RADIO
Marvin Harrison Jr., one of the more hyped receiver prospects, joins the Cardinals as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the past 10 seasons, nine receivers were drafted in the top 10, four of which went in the top 5. Only two receivers averaged double-digit fantasy points per game in their rookie season, including Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Evans. The visual below shows receivers drafted in the top 10 since 2014 with their production during their rookie years.
However, many rookie receivers totaled over 175 fantasy points in a season. Five broke the 200-point threshold, which typically marks a breakout season. Most of them have been productive or high-end receiver options throughout their careers. Sammy Watkins popped in Year 1 (WR26) and Year 2 (WR19) but struggled since then. Meanwhile, Corey Davis had an up-and-down career with peak seasons of WR29 in Year 2 and Year 4.
We'll look at Harrison's prospect profile, the team context, and the outlook for 2024 and beyond. Should we target him in drafts? How does he fit into the Cardinals offense?
College Production
Harrison dominated as a sophomore in 2022 with 1,263 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. That translated to a 33 percent receiver dominator in 2022 while averaging 3.08 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RecYPTA). He matched the counting stats with 1,211 receiving yards and 14 scores as a junior. However, Harrison posted an improved receiver dominator (45 percent) and receiving yards per team pass attempt (3.22).
Harrison's top comparisons involve a few of the names we discussed earlier plus new ones, including Justin Blackmon, Watkins, Amari Cooper, and Drake London. Harrison led the class in receiving yards per team pass attempt (2.75) and yards per route run in his career among FBS receivers. When we filter by non-FBS receivers, Jalen Coker's 3.84 RecYPTA and Ryan Flournoy's 2.68 RecYPTA edged Harrison.
The table below shows the career leaders in RecYPTA among the 2024 class.
Malik Nabers ranked second among FBS receivers in the 2024 draft class, with a career RecYPTA of 2.46 and YPRR of 2.83. The main difference between Nabers and Harrison comes with their wide versus slot usage. Nabers ran routes in the slot 53.6 percent of the time, with 46 percent out wide.
Meanwhile, Harrison ran nearly 80 percent (79.8) out wide, with only 19.4 percent of his routes in the slot. That aligns with Harrison's career usage with the Buckeyes, evidenced by his 84.1 percent out wide and 15.6 percent in the slot. Regardless of the location on the field, Harrison showed he can win against man (3.03 YPRR) and zone defenses (3.51 YPRR), making him a versatile weapon.
The one knock in Harrison's profile might be the low contested catch rate at 43.3 percent, similar to Nabers with 45.5 percent. Some may view the contested catch rate as a hint to some struggles with separation. However, the optimistic viewpoint involves the quarterback trusting Harrison in contested situations, with some of the top receivers in college and the NFL garnering high amounts of contested targets.
Rookie Year Situation
With Kliff Kingsbury as head coach (2019-2022), the Cardinals ranked 11th in pass rate (59 percent). However, with a defensive-minded head coach, Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals had the 23rd-ranked pass rate at 56 percent. It's worth noting the team played without Kyler Murray for half a season, and these numbers could shift with half-season samples.
With Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, the Cardinals passed 57 percent of the time (No. 20). They maintained the balanced attack, throwing 56 percent of the time with Murray. The passing efficiency declined for Murray over the past two seasons, evidenced by a 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) in 2022 and 6.6 in 2023. That fell from 7.1 AY/A in 2020 to 7.9 in 2021. If Murray struggles to be an efficient passer, we'll want the passing volume to increase for their pass-catchers like Harrison.
The visual above shows the bottom-12 teams sorted by percentage of targets to wide receivers.
In 2023, the Cardinals ran 11 personnel 63.9 percent of the time (No. 14). Since Harrison is their top receiver, he should be running many routes without worry of losing reps. It's worth noting that the Cardinals targeted their wide receivers at the third-lowest rate of 51.3 percent in 2023, ahead of the Jets (51.2 percent) and Falcons (41.1 percent). Unsurprisingly, they targeted their tight ends at the second-highest rate of 33.1 percent, with Trey McBride having a breakout season. Expect a few percentage points in the target-share numbers to shift in Harrison's favor in 2024.
With DeAndre Hopkins on a new team, the receiving options took a dip, with Marquise Brown leading the team with a 23 percent target share. McBride soaked up a 20 percent target share, with Zach Ertz at 19 percent. Michael Wilson's 14 percent target share and Rondale Moore's 11 percent rounded out the other top receivers in target share.
Theoretically, Harrison should earn a 25 percent target share or higher, with him and McBride eating up over 50 percent of the passing pie. For context, Drake London had a 29.3 percent target share, with Garrett Wilson earning 25 percent in Year 1. Jaylen Waddle, Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Mike Evans garnered 22-23 percent of their team's target share, giving Harrison a floor and ceiling in earning opportunities.
Michael Wilson should play on the other side of the field from Harrison, and Wilson probably garners mostly downfield targets, evidenced by his 12 air yards per target (No. 30) and a 21 percent air yards share. That might complement Harrison well, though he can eat downfield and the middle areas of the field.
Fantasy Football Outlook
There's no denying Harrison's near-elite prospect profile, but the Underdog best ball market puts him as WR9, going in the middle of the second round at pick 17.4. That's in between A.J. Brown (11.1), Wilson (11.6), London (17.9), and Chris Olave (20.4) among receivers. Nabers goes as WR22 at pick 42.3 near Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and Stefon Diggs. Both rookies have some risk since they landed on weaker offenses. Harrison and Nabers have been two of the highest rookie receivers drafted in fantasy football.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba went about 40 picks later in 2023 than Nabers, with most going past pick 100. There's a saying that we don't dislike players, but dislike their ADPs. That might be the case for some drafters with Harrison in the early second round.
It can be a winning strategy to treat redraft leagues like dynasty formats, where we target rookies and players with tons of upside. Harrison fits that mold and might be priced at his Year 1 ceiling, though there's a projectable outcome as WR11-12. As a Zero RB enthusiast, Harrison lands into a situation with an above-average quarterback and little competition among receivers, making him a target in the first two rounds.
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