Fantasy Football Outlook For Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson

It finally happened! The Aaron Rodgers trade saga is done and thankfully, it will not negatively impact our enjoyment of the NFL Draft. It would’ve been awfully disappointing if we needed to hear about the updated “news” on this little drama between every couple of picks. Aaron Rodgers is finally, officially, the starting quarterback of the New York Jets. How we got here isn’t important, but what is important is deciphering just what his fantasy value is in New York and how his addition impacts Garrett Wilson.

Previous Fantasy Football outlook articles based on some of the biggest NFL free agency moves this offseason:

• DJ Moore's Trade to Chicago
• Derek Carr's Signing in New Orleans – How Does This Affect Carr and Chris Olave?
• Miles Sanders Signing with the Carolina Panthers

Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect any massive changes to ADPs and rankings as most sites and early drafters were operating under the premise that Rodgers has been a Jet since March, which is fair. The outcome we got on Monday was always destined to happen. Now, we can take a hard look at how the market has been handling Rodgers and Wilson as teammates in New York and determine if it has been correct.

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Aaron Rodgers, the Four-Time MVP

Aaron Rodgers has been a bad man on the football field for a long time. However, he is coming off the worst statistical year of his career since becoming a starter, which makes his back-to-back MVP seasons feel a bit further away than they actually are.

What fantasy managers need to determine is whether this was a sign of Father Time nipping at his heels or due to a significantly depleted group of pass-catchers and a nagging thumb injury on his throwing hand. The answer, like with most things, is likely somewhere in the middle.

Rodgers is 39 years old, and he’ll turn 40 late in the 2023 season. There isn’t a lot of data on quarterbacks playing at the ages of 39 and 40 because most, if not all, do not make it this far. Due to injuries or a date with Father Time, quarterbacks rarely make it to the top of the age mountain where Rodgers currently stands.

That said, even last year, Rodgers demonstrated he was still capable of playing quality football and was drastically better than the rag-tag group of signal-callers the Jets had last season.

Below is a table that takes Rodgers’ worst statistical season in each passing category and compares that to the Jets’ QB room last year. Now, we get a glimpse at the kind of upgrade the very worst Aaron Rodgers has to offer. This should be fun.

Now, we'll take Rodgers’ worst career seasons in all of those categories and determine what kind of overall stats he would have finished with on the same number of pass attempts as the Jets’ quarterbacks.

As you can see, even if the Jets are getting the worst version of Rodgers, it still means 24 more completions, 224 more yards, and 11 more touchdowns. I want to emphasize that last part- 11 more touchdowns. For all the pass-catchers in New York, that is huge.

Now, let’s assume that Rodgers is able to win round one against Father Time in 2023 and performs at a career-average rate. What would his season look like with the Jets' passing volume from 2022 compared to what the Jets actually got out of the quarterback position?

We’re talking about 52 more completions, 788 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 24 more touchdowns. Okay, I fully admit there are absolutely zero reasons for Rodgers to put up the best statistical season of his career at 40 years old while playing for a new team for the first time in his career. But after seeing how ridiculous the previous table is, let’s just go down that road for fun, shall we? The following table is just a humorous look at how bad the Jets' quarterbacks were last season and how insanely good Rodgers can be when everything is clicking.

Once again, we shouldn't expect those types of numbers from Rodgers. That table took his career-best completion percentage, touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and interception rate just for fun.

However, I think it's fair to expect an Aaron Rodgers somewhere in the middle of the first two tables above, assuming the Jets' passing volume stays the same. Even if his 2023 ends up leaning more closely toward the first table, it’s still a significant upgrade from the Jets’ quarterback play last season.

While you might believe the pass attempts will increase from last year now that the Jets have Rodgers, the reality is the passing volume will likely drop ever so slightly. This is because Rodgers will do a much better job of keeping his team in games and they won’t be forced to play catch-up as much as they did last season.

Assuming they drop from seventh in pass attempts per game to league average, the Jets would finish with around 580 pass attempts for the year. This would likely result in a season where Rodgers finishes with around 375 completions (64.6%), 4,275 yards (7.37 YPA), 29 touchdowns (5.0%), and nine interceptions (1.5%). Let's say he chips in roughly 75 rushing yards and a sneak score, he’d finish with 280.5 fantasy points or 16.5 PPG. Last year, he would’ve finished tied with Tom Brady at QB16 with those numbers.

