RADIO
Top fantasy football risers and fallers heading into Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. Adam Koffler identifies players at QB, RB, WR, and TE whose trade value for fantasy football is rising or falling.
Week 10 is now officially in the books. We have a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 11 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 10 of the NFL season.
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Week 11 Fantasy Football Risers
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He's been "A" riser before, but now he's "THE" biggest riser coming out of Week 10. White not only got the start against the Seahawks in Germany, but Leonard Fournette suffered a hip injury in the third quarter and did not return. Fournette is reportedly ok, but White was already starting to take control of this backfield prior to the injury.
Prior to Fournette leaving the game, White handled 42.3% of the RB opportunities, operating as the starting running back in both the first and second half. While still not over half of the opportunities, White clearly looked like the better of the two backs in Week 10. He rushed 22 times for 105 yards (4.8 yards per carry), while Fournette rushed 14 times for 57 yards and a score (4.1 yards per carry).
White had runs of 18 yards and 29 yards against the Seahawks, a threshold Fournette has yet to cross this season. The vet's longest carry of the season went for just 17 yards back in Week 1. Since that time, he hasn't gained more than 14 yards on any single one of his 114 carries.
Even if Fournette is active and deemed healthy for the Bucs' Week 12 matchup with the Browns, the rookie should remain the starter and could see over 50% of the RB opportunities (with both backs healthy) for the first time all season.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
DPJ, as they call him, has now quietly gone over 70 receiving yards in five of his last six games. He has yet to find paydirt, but given the opportunities that are coming his way, that's sure to happen sooner rather than later.
For better or for worse, the Browns also have just two more games with Jacoby Brissett as their starter before Deshaun Watson returns. Brissett has proven to have some bit of chemistry with Peoples-Jones, but there's no denying Watson's ability as a quarterback.
With a greater than 90% snap share since Week 5, DPJ has solidified himself as a full-time wide receiver on a good football team. Despite not scoring a touchdown, Peoples-Jones has averaged 11.8 PPR points in his last six games, good for WR35 during that stretch. Consider him a solid WR3 with a high upside due to his ability to stretch the field and catch a long touchdown pass at any time.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
I get it, nobody wants to believe in one big game from a rookie receiver on the Packers. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been great this season, and the Packers' offensive attack has been mediocre at best.
However, with fellow rookie wideout Romeo Doubs out, Watson made the most of his opportunity in Week 10. He caught four of eight targets for 107 yards and three touchdowns. He played on a season-high 84% of the snaps and his eight targets were good for a 42.1% target share. That shouldn't go overlooked, especially considering Doubs is going to be sidelined for an extended period of time.
He likely won't catch three touchdowns in any one game the remainder of the season, but it's hard to ignore Watson's second-round draft capital and 99th-percentile athleticism profile. Buy, buy, buy.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
One of my favorite players and a guy I've consistently hyped up this season. Rondale Moore all of a sudden looks the part of a very good NFL wide receiver. Just take a look at this grab from Week 10:
He's averaging 18.9 PPR fantasy points on 10.3 targets in his last three games. That's good for WR11 on a per-game basis in the last three weeks. He's playing nearly an every-down role for the Cardinals and has increased his yards per catch average from 8.06 as a rookie to 10.1 this season.
The only two games Moore has seen fewer than eight targets were in his first game of the season (Week 4) and in Week 7 when he was relegated to an outside receiver with A.J. Green not playing and Robbie Anderson brand new to the team.
And Zach Ertz has now officially been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, which elevates Moore's floor and ceiling even more moving forward.
For now (at least until Marquise Brown returns), Moore should be considered a very solid PPR WR2.
Other Risers: Kenneth Walker III, Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco, Parris Campbell
Week 11 Fantasy Football Fallers
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Prior to Christian McCaffrey's arrival in San Francisco, Deebo was averaging 7.8 targets and 3.8 rush attempts per game. Since CMC joined the team in Week 7, Deebo has averaged just 6.5 targets and 2.5 rush attempts per game. He also hasn't found paydirt since Week 5 after scoring a touchdown three times in his first five games.
It's not that Deebo can't still be great. He can be, but he's not going to put up those spectacular 20+ point performances with McCaffrey in town. Not to mention Elijah Mitchell is also getting work out of the backfield, which throws another wrench into the equation.
Samuel, like his teammate George Kittle, is one of the best in the business at his position. The problem is, with so many weapons at Jimmy Garoppolo's disposal, it's hard to see him living up to expectations. In fact, he's scored fewer than 11.3 fantasy points in three of his last four games. In 2021, he scored under 11.3 fantasy points just once.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
He's not just a faller, CEH is able to be dropped in all formats. This isn't a hot take, it's the reality of the situation, especially as fantasy managers deal with bye weeks.
Since Isiah Pacheco took over as the "starter" in Week 7, here are Edwards-Helaire's snap shares: 27% > 17% > 6%. You read that right, in Week 10, CEH saw just 6% of the snaps and didn't record a single point on just two targets. He didn't have a single carry for the first time in his three-year career.
The only way Edwards-Helaire is relevant again this season is if Pacheco and/or Jerick McKinnon suffer some sort of injury and are forced to miss time. Until then, CEH is clearly third in the Chiefs' backfield pecking order. It might be hard to part ways with a guy who scored 20+ points in two of his first four games, but the Chiefs are telling us Pacheco is the lead dog with McKinnon owning passing-down work.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Hunt was supposed to have standalone value this season as a back-end RB2. That hasn't happened thus far, and it doesn't look like it's going to happen any time soon. He has now scored single-digit fantasy points in six of nine games this season. In Week 10, Hunt played on a season-low 36% of the snaps and got just 27.3% of the RB opportunities.
He was a candidate to be moved at the deadline, something his fantasy managers were very interested in as he could have become a league-winner on another team with a larger workload. Instead, it looks like Chubb has a stranglehold on the job in Cleveland, with Hunt being nothing more than a complimentary piece.
Unlike CEH, Hunt is not a drop candidate as it would take just one injury to Chubb for him to become a bell-cow. Hold him, but understand there's not as much standalone value on a week-to-week basis as there had been in past seasons.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Olave has now played three full games with Jarvis Landry this season. In those games, he's averaging seven targets per game. In his other five games without Landry, Olave is averaging 9.8 targets per game. With Landry, he's averaging just 11 PPR fantasy points. Without Landry, he's averaging 16 PPR fantasy points.
It's not necessarily that Landry is some crazy high target earner at this stage in his career, but he's more competition for Olave than say, Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith.
Olave can still be great, and he has been. Just because he's a faller heading into Week 11 does not in any way, shape, or form mean you should sell him in say a dynasty league. However, temper expectations for now as the Saints have scored just 15.7 points per game and are ranked dead last in the pace of play (52.3 plays) in their last three games.
Other Fallers: George Kittle, D.J. Moore, A.J. Dillon, Cade Otton
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