RADIO
Week 5 is officially in the books and we're now almost a third of the way through the 2022 season. Overreactions will undoubtedly continue to be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 6 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 5 of the NFL season.
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Week 6 Fantasy Football Risers
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Damien Harris had to leave Week 5's game vs. the Lions early after suffering a hamstring injury. From that point forward, Stevenson got every single RB opportunity (all 27 of them) for the remainder of the game. That's simply unheard of in today's NFL. Take a look at what head coach Bill Belichick had to say after the game about the second-year back:
Even if Harris is somehow able to play in Week 6, this is now Stevenson's backfield (and it has been since Week 2 really). Rhamondre has played a higher percentage of the snaps since Week 2 and has the more fantasy-friendly role-playing on third downs and in long-down-and-distance situations.
Now he'll get a chance to showcase his three-down skillset Belichick raves about in a few very favorable matchups against the Browns, Bears, Jets, and Colts before the Patriots' Week 10 bye. Giddyup!
Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
Yup, another Patriot makes the list of Risers this week, and that's none other than Jakobi Meyers. All this guy does is produce, regardless of the situation. In Week 5, he was coming off a two-week absence due to a knee injury and still managed to put up a line of 7-111-1 on eight targets with a rookie quarterback throwing him the football.
For the season, Meyers now has a targets per route run rate (TPRR) of 36.5% and a target share of 32.5%. Both of those opportunity metrics are elite. And don't just look at the opportunity, take a look at how he grades per PFF this season:
For the past two seasons, Meyers has hovered around a 26% TPRR and 24% target share. He's always been good. But to begin the 2022 season, he's been even better. The question is, can he keep it up? The answer remains to be seen, but it's promising nonetheless to see him thrive with a rookie quarterback coming off of a knee injury that forced him to miss two games.
It's abundantly clear the Patriots trust Meyers as their premier WR1.
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce came onto the scene in Week 2, and it's been a steady increase in work ever since. But Week 5 was really his coming out party. He played on a season-high 79% of the snaps (his previous season-high was 67.9%) and got a career-high 31 touches.
He even saw five targets in this game after getting six the previous week. He ran a route on more than 50% of Davis Mills' dropbacks in Week 5, which was more than Rex Burkhead, who ended up playing on just 20.1% of the snaps.
The Texans are heading into their Week 6 bye, but rookie running backs tend to get even better on the other side of the week off. Pierce is already there, folks. The bye week is the perfect time to buy high on the next workhorse rookie running back. I mean, just look at this guy:
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Another "pseudo" rookie running back (Travis Etienne) appears to have overtaken the vet (James Robinson) in the Jaguars backfield. Robinson had Etienne's number early in the season with a couple of positive game scripts going in his favor. But with Jacksonville trailing the past two weeks, we've started to see more and more of Etienne.
In fact, in Week 5, Etienne played on a season-high 53% of the snaps and handled 53.6% of the RB opportunities. Unfortunately, he has yet to find the endzone despite six red zone carries and five red zone targets.
Per PlayerProfiler, Etienne has a higher route participation (38.8% vs. 26.1%) and is creating more yards per touch (3.52 vs. 1.98) than Robinson. He also has a higher juke rate (23.8% vs. 16.9%).
The increase in opportunities shouldn't come as a surprise when you look at how he's outperforming Robinson this season. It's only a matter of time before Etienne is seen as more than a 53% snap share guy and begins to handle north of 60% of the RB opportunities in this backfield.
Right now is the time to "buy low" on Etienne before he truly breaks out, much like Dameon Pierce has in Houston.
Other Risers: Cade Otton, Rondale Moore, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Walker III
Week 6 Fantasy Football Fallers
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season, Najee Harris finished as a top-five running back thanks to his massive workload. He was first among all running backs in weighted opportunities with 19.5 per game on an 84.5% snap share. This season, he's just 17th amongst running backs in weighted opportunities with just 13 per game on a 65.3% snap share.
With that lowered opportunity share comes a lack of fantasy production. Through five games, Harris is just the RB29. His efficiency wasn't there as a rookie, and it's most definitely not there (once again) in his sophomore campaign. Per PlayerProfiler, Najee has created just 2.23 yards per touch (41st) and has a 1.4% breakaway run rate, just 45th among running backs.
If that's not enough, head coach Mike Tomlin recently said he wants to involve Jaylen Warren more in the offense, and for good reason. Check this out:
Let this also serve as a reminder to stash Jaylen Warren as he'll have a golden opportunity should anything happen to Najee down the line.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
Cooks started the season "hot," catching seven passes for 82 yards on 12 targets in Week 1. He had double-digit targets in Week 2 but finished with just 54 yards on four catches. But since then, he's seen just seven or fewer targets in the last three weeks and is averaging just 33 yards per game.
Furthermore, Cooks' snap share has decreased each week. It's not a dramatic drop, but he's gone from 94% snap share > 85% > 84% > 79% > 77%. He also has just one touchdown on three red zone targets. The emergence of second-year wideout Nico Collins probably has something to do with it. Collins has increased his snap share every week since Week 1 and is averaging six targets and 91.3 air yards per game in the last four games.
Believe it or not, even though Davis Mills and the Texans look relatively competent this season, they're actually averaging fewer offensive touchdowns (1.6) through five games this season than they did during the 2021 season (1.7). There's just not enough upside for multiple Texans to return value on a weekly basis, and right now that's Dameon Pierce.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
This one is tough because Elijah Moore was so good as a rookie when healthy. He played more than half the snaps in just nine games last season but had a target rate north of 25%. He ran just 28 routes per game but still managed to see seven targets per game. This season, with first-rounder Garrett Wilson in town, Moore is averaging just six targets per game on 38 routes run per game.
After all the hype surrounding Moore coming into the season, many of his fantasy managers are ready to jump ship and cut him. While that's understandable, all it would take is an injury to Wilson or veteran wideout Corey Davis for Moore's value to skyrocket.
However, with Wilson having a 28.8% target rate, it looks like he's taken over as the alpha wide receiver for the Jets, whereas Moore held that title in 2021.
It makes sense to keep him on your bench for the time being and hope for the best, but without some kind of injury to Wilson or Davis, it's going to be hard for Elijah Moore to pop this season as expected by many in the industry. Re-calibrate those expectations for the time being.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
A common theme with the Fallers this week is that they all looked to have a decent role in Week 1. The same goes for A.J. Dillon, who had 10 rush attempts and five receptions in the first week of the season. And those five receptions came after Aaron Rodgers said he wanted both Dillon and Aaron Jones to have 50 catches this season. But since that game, Dillon has caught just four total passes on eight total targets in his last four games.
His opportunity share sits at just 49% this season, which isn't terrible but also isn't great for a running back not seeing many targets. In fact, Dillon is running just 9.4 routes per game compared to Jones' 17.2 routes per game. Not only that, but Jones actually has one more red zone carry than Dillon, so it's not even as if Dillon is taking all the red zone work to make up for the lack of targets.
For now, it's impossible to view Dillon as anything more than a high-value handcuff. Coming into the year, expectations were high for the third-year back, and he was expected to have standalone value on a Packer team lacking a true WR1. That simply hasn't been the case. In fact, Dillon has averaged just 6.6 PPR points per game in his last four games.
Other Fallers: Jaylen Waddle, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerry Jeudy
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