numbers.
Instead, we want to focus on opportunity, which not only includes raw targets and target share but also snap share, the raw number of routes run, and route participation rate. Below is a table based on the first five weeks of the NFL season. These statistics are based on the numbers and stats found at PFF, which is an incredible site filled with amazing data.
| Player | Snap Share | Route Participation | Routes Run | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Red Zone Targets |
| Sam LaPorta | 81% | 79% | 132 | 19.4% | 6.2 | 3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 65% | 83% | 152 | 19.6% | 6.4 | 3 |
| Hayden Hurst | 56% | 63% | 142 | 9.9% | 3.8 | 4 |
| Dalton Schultz | 66% | 72% | 149 | 14.4% | 5.4 | 5 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 64% | 71% | 91 | 8.5% | 3.0 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 76% | 78% | 130 | 13.6% | 4.5 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 76% | 84% | 179 | 20.4% | 7.4 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 54% | 64% | 121 | 13.6% | 4.4 | 4 |
| Juwan Johnson | 76% | 75% | 88 | 11.7% | 4.0 | 1 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 71% | 71% | 120 | 15.2% | 4.4 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 71% | 82% | 144 | 21.1% | 6.8 | 7 |
| Logan Thomas | 81% | 77% | 119 | 15.6% | 7.3 | 4 |
| George Kittle | 84% | 86% | 132 | 15.6% | 4.6 | 4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 77% | 74% | 70 | 8.8% | 3.3 | 4 |
| Cade Otton | 97% | 82% | 116 | 11.6% | 3.8 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 83% | 80% | 176 | 18.7% | 7.8 | 7 |
| Luke Musgrave | 69% | 80% | 113 | 14.2% | 4.6 | 3 |
| Cole Kmet | 81% | 74% | 139 | 18.3% | 5.8 | 6 |
| Durham Smythe | 88% | 83% | 122 | 8.1% | 3.7 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 59% | 49% | 82 | 9.3% | 3.5 | 2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 95% | 91% | 178 | 17.4% | 5.6 | 4 |
| Hunter Henry | 83% | 78% | 157 | 13.6% | 5.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 93% | 89% | 201 | 14.3% | 5.8 | 2 |
| Darren Waller | 89% | 87% | 153 | 20.5% | 7.2 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | 65% | 61% | 111 | 17.4% | 5.6 | 11 |
| Tyler Conklin | 72% | 67% | 117 | 15.1% | 4.6 | 2 |
| Dawson Knox | 68% | 67% | 131 | 10.3% | 3.8 | 5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 60% | 66% | 130 | 11.4% | 3.8 | 2 |
| Mark Andrews | 81% | 90% | 133 | 23.3% | 7.0 | 5 |
| Adam Trautman | 83% | 76% | 146 | 8.6% | 2.8 | 6 |
| Mike Gesicki | 50% | 53% | 107 | 9.2% | 3.4 | 1 |
| Michael Mayer | 51% | 37% | 68 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 52% | 42% | 59 | 7.8% | 2.8 | 1 |
In this table, I have eliminated the Week 1 game for Darren Waller because he was limited and his route participation and snap share were vastly different than what we’ve seen in Weeks 2-5. I also eliminated Logan Thomas’ Week 2 game where he left early with a concussion, which also caused a significant change to his snap share, route participation, and target share.
While other players have been limited or knocked out of games, I have chosen to augment these two players’ statistics because of how good they’ve been otherwise and I don’t want readers to form a misconception about two TE1s. Other players who have missed time include Pat Freiermuth and Luke Musgrave. However, neither of these players should be considered as anything more than streamers in a positive matchup. Thomas and Waller, however, are performing as set-it-and-forget-it tight ends in their non-injury impacted contests.
Don’t Stop Believing
There is one tight end whom the fantasy football community is pretty fed up with. Through interactions on X and Reddit, I’ve received plenty of “should I drop him?” questions. However, this particular tight end also happens to have run more routes than Sam LaPorta, has a higher target share than Sam LaPorta, has more overall targets than Sam LaPorta, has a higher route participation rate than Sam LaPorta, has the same number of red zone targets as Sam LaPorta, and has more air yards than Sam LaPorta. Who is this tight end? It’s Kyle Pitts, y’all!
