Jumping Ship on Bad Offenses?

Justin Carter identifies players on bad NFL teams like the Jaguars, Jets, Falcons, and Bears that might disappoint and become fantasy football busts in 2021 at RB, WR, and TE.

Sometimes, a bad offense can sink a good player. It happens every year.

In 2020, for instance, the Bengals scored the fourth-fewest points in the NFL. Tyler Boyd was targeted 10 times, but only finished with 841 yards and four touchdowns, dropping almost 10 yards per game over his 2019 numbers despite a catch rate that was 11 percent higher. Part of it was that there just weren't as many opportunities for him.

Today, we're going to look at four players who are on bad offenses and aren't living up to their potential yet. These are players who still have value, so you might want to be throwing some trade offers at other managers if they're stuck on your team, though you might eventually need to cut bait completely with one or two of them.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

No, I'm not suggesting that you drop Kyle Pitts. That would be very bad advice and I'd deserve to have my Fantasy Football Analyst card revoked.

What I am suggesting is that maybe you want to get out there and explore the trade market with him, because this Falcons offense just isn't the Falcons offense we're used to.

Atlanta ranks 30th in points and 25th in yards so far. Last year, the team ranked 16th in points and 18th in yards. And before that, the Falcon had spent six straight seasons ranked in the top 10 in yards.

Maybe Matt Ryan just ain't it at this point.

Add in that Pitts is a rookie pass-catcher and, well...I think this is your best sell window. He just had 73 yards against Tampa, but he was targeted just twice in the second half of the game, and he's not getting used in the deep passing game.

Pitts is good. But the Falcons offense isn't, so he'll be a rollercoaster of production/non-production this year. Maybe look to deal him away, but don't be too upset if you're stuck with him. He'll have big games.

Corey Davis, New York Jets

Alright, Pitts was the hot take to draw you in. Now let's get to some people who I'm really worried about.

Last year, Corey Davis broke out in Tennessee. After struggling early in his career, the former first-round pick set career highs in yards, yard per catch, touchdowns, and yards per game last season. He signed a big three-year, $37,500,000 deal with the Jets this offseason to give rookie Zach Wilson a real No. 1 target.

One week in, things were great. Davis caught five passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Carolina. But in Week 2, he crashed back to earth, with two catches for eight yards.

So, which is the real version of 2021 Corey Davis?

Both, probably. He'll have some big games, but this week, Braxton Berrios and Elijah Moore had more targets, and Jamison Crowder should be back soon.

This is a crowded receiving core on a team that has a rookie passer. Wilson won't throw four picks every week, but he sure won't throw a bunch of touchdowns either, based on how he's looked so far.

Wilson has actually had the second-most time to throw in the league and is sixth in intended air yards per play. Those should be good signs for Davis, and yet Elijah Moore is the team leader in aDOT. Not great if Moore is becoming the deep threat for Wilson.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

One of the biggest surprises last season was James Robinson, an undrafted rookie who rushed for over 1,000 yards and caught 49 passes.

Robinson is on track for the same kind of receiving production this year, but the rushing has just fallen off a cliff.

See, the Jags drafted Travis Etienne, something that was supposed to crush Robinson's value. But then Etienne suffered a season-ending injury, so Robinson should have been right back where he was in terms of expectations, right? High-end RB2 option based on volume?

Except there's not volume. He's averaging eight carries per game and 36 rushing yards per contest, a sharp drop from last year's 76.4 yards per game and 17.1 attempts.

Part of this is that the Jaguars offense under head coach Urban Meyer has been rough, though last year's team was bad too. The Jaguars averaged 19.1 points and 326.1 yards per game in 2020; this year, they're at 17.0 points and 292.0 yards. So, bad to worse and all that.

That could be fine if Robinson was still getting a huge share of the volume. Last year, Robinson saw 95.62 percent of the team's positional rushing attempts when he was active. This year, that's dropped to 59.26 because Carlos Hyde has arrived and has siphoned off roughly 35 percent of the work.

In this offense, getting 60 percent of the rushing attempts is probably not going to cut it when it comes to finding consistent production. Fantasy managers who were saved by Robinson in 2020 might be sunk by him this year.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

Maybe Justin Fields will unlock Mooney. Week 2 did see a big increase in his production, from five catches for 26 yards in Week 1 up to six for 66 in Week 2.

But the Bears remain adamant that Dalton is the starter when healthy. So, let's compare what Mooney has done from each QB. Per StatHead:

Dalton is throwing him the ball more, but he's averaging 5.5 yards per target with Dalton tossing him the rock. That is...bad. That was the number he averaged when Nick Foles was throwing him the ball last year, except Foles completed just 54.2 percent of his passes when targeting Mooney, while Dalton is at 81.8 percent.

Which is another thing: that'll go down.

On the bright side, Mooney has an overall aDOT of 8.6. But the long plays aren't connecting, and Andy Dalton remains last among qualifying QBs in intended air yards per play at 4.2. Fields doesn't qualify for that leaderboard, but his 3.4 intended air yards per pass attempt would...oh, last.

Yeah, there's not much receiving upside on this team.

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