RADIO
Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season is officially in the books. Overreactions will undoubtedly continue to be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 5 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 4 of the NFL season.
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Week 5 Fantasy Football Risers
Breece Hall, New York Jets
I'll be totally honest, I wasn't totally buying into Breece Hall his rookie season where he was being drafted. That said, he always had the best shot of any running back in the "dead zone" to hit due to his talent and age. Fast forward, it's only Week 5, yet Hall has seemingly taken control of the Jets' backfield.
Here's the trajectory of his snap shares by week: 45% > 27% > 51% > 66%
Here's the trajectory of his RB opportunity share by week: 44% > 34.8% > 59.4% > 65.7%
Not only is he now playing over half the snaps and seeing almost tw0-thirds of the RB opportunities, but he's averaging 6.8 targets per game. Only Austin Ekeler is averaging more targets per game this season with 7.3 and we think of him as the pinnacle for RB value, especially in full PPR leagues.
Upcoming for Hall and the Jets are two decent matchups against the Dolphins and the Packers. But matchups aside, if Hall is going to continue seeing the second-most targets amongst all running backs, you're going to want him in your lineups on a weekly basis.
The guy had 23 opportunities in Week 4, more big games are coming.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
Romeo Doubs now has back-to-back games of eight targets. Who said Aaron Rodgers doesn't trust rookie wideouts!? That myth is being debunked right in front of our eyes by the Packers' fourth-round pick out of Nevada.
After a part-time role in Weeks 1 and 2, Doubs has played nearly every-down role the last two weeks. And with that every-down role, he's running the most routes of any Packer receiver and earning targets at a relatively high rate of 25% (16 targets on 64 routes run in Weeks 3 and 4).
Doubs is also tied for fourth in red zone receptions with five and sixth in red zone targets with six despite playing a part-time role the first two weeks of the season. He's more than held of Christian Watson, and he'll do the same whenever veteran Sammy Watkins returns from his injury.
Doubs and Allen Lazard will continue to operate as Rodgers' WR1 and WR2; however, there's an untapped upside with Doubs that should have fantasy managers very excited.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White continues the trend of rookies that are rising ahead of Week 5. So, what makes him a riser after garnering just eight opportunities on a 38% snap share in Week 4? Well, I'm glad you asked. For starters, that's the highest snap share he's seen all season.
Another positive for White is his overall RB opportunity share. In Week 4, he got 44.4% of the RB opportunities (including five targets). In Week 1, when he also had eight total opportunities, his RB opportunity share was just 25.8%.
The Bucs also showed us last week that they are more than comfortable using the rookie running back in all facets of the game. That included 50% of the red zone snaps as well as 17 routes run to Leonard Fournette's 25 routes run.
While Fournette is still the starter and is likely to see the lion's share of the RB opportunities moving forward, it's clear as day the Bucs (and more importantly Tom Brady) trust White in all situations.
If Fournette, who has missed an average of 3.6 games per year, is forced to miss any time, White would step in and become a true three-down workhorse. At this point, he's probably the most elite handcuff there is in fantasy football and should be on rosters everywhere.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon is currently just the RB15, but he's got a top-five opportunity share amongst all running backs through four games. He's averaging a whopping 26.5 opportunities per game, including six targets per game. Last season, Mixon averaged just 3.1 targets per game. This is a huge positive for value moving forward in 2022.
So he's getting the opportunities, in good spots, but just hasn't capitalized on them...yet. Take a look at this next chart, which shows expected fantasy points vs. actual fantasy points produced:
One should realistically expect regression here, which would mean more fantasy points for Mixon given all the high-value touches he's being given right now. He's used in both the passing game and inside the five-yard line.
He's only scored one touchdown on 106 total opportunities. That won't continue. Expect Mixon to find the endzone more often in future games as the Bengals' offense starts to click a bit more. Through four games, the Bengals are averaging 22.8 points per game, whereas in 2021, they averaged 26.3 points per game.
The 83% snap share Mixon saw in Week 4 is extremely elite, and it seems as if the Bengals are comfortable using him as a feature back much like how the Giants deploy Saquan Barkley and the Colts deploy Jonathan Taylor.
Other Risers: Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, J.K. Dobbins, Isaiah McKenzie/Khalil Shakir
Week 5 Fantasy Football Fallers
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
Gibson started hot with rookie Brian Robinson on the reserve/non-football injury list to start the season. In Week 1, he got 22 opportunities (including eight targets) on a 64% snap share and turned it into 20 PPR fantasy points. However, it's been all downhill from that point.
In his last three games, Gibson is averaging just 10.8 fantasy points. He's seen his snap share decrease from 64% in Week 1 down to just 41% in Week 4. J.D. McKissic has gotten 12 opportunities per game the last two games and has actually played on a higher percentage of snaps than Gibson.
Now comes Week 5, and apparently Robinson is nearing his return. That's yet another person that could potentially take away touches from Gibson, who has already seen them dwindle since Week 1. At this point, it's hard to trust a running back that has seen such a dip in opportunities from game to game as Gibson has.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Waller's opportunity has taken a major hit this season with Davante Adams in town.
Through the first four games of the 2021 season, he had a 26% target rate on a 90% snap share. In comparison, through the first four games of the 2022 season, he has just an 18.6% target rate on a 73% snap share. His target share so far this season sits at just 16.6% compared to 24.2% in 2021.
Subsequently, Waller is currently the TE12 in the young season. Can he turn things around? Sure he can, but is he a sure thing to be a consensus top-five tight end in the elite tier with Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews? No way. Not even close.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Another tight end that's not living up to the high expectations is Kittle, but it's not his fault. He's just a product of the Kyle Shanahan system and injuries to both Trent Williams and now Colton McKivitz on the offensive line.
As a result, Kittle is playing a lot, but he's playing a lot as a blocking tight end. He's run just 19.5 routes per game in two games played so far this season. He's averaging just 4.5 targets per game despite playing 96% of the snaps.
The other problem is the 49ers are running at an extremely high rate, even with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. They're running 53.3% of the time. Additionally, Jimmy G is averaging just 17 completions on 28 pass attempts per game in the two games Kittle has played.
With Deebo Samuel commanding a 29.3% target share and Brandon Aiyuk commanding a 22.2% target share, there just aren't enough targets to go around on a low-volume passing attack.
Kittle remains one of the league's most elite tight ends, he's just not in a situation that's conducive to him putting up a ton of fantasy points without an injury to either wide receiver or a total 180 in the offensive scheme.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
For the first three weeks of the season, Claypool had been consistently underperforming. However, he was also consistently seeing six targets per game, which isn't terrible. But then Week 4 happened, and he saw just two targets on a 73% snap share. Compare that to his 92% snap share in the first three games of the season.
What else happened in Week 4? Well, rookie Kenny Pickett took over as the starter for the Steelers in the second half. Here's the target distribution from Pickett in one half of football:
Claypool was neck-in-neck with Diontae Johnson, but one can realistically expect Johnson, a natural target hog, to see a target share north of 25% moving forward. Claypool on the other hand has a career-high target share of just 18.7% (last season). That came without JuJu Smith-Schuster and a rookie tight end in Pat Freiermuth.
This season, with Freiermuth another year into his career and George Pickens commanding targets, Claypool has regressed to seeing just a 15.7% target share with a 15.9% target rate. He'll have his moments throughout the season if Pickett continues to progress and push the ball more downfield than Mitch Trubisky, but you'll never be able to predict when those moments will be.
Other Fallers: Albert Okwuegbunam, Dalton Schultz, Brandon Aiyuk, Cam Akers
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