X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Outlook For Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - rotoballer icon

Rob takes a look at what to expect from the new-look New York Jets passing game this year in fantasy football. The Jets just traded for Aaron Rodgers, a significant upgrade from the terrible trio they employed last year. How does that trade impact Garrett Wilson and what to make of Aaron Rodgers?

It finally happened! The Aaron Rodgers trade saga is done and thankfully, it will not negatively impact our enjoyment of the NFL Draft. It would’ve been awfully disappointing if we needed to hear about the updated “news” on this little drama between every couple of picks. Aaron Rodgers is finally, officially, the starting quarterback of the New York Jets. How we got here isn’t important, but what is important is deciphering just what his fantasy value is in New York and how his addition impacts Garrett Wilson.

Previous Fantasy Football outlook articles based on some of the biggest NFL free agency moves this offseason:

Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect any massive changes to ADPs and rankings as most sites and early drafters were operating under the premise that Rodgers has been a Jet since March, which is fair. The outcome we got on Monday was always destined to happen. Now, we can take a hard look at how the market has been handling Rodgers and Wilson as teammates in New York and determine if it has been correct.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Aaron Rodgers, the Four-Time MVP

Aaron Rodgers has been a bad man on the football field for a long time. However, he is coming off the worst statistical year of his career since becoming a starter, which makes his back-to-back MVP seasons feel a bit further away than they actually are.

What fantasy managers need to determine is whether this was a sign of Father Time nipping at his heels or due to a significantly depleted group of pass-catchers and a nagging thumb injury on his throwing hand. The answer, like with most things, is likely somewhere in the middle.

Rodgers is 39 years old, and he’ll turn 40 late in the 2023 season. There isn’t a lot of data on quarterbacks playing at the ages of 39 and 40 because most, if not all, do not make it this far. Due to injuries or a date with Father Time, quarterbacks rarely make it to the top of the age mountain where Rodgers currently stands.

That said, even last year, Rodgers demonstrated he was still capable of playing quality football and was drastically better than the rag-tag group of signal-callers the Jets had last season.

Below is a table that takes Rodgers’ worst statistical season in each passing category and compares that to the Jets’ QB room last year. Now, we get a glimpse at the kind of upgrade the very worst Aaron Rodgers has to offer. This should be fun.

Player Completion Percentage TD Percentage Interception Percentage Yards Per Attempt QB Rating
Jets 2022 QBs 56.9% 2.4% 2.2% 6.4 75.0
Worst  Rodgers Ever 60.7% 4.2% 2.5% 6.80 91.1

Now, we'll take Rodgers’ worst career seasons in all of those categories and determine what kind of overall stats he would have finished with on the same number of pass attempts as the Jets’ quarterbacks.

Player Completions Passing Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Jets 2022 QBs 357 4,040 15 14
Worst Rodgers Ever 381 4,262 26 16

As you can see, even if the Jets are getting the worst version of Rodgers, it still means 24 more completions, 224 more yards, and 11 more touchdowns. I want to emphasize that last part- 11 more touchdowns. For all the pass-catchers in New York, that is huge.

Now, let’s assume that Rodgers is able to win round one against Father Time in 2023 and performs at a career-average rate. What would his season look like with the Jets' passing volume from 2022 compared to what the Jets actually got out of the quarterback position?

Player Completions Passing Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Jets 2022 QBs 357 4,040 15 14
Career Average Rodgers 409 4,828 39 9

We’re talking about 52 more completions, 788 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 24 more touchdowns. Okay, I fully admit there are absolutely zero reasons for Rodgers to put up the best statistical season of his career at 40 years old while playing for a new team for the first time in his career. But after seeing how ridiculous the previous table is, let’s just go down that road for fun, shall we? The following table is just a humorous look at how bad the Jets' quarterbacks were last season and how insanely good Rodgers can be when everything is clicking.

Player Completions Passing Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Jets 2022 QBs 357 4,040 15 14
Best Ever Rodgers 443 5,768 57 2

Once again, we shouldn't expect those types of numbers from Rodgers. That table took his career-best completion percentage, touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and interception rate just for fun.

However, I think it's fair to expect an Aaron Rodgers somewhere in the middle of the first two tables above, assuming the Jets' passing volume stays the same. Even if his 2023 ends up leaning more closely toward the first table, it’s still a significant upgrade from the Jets’ quarterback play last season.

While you might believe the pass attempts will increase from last year now that the Jets have Rodgers, the reality is the passing volume will likely drop ever so slightly. This is because Rodgers will do a much better job of keeping his team in games and they won’t be forced to play catch-up as much as they did last season.

Assuming they drop from seventh in pass attempts per game to league average, the Jets would finish with around 580 pass attempts for the year. This would likely result in a season where Rodgers finishes with around 375 completions (64.6%), 4,275 yards (7.37 YPA), 29 touchdowns (5.0%), and nine interceptions (1.5%). Let's say he chips in roughly 75 rushing yards and a sneak score, he’d finish with 280.5 fantasy points or 16.5 PPG. Last year, he would’ve finished tied with Tom Brady at QB16 with those numbers.

