Draft Busts and Players to Avoid: RotoBaller Staff Picks

August 25, 2020

The 2020 NFL season is almost here and fantasy football drafts are underway. The RotoBaller staff advises which QB, RB, WR, and TE to fade or avoid as potential busts based on ADP.

The RotoBaller NFL staff has many thoughts on the biggest potential busts and avoids for 2020 fantasy football.

Some of our analysts have agreed to sum up their thoughts on the top players to fade in drafts based on inflated ADP, playing time concerns, or other variables.

Here are the top players at each position that we recommend staying away from this draft season.

What QB are you avoiding in 2020?

Lamar Jackson because he's going to regress from his MVP campaign and at his current ADP there's just too many solid WRs and RBs to pass on given the overall depth of the QB position, especially in one-QB leagues. -Mike Riggall

Kyler Murray. His current ADP seems to be based more about what people are projecting him to do, rather than what he's already done. Think he's realistically a QB1, but many are drafting him in the top 5 among QBs and I don't feel comfortable doing the same. -Eli Grabanski

Aaron Rodgers. He was up-and-down last season and wasn't putting up the consistent numbers fantasy managers had hoped. He will now turn 37 this season, so the QB is no longer an elite option. -Rishi Patel

Aaron Rodgers. He's not good anymore. He hasn't been a difference-maker since 2016. He's 36 years old and has the worst set of pass-catchers in recent memory outside of Davante Adams. Why is he still priced as a QB1? -Jason Katz

Baker Mayfield. I think we all got caught up in his debut performance and keep expecting him to live up to the #1 pick billing but it hasn't happened even with an excellent supporting cast. Freddie Kitchens may be to blame for the team's ineptitude last year but I don't see a big step forward coming as the team may lean on its real strength this year - the ground game. -Pierre Camus

Deshaun Watson. Watson is still being viewed as a potential top-5 QB in 2020 and I just do not see it. The loss of Hopkins was offset by the addition of Brandin Cooks, leaving him with one of the most oft-injured receiving groups in the league. Game scripts may be in his favor, but with question marks at receiver and along the offensive line, turnovers could become a problem for Watson. -Brandon Murchison

Josh Allen is an exciting new leader for a much-improved Bills offense, but this still isn't a team I expect to put up gaudy offensive numbers throughout the year. They have a great defense and they should win a lot of low-scoring games, which doesn't compute to elite fantasy production. Don't count on him as your No. 1. -Andrew Ericksen

What RB are you avoiding in 2020?

David Johnson. He looked terrible on film last year (especially the second half of the year) and didn't run very hard. He's only cracked 1,000 rushing yards once in his career, all the way back in 2016, and he's a career 4.0 YPC runner. His receiving upside, which has been his bread and butter in recent years, is limited with Duke Johnson on the Texans. He's older than Le'Veon Bell, so his decline in recent years shouldn't really be a surprise to anyone. The primary arguments to take him are that he was good in 2016, and/or the Houston Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for him. You can't trust Bill O'Brien to give him a heavy workload and that's why DJ is a fade for me at his current ADP. -Eli Grabanski

David Johnson. Staying with the Texans, it is hard for me to imagine seeing Johnson return to his former fantasy glory. He clearly looked as though he had lost a step in 2019 and has been largely invisible in fantasy for three seasons. Yet I am supposed to believe that he will magically turn back the clock with a new team? I'm not buying it. -Brandon Murchison

David Montgomery because he's one of the least talented RBs of the past decade. He is too slow to play in the NFL, could barely muster an RB3 finish on 267 touches with 10.7 PPG. He doesn't contribute in the passing game because of Tarik Cohen. The Bears aren't the greatest offense. If you asked me the first thing I think of when I hear the words "no upside," I'd tell you Sony Michel. If you asked me the second thing I think of, I'd tell you David Montgomery. -Jason Katz

Derrick Henry. I haven't picked him yet this draft season and it doesn't look like I will. I've got Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs ahead of him in my rankings, so there's no chance he'll fall to me in the second round anywhere. I think he'll be solid but now that he's locked up to a big contract, there's no way the Titans feed him 300 carries again. The offense as a whole was hyper-efficient and should regress, so I don't see how he delivers enough ROI to warrant a first-round pick. Plus, we all know the injury history of RBs coming off of seasons with monster usage. -Pierre Camus

Joe Mixon is a great running back, but he's just so hard to count on as an RB1 in a Bengals offense that's going to struggle to stay in games. His price is just too high and I can't see him returning equal or greater value on it. -Andrew Ericksen

Todd Gurley II. Even though he is the RB1 in Atlanta, his recent injury history should be cause for concern and any setback during the season could be a problem for fantasy owners. -Rishi Patel

Todd Gurley because his burst is gone, he's no longer a stud and there are other ascending players available around his ADP that could bust out in 2020. -Mike Riggall

What WR are you avoiding in 2020?

