Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 4

September 26, 2018

Fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. Jason Katz looks at players whose fantasy value has changed over the past week.

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement. The same goes for fantasy football, and managing rosters effectively is key to winning that championship.

Throughout the season, players get hot and see an increased role while others struggle and fight to stay relevant. Experienced fantasy players know this happens every year. In this weekly column, we’ll showcase those who have taken important steps forward and those who have taken steps back.

These are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. Dynasty owners, check out our separate Dynasty Risers/Fallers segment as well.

Week 4 Risers

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

After a pedestrian Week 1, Matt Ryan has now posted back to back elite QB1 performances, including a 40 point outing last week. Ryan has seven passing touchdowns over the last two weeks and gets a Bengals defense that is currently allowing the sixth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)

Instrumental in Matt Ryan's touchdown throwing was obviously not Julio Jones because he doesn't score touchdowns. Instead, it was rookie Calvin Ridley, who spent the first half of last week's game matching Julio's entire 2017 touchdown total. It's been a long time since Ryan has had two legitimate options at receiver - not since the Roddy White days - but it looks like Ridley has broken out. His ownership percentage is sure to rise and he could establish himself as an every week starting option.

Robert Woods (WR, LAR)

Heading into Week 3, Robert Woods led the Rams in targets and air yards, but it hadn't yet materialized into high level fantasy production. That all changed with his 10-104-2 performance. Jared Goff and this elite Rams offense can support three fantasy viable receivers. Leading the pack thus far has been Woods. His ADP did not make any sense this season, especially considering he was going after Cooper Kupp despite clearly playing ahead of him all of last season. Woods is an every week WR2.

Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)

The rookie WR has seen his target share rise each of the first three games. Christian Kirk saw eight targets last week, catching seven for 90 yards. With the Cardinals moving to Josh Rosen, that only bolsters Kirk's season long outlook as it is difficult to imagine Rosen can possibly be worse than Sam Bradford. Kirk has WR3 upside.

Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)

I was admittedly too low on Kerryon Johnson as a prospect. He is definitely a capable player. I still don't think he's anything special, but he's clearly the best RB on the Lions. LeGarrette Blount is an embarrassment and Theo Riddick is still just a pass catcher. Johnson eclipsed 100 yards on just 16 carries last week and should be in line for an increased role going forward. He may never be more than a Flex play, but he's the back to own in Detroit.

Vance McDonald (TE, PIT)

Did you see what Vance McDonald did to Chris Conte Monday night? That ain't right. McDonald played 48% of the Steelers offensive snaps and ran more routes than Jesse James. McDonald is the TE the Steelers want to feature in their passing game. He's now got two games under his belt and looks to be establishing himself as a legitimate fantasy option.

The Browns

All things Browns are looking brighter with the removal of Tyrod Taylor in favor of the vastly superior Baker Mayfield. It was evident after just one play how ready Mayfield is for the big time. He's the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and is going to cement himself as the future of the Browns if he hasn't already. Mayfield's presence means better targets for Jarvis Landry and David Njoku, more big play upside for Antonio Callaway, and more trips to the red zone for Carlos Hyde.

Week 4 Fallers

Tom Brady (QB, NE)

It was really befuddling to see Tom Brady being drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds this year as if he is some sort of difference maker at the position. Brady's last 300 yard passing game was November 19, 2017. This season, he's seeing the following things decrease with each game: attempts, yards, touchdowns, and his team's margin of victory (or lack thereof). Part of the problem may simply be the lack of pass catching options. The Patriots only dressed three receivers Monday night, two of which were Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson. Things may get better once Josh Gordon is integrated into the lineup and with Julian Edelman's return, but something is wrong in New England and Brady is just another guy at the QB position for now.

Randall Cobb (WR, GB)

The good news for Randall Cobb is that the targets are still there. He saw 11 last week. The bad news is Aaron Rodgers may not trust him anymore. It is exceedingly difficult to pin a loss on one specific player, but we may have to make an exception in Cobb's case. Cobb only caught four of those targets and the ones he didn't catch...oh boy. Cobb had two critical drops, a miscommunication with Rodgers that almost resulted in a pick, and a game ending fumble. It is hard to play worse and even harder to trust Cobb in lineups this week.

Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)

This is just your weekly reminder that every once in a while Amari Cooper attempts to fool you into thinking he's actually useful. He is not. Cooper followed up his anomalous 10 catch, 116 yard effort with his standard 2-17 line. A matchup with the Browns is not as enticing as you may think.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

I considered leaving Larry Fitzgerald off this list due to the switch at QB to Josh Rosen, but I just can't because he cannot be trusted in lineups until we see what his rapport is with the rookie. Fitz, like Brady, has seen his stats and opportunity decrease over each week. His targets, receptions, and yards have dropped every week. He managed just nine yards on two receptions last week. The Cards' offense has his rock bottom so the only question now is whether it stays there or bounces back. Head Coach Steve Wilks has proven to be completely incompetent and Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy apparently thought benching David Johnson on 4th and 2 so he could give a carry to a backup rookie RB on the most important play of the game was a good idea. The Cardinals are a mess. This is not what Fitz had in mind when he decided to return for another season.

Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis (RBs, TEN)

Derrick Henry has yet to reach six fantasy points in a game this season. Those are Amari Cooper type numbers. Meanwhile, after a huge 22 point Week 1, Dion Lewis has disappeared, posting 12.3 fantasy points combined in Weeks 2 and 3. The Titans offense was supposed to be revamped after moving on from Mike Mularkey. Instead, the Mike Vrabel era has been just as bad. The Titans won last week in a field goal battle because nothing made sense in Week 3, but nothing about what we saw was encouraging. A game against Philly this week should present some negative game script, which bodes well for Lewis, in theory. In practice, I think you wait and see with both Titans backs if possible.

Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA)

Kenyan Drake quickly went from trusted RB2 with RB1 upside to "do I even start this guy?" Drake is still dominating snaps ahead of Frank Gore (66%-34%) but the touch count is largely equal. Drake has 30 carries on the season to Gore's 23. Last week, Drake managed all of three yards on his five carries. It was an all time terrible performance. Am I supposed to get excited about a trip to Foxboro?

George Kittle (TE, SF)

The most optimistic player on this list appears last and it is George Kittle. I still like Kittle as a TE1, but his upside obviously took a hit with Jimmy Garoppolo's torn ACL. Kittle thrived with Garoppolo and now has to deal with C.J. Beathard the rest of the way. You can certainly do worse than Beathard, but he was a checkdown machine last year and the catalyst behind all the Carlos Hyde targets. Kittle will be fine overall, but he will likely be more safety blanket than explosive play guy with Beathard.

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