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J.K. Dobbins may just be one of the hardest fantasy football players to evaluate for the 2023 NFL season. There are so many factors to consider and it’s hard to know how any one of them are going to play out, much less all of them.
Fantasy managers will need to consider his significant knee injury from 2021 that caused him to miss that entire season and still negatively affected him throughout the vast majority of this past season. Then there’s the running back by committee approach Baltimore has often employed between Dobbins and Gus Edwards. You need to account for Lamar Jackson stealing rushing work and touchdowns. On top of all of that, there’s a new offensive coordinator, which gives the appearance the Baltimore offense could be operating quite differently than what we’ve become accustomed to.
There is no shortage of variables to consider with the fourth-year pro and they all affect what his fantasy football value will be this season. To help you out, we’ll be doing a deep dive into Dobbins’ fantasy prospects to determine if you should be in or out, and remember, with fantasy football right around the corner, be sure to use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off of any premium purchase.
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The Todd Monken Effect
While looking back at how Todd Monken has run his offenses during his four years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL will be helpful, none of them had Lamar Jackson at quarterback, which will undoubtedly affect how your offense operates. For instance, in four years, his offenses have averaged 366 carries per season and just 55 of them were handled by his quarterbacks. Jackson’s skillset changes everything, so while there’s certainly something to be gained from looking at his previous offenses, it all needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
One thing, however, is painfully obvious — the Ravens are going to pass a lot more. In four seasons as an offensive coordinator, Monken has averaged 623 pass attempts per season. Compare that to the 501 attempts the Ravens have averaged since Jackson became the starter in 2019.
Looking not just at the hire of Monken, but at the team’s offseason as a whole, it’s crystal clear Baltimore has every intention of throwing the ball quite a bit more than they have in their pass. They signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. These three additions speak very loudly to a shift in offensive philosophy.
In theory, that should be a positive thing for Dobbins’ PPR value, but fantasy managers will need to keep their excitement held in check. That’s because, since 2019, Jackson has targeted his running backs on just 11.8% of his pass attempts. Last season, the league average running back target share per team was 18%. Jackson is only part of the problem. In Monken’s four years as an offensive coordinator (three in Tampa Bay and one in Cleveland), his teams directed just 16.5% of their pass attempts to their running backs.
Even if we ratchet Baltimore’s pass attempt per game average to 34.5, which would’ve been 12th last season, and assume a 14% running back target share, that still only equates to 82 targets. 15% would be 88. These numbers would’ve ranked 28th and 21st respectively last season.
Dobbins started in a timeshare during his rookie season but started to separate a bit during the second half of the season. From Weeks 8–17, he had a 4.7% target share. Last year, Dobbins didn’t look “right” until he returned from a minor knee scope in Week 14. For the five remaining games he played after he had a 6.4% target share. Combining his two best stints in his young career, Dobbins holds a 5.9% target share.
Using our 587 estimated pass attempts for 2023, based on his career average, we’d expect him to have around 35 targets. Entering his fourth year and now fully healthy, it’d be reasonable to expect a slight increase in his target share, but I’d advise proceeding cautiously thinking he’s going to have much more than 40–45 targets this season.
The Triple-Headed Monster
Then there’s the rushing distribution between Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Dobbins that fantasy managers need to worry about. Since 2019, Jackson has been averaging 10.9 carries per game. He’s handled around 32% of the team’s carries since that time.
Jackson has maintained that level of volume inside the red zone, as well. He handled 26% of the red zone carries in 2019, 31% in 2020, 30% in 2021, and 31% in 2021. These numbers show incredible consistency from year to year. Of course that could change under Monken, but it would be hard to envision a drastic change considering how effective Jackson is running the football.
One interesting statistic to take notice of is how his usage changes inside the 5-yard line. His rushing percentage has generally decreased in this area with the exception of 2021 when the Ravens’ were decimated by running back injuries. In 2019, he handled 22% of the carries inside the 5-yard line, 42% in 2021, and 29% this past season. However, in 2020, his percentage dropped all the way down to 13%. Why is that important? Because it coincides with Dobbins’ only fully healthy season in Baltimore. In fact, from Weeks 8–17, Dobbins handled 44% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line.
Due to the rushing volume handled by Jackson and Edwards, the volume Dobbins will see on the ground is limited. From Weeks 8–17, Dobbins averaged 12.2 carries per game with Edwards and Jackson both active. This past season, during Weeks 14–17 and Week 19, the last five weeks he appeared in, the former Buckeye averaged 14 carries per game. However, during this time, Jackson was injured and it was Tyler Huntley behind center.