Looking at target share, route participation, aDot, pass block %, air yards, and WR route %, these tight ends are top 10 in...
4 Categories:
Zach Ertz
Mark Andrews
Darren Waller
Evan Engram
Kyle Pitts5 Categories:
Darren Waller
Kyle Pitts6 Categories:
Kyle Pitts— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) October 10, 2023
Look, I get it. There are other circumstances at play here. For instance, Jared Goff is light years better than Desmond Ridder. I agree! Which is why I’m not arguing that Pitts is better than LaPorta from a fantasy football standpoint. I’m just arguing that Pitts' utilization is really quite good once again and while it’s fair to be disappointed in the production, it’s not as bad as you think it is!
He’s sixth in targets among tight ends, tied for 12th in receptions, and 11th in receiving yards. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found the end zone yet. With Ridder at QB, his touchdown opportunity will not be great, but I promise you his 2023 season isn’t as bad as you think it is. He’s on pace for 109 targets, 61 receptions, and 707 yards. Last year, only three tight ends had more targets, only six had more receptions, and only six had more yards.
Pitts isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it tight end. He’s not like LaPorta. But he doesn’t deserve to be dropped. If you don’t have an elite tight end, which there are very few, you should be rostering two of them in hopes of getting lucky or being able to stream the position. Pitts is most definitely a streamable tight end and his utilization gives him an upside, too. Imagine if the Falcons were to ever make the switch to Taylor Heinicke or maybe trade for Kirk Cousins. Hey, I can dream, can’t I?
I Was Wrong About You!
If you’ve been following along with this series, you’ll know that I’ve been torn on Jake Ferguson of the Cowboys. On one hand, his target share and target per route run rates were excellent. Elite, even. On the other hand, he was barely playing 50% of his team’s snaps and his route participation rate was absolutely dreadful. Something had to give. Either his target-earning skill set was legit and it was going to lead to more routes or it wasn’t and eventually, his elite targets per route run rate would regress to the mean.
From Weeks 4-5, his route participation has been at 71%. In fact, since Week 2, his route participation has been steadily on the rise. It was 49% in Week 2, 62% in Week 3, 69% in Week 4, and 73% in Week 5. Just like that, I am all the way in. Ferguson isn’t quite a set-it-and-forget-it tight end, but he is awfully, awfully close. If his route participation continues to rise, Ferguson could become one of the best value picks this season.
As we all expected, Jake Ferguson leads all tight ends in expected fantasy points through four weeks with 52.1.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) October 6, 2023
He has a very healthy 17.4% target share and is averaging 5.6 targets per game. Now with his route participation above 70%, those numbers look much more sticky than they did before. To give Ferguson even more value, he currently leads all tight ends in red zone targets with 11. He has just one touchdown on the season, but considering his utilization in that part of the field, fantasy managers should expect progression in that department soon. Fantasy managers should be valuing him as a top-12 tight end for the rest of the season.
Sell High
If you’re not using George Kittle’s three-touchdown performance in Week 5 to sell high, you’re not doing fantasy football right. In the first four weeks of the season, Kittle has three games with less than five half-PPR points. He’s been held to under 30 yards receiving in three out of five games and has just one game with more than three receptions, which didn’t even happen this past weekend when all three of his catches went for touchdowns.
George Kittle feels like a sell high to me
Since Brock Purdy took over:
• 13 career starts with 20+ pass attempts
• 70% (9/13) of those games, Kittle has under
30 receiving yardsKittle is phenomenal in best ball and a solid asset in general, don’t get me wrong
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) October 10, 2023
He’s averaging just 4.6 targets per game, which equates to a 17-game pace of just 78. This would be the lowest of his career since his rookie year in seasons where he played over half the games. 78 targets would’ve placed him 12th last season. This kind of limited volume will make it virtually impossible for him to be a consistent asset. However, his name value and most recent explosion could help produce a solid return in a trade.