DeAndre Hopkins. At his current ADP, I'm a little worried. He's on a new team in a weird offseason. Think he's better in 2021, but there'll be some rough patches in 2020 as he tries to develop chemistry with Kyler. If he falls a bit I might draft him, but his current ADP is a little high. -Eli Grabanski

DeAndre Hopkins. A lot of this has to do with where he is going - there's just no chance I would ever pass on the running backs in DHop's range to take any WR. There's also history working against Hopkins switching teams and producing in the first year. Combine that with the unconventional offseason and the Cardinals' propensity to run three and four-receiver sets and Hopkins is not setup to be the target vacuum he was in Houston. He's still one of the best receivers in the league, but at cost, I'm not interested. -Jason Katz

Julio Jones is going to have another solid season to add to his fantastic career, but I worry that the team's going to try and keep preserving him by lessening his workload and increasing Ridley's. If Jones falls in your draft's, he's worth jumping on, but as the fourth receiver off the board right now, the price is too high. -Andrew Ericksen

Amari Cooper because at his ADP, you should get a consistent week to week performer, not a guy that will disappear from week to week. I will let somebody else deal with trying to predict when he will go off or get benched. -Mike Riggall

Cooper Kupp. Sure, Kupp was the WR2 in fantasy for the first half of the 2019 season. But in Weeks 9-16 as the Rams turned to the 12 personnel, Kupp was the WR44. He ended the year with a score in five straight games offsetting the lack of usage, but if the scores are not there in 2020, you may be overpaying for what you think is an elite receiver in fantasy. -Brandon Murchison

Marquise Brown. This isn't a strict avoid but I keep pushing him down my rankings and probably won't risk it with him. We've heard how he wasn't fully healthy all last season but in this offense, he won't suddenly become a target hog. This is a run-first and second offense with Mark Andrews occupying most of the interior targets. The fact that a receiver who relies on speed more than size added 20+ pounds over the offseason is the last straw. -Pierre Camus

T.Y. Hilton. Now on the wrong side of 30 and with a new QB, Hilton's fantasy value takes a hit in addition to factoring his recent injuries. The presence of younger receivers on the team like rookie Michael Pittman Jr. could mean Hilton's production may decrease. -Rishi Patel

What TE are you avoiding in 2020?

The mid-round TEs. I'm fine with taking George Kittle or Travis Kelce early. If I don't, then I'm waiting for the late round guys. The value just isn't there for the likes of Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Darren Waller, and Tyler Higbee. It wouldn't shock me if any of them finished top five, but I can't be passing on the WRs to take a TE when there are so many useful guys available late. -Jason Katz

Rob Gronkowski. Despite his chemistry with Tom Brady, the new Buccaneer is older, injury-prone, and now needs to fend off other talented pass-catchers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard for targets. -Rishi Patel

Darren Waller was a great story last year and should still be right in the mix for a TE1 finish to end the year, but the Raiders have added more young playmakers and Waller won't be able to surprise defenses as much this year. Take him if he falls in your draft but don't reach. -Andrew Ericksen

Darren Waller because at his current ADP there's still solid WR's left on the board. Waller is currently being drafted based on his 2019 production playing in an offense that lacked any threats. The Raiders added Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Nelson Agholor this offseason and they will get Tyrell Williams back, so things are shaping up as well for Waller. -Mike Riggall

Jared Cook is at the low-end of the TE1 ranks but doesn't have the upside of a player like Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant, or TJ Hockenson. The Saints had nary a receiver to throw to outside of Michael Thomas last year and Emmanuel Sanders is excellent at working the middle of the field. Rookie Adam Trautman will be worked in the mix as he's meant to replace Cook after this season. His numbers should be down a bit from last year, which makes him unappealing relative to the competition. -Pierre Camus

Austin Hooper. I have done several drafts up until this point in the summer and have yet to land Hooper in any. He is still being valued as a top-10 player at the position, but I'm afraid he will have a tough time returning that value. The Browns passing attack has just too many mouths to feed for Hooper to get near the target percentage he's used to. With the lack of receptions, he value takes a dip and he will have to rely on the touchdowns that may not come. -Brandon Murchison

Mike Gesicki - Chad O'Shea actually used Gesicki pretty frequently, but historically Chan Gailey hasn't been one to pepper his tight-ends with targets. Think this is a hype train that busts for this year. -Eli Grabanski

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