If there's one thing fantasy managers could be optimistic about, it's Monken's utilization of his No. 1 running back during his past coaching experience. In 2016, Tampa Bay's starting running back was Doug Martin. He only played in eight games that season, but averaged 18 carries per game. The next season, Martin averaged 16 carries per game in the seven games he had at least a 30% snap share. Again, Martin struggled with injuries, but when he was healthy, he operated as a workhorse. In his final season for Tampa Bay, Monken gave Peyton Barber 14.6 carries per game over 16 appearances. He was out of the NFL in 2018 before becoming the offensive coordinator for the Browns in 2019. That season he gave Nick Chubb 18.6 carries per game over 16 games.
While we don't know exactly how this backfield will play out, fantasy managers should expect Dobbins to lead the way and it shouldn't be surprising to see Jackson have the fewest carries of his career on a per-game basis. Over Monken's four years as an offensive coordinator, his teams averaged 25.4 carries per game, which equals 432 over 17 games. Last year, this would've ranked 21st. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Baltimore's rush attempts to drop that low, but it's reasonable to expect them to be more in the middle in rush attempts as opposed to the high-end they've operated at since 2019.
Baltimore has averaged 33.2 carries per game or 565 over 17 games. Fantasy managers should expect the Baltimore offense to meet in the middle between these two extremes, likely finishing with around 27 carries per game. Last year, this would've had them finishing 15th in total rush attempts. Based on the 34.5 pass attempts per game we projected earlier, Baltimore has the appearance of a much more balanced offensive attack this season.
Assuming Dobbins handles 45% of the carries, Jackson 28%, Edwards 22%, and the remaining backs 5%, Dobbins would average roughly 12 carries per game. This would give Jackson eight carries per game, Edwards would have six, and the remaining backs would have one. Dobbins' elite efficiency could still allow him to be a quality fantasy player, but there are some concerns regarding this kind of workload and what kind of ceiling he realistically has.
Can JK Dobbins' Knee Be Trusted?
If you were a fantasy manager who invested in Dobbins last season, it may be incredibly difficult to envision going back to the well after what happened last season. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his health and talent going into the 2023 season. If there were any concerns, he completely put them to bed with his play when he returned after his mid-season surgery.
| Year | YPC | RYOE | EPA/Carry | Broken Tackle % | YAC/Attempt |
Breakaway Run Rate
|
| 2020 | 6.0 | 1.59 | 0.18 | 5.2% | 2.9 | 8.2% |
| Weeks 14–17 & 19 | 6.6 | 2.15 | 0.20 | 10.0% | 2.3 | 10.9% |
Following his rookie season Dobbins became a breakout favorite due to his elite efficiency, displayed in the table above. There were few running backs who were as productive and efficient as Dobbins was with his touches in 2020. As you can see from the table above, he exceeded almost every single one of these efficiency metrics at the end of last season, finally resembling his pre-injury form. With a full offseason to continue strengthening his body and being another full year removed from surgery, fantasy managers should expect to see the best version of Dobbins we've seen. With Jackson's return to the lineup and the strength of Baltimore's offensive line, Dobbins looks poised to once again be one of the more efficient running backs in the NFL.
JK Dobbins’s production and durability issues were expected in year 1 from multi-ligament (ACL+LCL+meniscus) knee surgery.
This injury impact projects to last 19-22 months, and he’s now past that.
Expecting Dobbins to be back to his pre-injury trajectory to start ‘23@PFF_Sam…
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) May 28, 2023
Time to Decide... Are You In or Out?
Hopefully, at this time you have a much better idea of what to expect out of Dobbins and the Baltimore offense this season. Using our projections for him as earlier stated, we should reasonably expect Dobbins to finish with a stat line as indicated below.
| Time Period | Carries | Rushing Yards | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Total Touches | Scrimmage Yards | TDs | Half-PPR PPG |
| Per Game | 12.0 | 68.5 | 2.05 | 1.5 | 11 | 13.6 | 79.5 | 0.47 |
11.4
|
| 17-Game Pace | 204 | 1,164 | 35 | 26 | 169 | 230 | 1,333 | 8 |
Dobbins carries an Underdog ranking of RB17 with an ADP of 57.1, which will require fantasy managers to use a fifth-round pick to get him on their roster. Last season, this 11.4 half-PPR PPG average would have resulted in an RB24 finish. There is some risk in this projection since we're giving him a 45% share of the carries, something he didn't do in Weeks 8–17 of 2020 or in Weeks 14–19 in 2022.
The numbers above are quite good and I'm certainly in on Dobbins at the right price, but based on the workload above, I'm not entirely sure there's much of a difference between Isiah Pacheco, who is available in the sixth round. It's quite possible he has a similar workload on the ground but with possibly even higher touchdown potential. While Pacheco's receiving utilization may not be as strong as Dobbins', he is a full round cheaper.
I'm certainly in on Dobbins's talent and believe he's going to be very good this season, but at his current price tag, I'm out. As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off of any premium purchase.