It’s not that Kittle isn’t a great player, because he is. This is a math problem. This is a volume problem. He is fourth on the team’s target hierarchy behind Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey on a team that has the fewest passing attempts in the league through five games. As great as Kittle is, even he cannot overcome that situation to be anything more than a boom-or-bust tight end. If you can sell him as a mid-TE1 and “downgrade” at tight end to Logan Thomas, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, or Dallas Goedert and get a little plus on the side, I’m absolutely doing that.
What’s the Worst That Can Happen?
You don’t need to play fantasy football very long to find out just how awful the tight end position is. It’s painfully obvious. In that sense, what’s the worst thing that can happen from adding and stashing Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich? I know, I know, head coach Sean Payton traded for his former Saints tight end Adam Trautman and he played ahead of Dulcich in the preseason. All true and certainly not ideal.
However, since then, Trautman has done absolutely nothing. Despite playing 83% of the snaps with a route participation rate of 76% -- both really good numbers -- Trautman has just 14 targets to show for it. His targets per route run rate is ranked 37th. His target share is awful. He’s averaging 0.41 yards per route run, which also ranks 37th among tight ends. He has 60 total yards. Nepotism is alive and well, but it would be hard for anyone to stick by that.
On the flip side, Dulcich was really good as a rookie! He posted a 17.2% target share and a 1.44-yards-per-route run average. His 2022 12.5 yards per reception (YPR) average dwarves Trautman’s 6.5 YPR average this season. Dulcich also averaged 7.5 yards per target (YPT) compared to Trautman’s 4.3 this season. By any metric, Dulcich is a far superior pass-catching option.
Now’s the time to take a shot on Greg Dulcich.
Solid prospect profile (RD3 pick, 27.3% Dominator, 8.24/10 RAS score).
Stellar rookie producer (5th most YPG by a rookie TE since 2000, 5+ targets in 6/10 games).
Still a high-upside bet at the scarcest position (TE).
BUY-low.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) September 17, 2023
It’s also worth noting that Dulcich bested Trautman as a rookie in a year where Russell Wilson finished with just 3,524 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Through five games, Wilson is on pace for 4,114 yards, 37 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Trautman has the advantage not only of having more experience but also receiving better quarterback play, and yet the production from these two players from last year to this year could not be any more different.
If that wasn’t enough, there’s been plenty of smoke that Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton could be traded before the deadline. Both were rumored to be available this offseason and it seems likely at least one of them will be dealt this season. If that happens, that will only create another void within the offense that Dulcich’s pass-catching skill set could help fill. I’m not saying Dulcich is a must-add, but there are enough reasons to give him a shot if you’re hurting at tight end. What’s the worst that could happen?
The Fountain of Youth!
Logan Thomas is currently TE7 on the season in half-PPR scoring with a 9.4 PPG average. This is just 0.2 points behind Kittle, who just scored three touchdowns on three receptions in Week 5. Not to mention, Thomas played just 37% of the team’s snaps in Week 2 before exiting with a concussion. In games he’s started and finished, Thomas is averaging 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 53.6 yards per game. That puts him on pace for 124 targets, 90 receptions, and 911 yards.
In those three games he didn’t leave early, Thomas has an excellent 77% route participation rate and 17.8% target share. His per-game averages lead Washington in targets, receptions, and yards. He’s clearly been Sam Howell’s preferred target when he’s been on the field. There are some risks with Thomas. He’s 32 years old and played in just six games in 2021.
On top of that, it seems unlikely that Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson continue playing second-fiddle to a 32-year-old tight end for the duration of the season. However, as it stands right now, Thomas is performing like a top-10 tight end and his utilization metrics align with that production.
If he’s available in your league, you should quickly rectify that. I’m adding Thomas in all leagues even if I'm rostering Travis Kelce. The position is so brutal that Thomas could very promptly become trade bait. Especially with a Week 6 matchup on tap against the Falcons, who are currently allowing the second-most points to tight ends this season. If Thomas puts up another performance like he did in Week 5 when he had 11 targets, nine receptions, 77 yards, and a touchdown, he’ll become a movable piece. He’s the No. 1 tight end streamer of the week.
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