He’s currently being drafted as the QB15, which is in line with the projection above, making him neither a player that fantasy managers should be targeting nor one that they should be avoiding. He appears to be correctly valued at this time and is best viewed as a middle-of-the-road QB2.

Garrett Wilson’s Special Rookie Season

Garrett Wilson had an incredibly special rookie season considering the quarterback play he received. The quarterback rating statistic has its shortcomings like any singular statistic does, but it gives you an idea of how poor the Jets' quarterback play was.

Among the 33 quarterbacks who qualified for this stat, the Jets' team QB rating of 75.0 ranked dead last. For perspective, Kenny Pickett (76.7), Davis Mills(78.8), Baker Mayfield (79.0), and Carson Wentz (80.2) all had higher ratings. You get the picture, it was bad.

Here’s the kicker: while many will argue that Mike White and Joe Flacco were upgrades over Zach Wilson, they too were awful too! Wilson was the only Jets quarterback who qualified for the quarterback rating statistic and he finished with a 72.8. White finished with a rating of 75.7 and Flacco was at 75.2. Both numbers would’ve been last had none of their Jets’ teammates qualified. So, had Flacco or White qualified, all three Jets would’ve been at the very bottom of the list, the very last three on the list. At this point, we've established just how bad the quarterback play was last year. Now, let's talk about what Wilson managed to do in spite of it.

As shown in the table, despite the Jets’ quarterbacks' efforts to limit his production, Wilson had an outstanding rookie season. He was an absolute stud from day one and if he had just an average quarterback instead of the league’s worst, Wilson might have had one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory.

Although Wilson only had four touchdowns, which tied for 37th among receivers, he had the sixth most total targets and the ninth most red zone targets, as illustrated above. In fact, his utilization in the red zone was even better.

Wilson was tied for sixth with 10 targets inside the 10-yard line and tied for ninth with 11 end zone targets. Given the number of total targets he received, as well as the ample red zone and end zone opportunities, it's crazy he only scored four touchdowns.

So how will Rodgers impact Wilson? When we examine some of the best Packer receivers, aside from Davante Adams, I found that Greg Jennings averaged a catch rate of 60% with Rodgers and had a 15.2- yard per reception average. He scored a touchdown on 6.9% of his targets as well. Jordy Nelson had a catch rate of 65.8%, a 14.3-yard per reception average, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. James Jones had a catch rate of 60%, a 14.4-yard per reception average, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. Randall Cobb had a catch rate of 69.6%, a yard-per-reception average of 11.9, and a touchdown rate of 6.1%.

Now, let's consider the following scenario: Wilson has a 25% target share on the 580 attempts we projected for Rodgers earlier. This is the same target share he had last year. We’ll assume he catches 60% of his passes (up from 56% last year), similar to Jennings and Jones, and finishes with a 14.0-yard per reception average (up from 13.2 yards last year). We’ll also give him a 5% touchdown rate, which is up from 2.7% last year but still well below the aforementioned quartet.

That 12.2 PPG average would have finished as the WR15. Now, let’s say Wilson has a catch rate of 62.5%, which is in between Jones/Jennings and Nelson, and we increase the touchdown rate to 6%. We’ll keep the same 14 YPR.

This 13.3 PPG average would’ve finished as the WR10 last year. For our final scenario, let’s give Wilson a 65% catch rate, similar to Jordy Nelson, and the same 8.0% touchdown rate. What happens then?

That 14.5 PPG average would’ve finished as the WR9, just behind CeeDee Lamb. This range of outcomes feels the most realistic for Wilson in 2023 with Rodgers at the helm, WR9 – WR15. Currently, he's being drafted around WR10, which feels a touch high because there’s not much room for upside. You’re close to acquiring him at his realistic ceiling. However, with a player coming off a rookie season like the one he had and having just received a substantial quarterback upgrade, that’s likely to happen.

Fantasy managers don’t need to avoid or target Wilson at this range either, very similar to Rodgers. His price point is, for the most part, fair market value, and he’s someone fantasy managers should draft accordingly. It may be a touch high, but considering his age, upside, and quarterback upgrade, we’re fortunate that his cost is still within his realistic range of outcomes.

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