X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids- AFC East Breakdowns For Gabriel Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, more

Gabriel Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Rob looks at each NFL team in the AFC East and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.

This is the third entry in this new series that looks at fantasy players you should be targeting and avoiding from each team. This series is divided into the eight different divisions across the NFL. For this particular article, players from the AFC East will be evaluated using their Yahoo! half-PPR ADPs. As is the case with almost everything in life, cost is everything and this will be the driving force of this article.

Looking at the AFC East, the division offers many high-value targets such as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Rhamondre Stevenson. However, there are very few options in the second-tier and flex-level starters. That made this particular edition more difficult than the previous two entries on the AFC North and the NFC North.

Be sure to look out for future entries, which will include the NFC East, AFC/NFC South, and AFC/NFC West. With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Buffalo Bills

Players to Target- WR Gabriel Davis

Last offseason, fantasy football Twitter spent countless hours debating Gabriel Davis' fantasy value. A disappointing year where Davis struggled with a high-ankle sprain and missed two games caused fantasy managers to be largely turned off by the Davis experience. However, there has been a significant overcorrection to his fantasy value.

Last year, he finished as the WR32 in half-PPR points per game (PPG). He had an average of 10.2 PPG, just 0.2 points behind Michael Pittman Jr. He also had a higher PPG average than Garrett Wilson. Unfortunately, he was drafted as a WR2 last season. Now, fantasy managers are valuing Davis in the same manner they did last year but in the opposite way.

He finished the 2022 season with 93 targets, 48 receptions, 836 yards, and seven touchdowns. This marked his third straight season with at least six touchdowns. He was on pace for just under 950 yards, and all the reasons Davis got hyped up last year are still present.

The Bills still lack a true No. 2 target, giving him ample opportunity to attract Josh Allen's attention. Despite the disappointment, he still posted an 18% target share. This may not be too exciting, but it carries more weight in Buffalo with Allen at quarterback and the pass-heavy nature of Buffalo's offense.

Interestingly, Davis finished 10 spots higher last year than his current draft position. Fantasy managers on Yahoo! are currently selecting him as the WR42. This may evoke some ill-advised feelings from readers, but we should never be all-in or all-out on any player. The most important factor in any fantasy debate comes down to price. Last year, Davis' ADP as a WR2 was much too high. This year, his current ADP at WR42 is too low.

Players to Avoid- RB Damien Harris

Damien Harris currently has an ADP of RB40, which is far from expensive. What is the upside in Buffalo? Especially with James Cook, their 2022 second-round pick, in the backfield, too. Over the past three seasons, since Josh Allen became the Josh Allen we all know now, the running backs have averaged 303 carries per season. That's a huge red flag, indicating limited opportunity in this backfield.

Additionally, Harris provides next to nothing in the passing game. He has never had 25 targets, 20 receptions, or 150 receiving yards in any of his four seasons in the NFL. A lot of the love Harris receives as a late-round pick is associated with his touchdown potential, but how realistic is that?

Last year, all of the Bills' running backs combined for just seven rushing touchdowns. In 2021, they scored 12 rushing touchdowns. In 2020, they scored eight times on the ground. Over the last three years, all the running backs in Buffalo have combined for just nine rushing scores each season.

Cook was one of the more efficient rushers last season, albeit on a smaller sample size, but Buffalo likely wants to get him the ball more. The Bills also signed free agent Latavius Murray, who could factor into this backfield. Considering the workload history of Buffalo running backs, it seems challenging to project Harris for more than 150 carries this season.

Based on their historical averages over the past three seasons, this would roughly account for a 50% share. Realistically, it could be even less than that if Cook receives 50% of the workload and Murray handles a few carries as well. Even if we assume 150 carries for Harris, that puts him around 600-675 yards rushing and contributes minimally in the passing game.

Ultimately, this all comes down to touchdowns. There just haven't been enough of those in recent years for fantasy managers to get excited about. In two out of the past three seasons, all of the Bills' running backs combined didn't even score nine rushing touchdowns.