He’s currently being drafted as the QB15, which is in line with the projection above, making him neither a player that fantasy managers should be targeting nor one that they should be avoiding. He appears to be correctly valued at this time and is best viewed as a middle-of-the-road QB2.

 

Garrett Wilson’s Special Rookie Season

Garrett Wilson had an incredibly special rookie season considering the quarterback play he received. The quarterback rating statistic has its shortcomings like any singular statistic does, but it gives you an idea of how poor the Jets' quarterback play was.

Among the 33 quarterbacks who qualified for this stat, the Jets' team QB rating of 75.0 ranked dead last. For perspective, Kenny Pickett (76.7), Davis Mills(78.8), Baker Mayfield (79.0), and Carson Wentz (80.2) all had higher ratings. You get the picture, it was bad.

Here’s the kicker: while many will argue that Mike White and Joe Flacco were upgrades over Zach Wilson, they too were awful too! Wilson was the only Jets quarterback who qualified for the quarterback rating statistic and he finished with a 72.8. White finished with a rating of 75.7 and Flacco was at 75.2. Both numbers would’ve been last had none of their Jets’ teammates qualified. So, had Flacco or White qualified, all three Jets would’ve been at the very bottom of the list, the very last three on the list. At this point, we've established just how bad the quarterback play was last year. Now, let's talk about what Wilson managed to do in spite of it.

Player Targets Target Share Receptions Receiving Yards Air Yards Unrealized Air Yards YAC Red Zone Targets Yards Per Route Run Targets Per Route Run Half-PPR PPG
G, Wilson 147 (6th) 24.9% (21st) 83 (16th) 1,103 (14th) 1,575 (11th) 837 (6th) 365 (19th) 19 (9th) 2.02 (29th) 26.9% (16th) 10.2 (WR30)

As shown in the table, despite the Jets’ quarterbacks' efforts to limit his production, Wilson had an outstanding rookie season. He was an absolute stud from day one and if he had just an average quarterback instead of the league’s worst, Wilson might have had one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory.

Although Wilson only had four touchdowns, which tied for 37th among receivers, he had the sixth most total targets and the ninth most red zone targets, as illustrated above. In fact, his utilization in the red zone was even better.

Wilson was tied for sixth with 10 targets inside the 10-yard line and tied for ninth with 11 end zone targets. Given the number of total targets he received, as well as the ample red zone and end zone opportunities, it's crazy he only scored four touchdowns.

So how will Rodgers impact Wilson? When we examine some of the best Packer receivers, aside from Davante Adams, I found that Greg Jennings averaged a catch rate of 60% with Rodgers and had a 15.2- yard per reception average. He scored a touchdown on 6.9% of his targets as well. Jordy Nelson had a catch rate of 65.8%, a 14.3-yard per reception average, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. James Jones had a catch rate of 60%, a 14.4-yard per reception average, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. Randall Cobb had a catch rate of 69.6%, a yard-per-reception average of 11.9, and a touchdown rate of 6.1%.

Now, let's consider the following scenario: Wilson has a 25% target share on the 580 attempts we projected for Rodgers earlier. This is the same target share he had last year. We’ll assume he catches 60% of his passes (up from 56% last year), similar to Jennings and Jones, and finishes with a 14.0-yard per reception average (up from 13.2 yards last year). We’ll also give him a 5% touchdown rate, which is up from 2.7% last year but still well below the aforementioned quartet.

Player Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns Half-PPR PPG
G, Wilson 145 87 1,218 7 12.2

That 12.2 PPG average would have finished as the WR15. Now, let’s say Wilson has a catch rate of 62.5%, which is in between Jones/Jennings and Nelson, and we increase the touchdown rate to 6%. We’ll keep the same 14 YPR.

Player Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns Half-PPR PPG
G, Wilson 145 91 1,274 9 13.3

This 13.3 PPG average would’ve finished as the WR10 last year. For our final scenario, let’s give Wilson a 65% catch rate, similar to Jordy Nelson, and the same 8.0% touchdown rate. What happens then?

Player Targets Receptions Yards Touchdowns Half-PPR PPG
G, Wilson 145 94 1,316 11.5 14.5

That 14.5 PPG average would’ve finished as the WR9, just behind CeeDee Lamb. This range of outcomes feels the most realistic for Wilson in 2023 with Rodgers at the helm, WR9 – WR15. Currently, he's being drafted around WR10, which feels a touch high because there’s not much room for upside. You’re close to acquiring him at his realistic ceiling. However, with a player coming off a rookie season like the one he had and having just received a substantial quarterback upgrade, that’s likely to happen.

Fantasy managers don’t need to avoid or target Wilson at this range either, very similar to Rodgers. His price point is, for the most part, fair market value, and he’s someone fantasy managers should draft accordingly. It may be a touch high, but considering his age, upside, and quarterback upgrade, we’re fortunate that his cost is still within his realistic range of outcomes.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fielding Calls For First Pick In Round 2
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
George Pickens

Steelers Receiving Calls About George Pickens
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Feel Forced To Draft A Running Back
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw

Has Successful Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Glasnow

Will Start On Sunday Against Pirates
Francisco Alvarez

Reinstated From Injured List, Starting On Friday
Merrill Kelly

To Make His Next Start On Saturday
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jaxson Dart

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF