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Justin's dynasty fantasy football fallers and losers based on the 2022 NFL Draft. These are his fantasy football busts and avoids in 2022 fantasy drafts.
With the NFL Draft over, it's time to start thinking about how the results of the draft impact your dynasty rosters. Today, we have a look at who "lost" the draft from a dynasty perspective.
Some of these are veteran players whose teams drafted obvious replacements for them. Some are young players who are in the same situation. And some are rookies who landed in bad spots.
Check out the first part of this piece to see who I thought were dynasty winners after the NFL Draft. And feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk more about these players.
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Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo
By taking James Cook in the second round, the Bills signaled that it was time to make a move at running back.
In terms of fantasy value, Devin Singletary is hurt the most, since he still had fantasy value. Cook's ability to actually do things in the passing game will push Singletary off the field more, making it hard for him to ever get to his 2021 numbers—1,098 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns—again. He'll still have a role in 2022, but is he more than a situational back on some other NFL team beyond 2022?
As for Moss, any remaining hope about him should have already been gone. After some heavy usage games early in the year, he was inactive three times down the stretch and had 13 total carries and three targets over the final three weeks of the season. His short and long-term value is gone.
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
A fourth-round pick in 2021, lots of people thought Carter had put up numbers that were encouraging enough for him to get a shot to be the Jets' starting running back moving forward.
But the Jets squashed that, taking Breece Hall in the second round. The dynamic back from Iowa State is capable of doing a lot of everything, which pushes Carter into more of a reserve role. He's still young, but he's also a mid-round pick who is on a cost-controlled deal through 2024, which means that I'd guess Carter is going to spend the next few years as nothing more than a Breece Hall insurance policy. Not good for his dynasty value.
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers had two good receivers on their roster heading into the draft in Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. They went and drafted George Pickens anyway, and then added Calvin Austin III in the fourth round.
Claypool had a lower snap rate than Johnson last year, which makes me think that if we see one of the two established Steelers receivers lose some more snaps to Pickens, it'll be Claypool. Johnson is the established No. 1 receiver here and while his upcoming free agency could throw a wrench into things, the Steelers should have the money to pay him.
Another factor: the downgrade at QB from Ben Roethlisberger to either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett lowers the ceiling for Claypool.
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants
Robinson landed with the Giants, the team where promising wide receivers go to languish away the years. The current roster has Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. All of those guys have gotten hype before. All of them have had some moments. And yet, none are reaching their ceiling in this Giants offense.
Sure, things can change. But second-round receivers need to get on the field and get reps to improve, which is something that might be tough to do on this current roster. And if Robinson doesn't get early snaps, does he just turn into another Denzel Mims or Jalen Reagor—promising players at one point whose lack of Year 1 snaps probably contributed to their struggles beyond that?
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
McBride was the first tight end taken in this draft, but he feels a bit like a luxury. The Cardinals did play 22% of their snaps with two tight ends last year, but they played 13% of their snaps with four wideouts and no tight ends, per Sharp Football Stats.
For 2022, Arizona has Zach Ertz, who showed last year that he's still a solid player. But even with Ertz, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom half of the league in the percentage of targets going to the tight end. And the year before, without Ertz, they targeted the position at the fourth-lowest rate.
As long as Kliff Kingsbury is the coach in Arizona, the Cardinals will spread the ball out to receivers and it will take a special kind of tight end to earn looks. Is McBride that kind of tight end? Maybe! But I wish he'd landed somewhere that used the position more reliably.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Penny ended 2021 on a tear. From Week 13 on, Penny was sixth in rushing attempts and first in rushing yards, gaining 706 yards in that span, an average of 6.92 yards per carry. Among receivers with more than 10 attempts in that span, Penny led in YPC.
That led a lot of people to assume the oft-injured back was the Seahawks' go-to guy moving forward. Instead, Seattle drafted Kenneth Walker III. Walker was dominant at Michigan State. He forced 89 missed tackles and was a factor in the passing game as well. He can make plays after contact. He's elusive. He's just...really good, and drafting him is a sign that while Penny was impressive to end last season, his days in Seattle are likely numbered. Penny hits free agency after this season and it's hard to see him sticking around Seattle. His injury concerns might make it hard for him to find a feature role in free agency.
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