Personally, Zay Flowers or Skyy Moore are the better draft picks in Harris' range. Then draft a pure handcuff running back later such as Jaylen Warren, or take a flier on rookie Roschon Johnson and the ambiguous Chicago backfield.

 

Miami Dolphins

Players to Target- RB De'Von Achane, RB Raheem Mostert, and RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

Fantasy managers are treating every Miami RB as if Dalvin Cook is already in Miami, but that's certainly not a guarantee. Achane is currently being drafted on Yahoo! as the RB41, Mostert is at RB48, and Wilson is at RB56. They'll cost fantasy managers a 10th, 13th, or 14th-round pick, respectively.

If Cook had already signed in Buffalo or Denver, how would that change the ADPs of the three running backs already in Miami? They would all absolutely shoot up. The Miami offense is a high-scoring unit, and this backfield is going to produce either one elite running back or several fantasy-relevant ones (think RB3).

Taking any of these players in the 10th, 13th, or 14th rounds is not going to ruin your draft or destroy your season. If Cook does end up signing with Miami, then your 10th, 13th, or 14th-rounder will end up busting. This happens to the vast majority of players going in this range. That's the status quo in those ranges.

However, all that needs to happen for Achane, Mostert, and Wilson to be significant values is for Cook to sign with any of the other 31 teams. Currently, Cook is +125 to end up in Miami, which implies a 56% chance that he does not sign in Miami.

Out of these three players, Achane should primarily be targeted because he's the most talented and explosive of the trio. The other target would be Wilson because he's the cheapest. After he was traded to Miami, he worked in a 50/50 timeshare with Mostert. Therefore, it makes sense to draft the cheaper one if the team decides to bring along the rookie slowly in the event Cook ends up elsewhere.

Players to Avoid- None

There's no reason to avoid any players on the Miami offense right now. Tua Tagovailoa is being drafted as the QB12, which is a favorable position to target him. He was one of the most efficient passers last year when he was healthy and should be expected to continue that trend this year.

Tyreek Hill is currently being drafted as the WR4, and Jaylen Waddle is being drafted as the WR11. Neither of these price points should deter fantasy managers. Both players are appropriately valued and can be drafted accordingly.

 

New England Patriots

Players to Target- TE Mike Gesicki and TE Hunter Henry

Both of these tight ends are going incredibly late, where they're borderline free and just waiver-wire fodder. Gesicki is being drafted as the TE22 in the 15th round, while Henry finds himself going off the board as TE28 in the 18th round. Most 12-team leagues don't even have an 18th-round.

With limited options in the New England offense, Rhamondre Stevenson is appropriately valued as a backend RB1. He's the only player who holds starter value on the Patriots. No one else is likely even in the flex equation. This doesn't leave us with many options to choose from, but Gesicki and Henry are intriguing.

The New England offense significantly lacks talent at receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely the best out of the bunch, but even he is just a low-level slot player. DeVante Parker has struggled with injuries in recent seasons and has been a one-hit-wonder for the most part.

2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton disappointed mightily as a rookie and was widely regarded as a massive reach by Bill Belichick. His first-year play certainly supports that narrative. Quarterback Mac Jones is going to have to throw the ball somewhere. Considering offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's history of using two tight end sets the last time he was in New England, it shouldn't be surprising if both Gesicki and Henry are utilized considerably.

Of the two, Gesicki seems to have the most upside. He's more athletic and was often deployed as a receiver during his time with Miami. He was on the trade block last year as he did not fit what Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel wanted from the position. He has been productive in previous seasons, most recently in 2020 and 2021 when he finished with over 700 yards in back-to-back seasons.

As for Henry, in his first season with the Patriots, he found the end zone nine times. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if one of these two tight ends becomes fantasy-relevant. The offense is in desperate need of pass-catchers. Through the early part of OTAs, it appears that they're focusing on the tight ends being a big part of their game plan.

Players to Avoid- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn't had a target share above 20% since 2018. In the four years since that season, his target share has remained between 14.5% and 19.5%. Even on a high-passing volume offense with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that kind of target share only provided him with WR3 value.

In New England, it won't have the same impact. Last season, the Patriots had just 540 passes, which is 110 fewer than Kansas City. If we allocate an 18% target share to Smith-Schuster on 550 passes, he would end up with only 99 targets. There's simply no upside here. The best-case scenario is a WR3 finish, and that's being optimistic.

Considering his WR44 cost on Yahoo!, fantasy managers are not getting much of a discount for such a limited ceiling. It would be wiser for fantasy managers to target players like Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers, or even Jameson Williams, who are available at a similar price tag.

 

New York Jets

Players to Target- WR Garrett Wilson

Fantasy managers are certainly bullish on Wilson now that Aaron Rodgers is in New York. He's currently being selected as the WR10 with a mid-second-round ADP. It's an aggressive position, but fantasy managers shouldn't be scared away by the cost. There's a decent chance Wilson could even outperform his current preseason ranking.

The upgrades Rodgers will bring to the Jets' pass-catchers are almost unimaginable due to their significant impact. In the following table, Rodgers' career completion percentage, yards per attempt average, and touchdown rate are compared to the number of attempts the Jets' quarterbacks threw last season.

Player Completions Passing Yards Touchdowns Interceptions
Jets 2022 QBs 357 4,040 15 14
Rodgers Career Average 409 4,828 39 9

The difference is substantial and almost unbelievable. We're talking about 52 more completions, 788 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 24 more touchdowns. Davante Adams is excluded from the following analysis due to his extremely high ceiling, even for Wilson.

When we examine some of the best Packers receivers, it was found that Greg Jennings averaged a 60% catch rate with Rodgers. This results in an average of 15.2 yards per reception (YPR). He also scored a touchdown on 6.9% of his targets. Jordy Nelson had a catch rate of 65.8%, an average of 14.3 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%.

James Jones had a catch rate of 60%, an average of 14.4 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. Randall Cobb had a catch rate of 69.6%, an average of 11.9 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 6.1%. Considering how well other previous highly skilled receivers performed with Rodgers, fantasy managers should expect Wilson to exceed expectations.

If we maintain Wilson's target volume from last season (147) but give him a 62.5% completion rate and a 14.0 YPR average, he would finish with 92 receptions and 1,288 yards. With a 7.0% touchdown rate, he would have 10 touchdowns. This results in a 13.8 half-PPR PPG average. Last year, the WR10 averaged 13.4 half-PPR PPG.

Players to Avoid- WR Allen Lazard

If Wilson cannot be acquired, why would fantasy managers look to draft another piece of the New York Jets passing game? It seems highly probable that after Wilson, this passing game will employ a receiver-by-committee approach. With Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, and Tyler Conklin, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where any one player separates themselves from the pack.

If that does happen, the most likely options would be Lazard or Corey Davis. However, Lazard carries a WR52 ADP on Yahoo!, while Davis is at WR100. Davis has been the more productive player in his career and is widely considered to be more talented. Need proof? Let's look at the per-game averages last season when they both played 50% of the snaps in any given week (both missed time due to injuries).

Lazard averaged 5.6 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 47.4 receiving yards per game (YPG). Davis, on the other hand, averaged 6.6 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 52.5 receiving YPG. Considering one was catching passes from Zach Wilson and the other from Rodgers, the difference is relatively insignificant.

Similar to Smith-Schuster earlier, the best-case scenario for Lazard is a WR3, but even that seems unlikely. Fantasy managers are better off aiming higher. Players such as Zay Flowers, Skyy Moore, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, and Jonathan Mingo offer more upside. Apart from Flowers, who is drafted just before Lazard, all of them come at a lower cost.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF