X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Myth Busters - Debunking Myths in the NL East

This series will attempt to help fantasy baseball owners make informed opinions on players whose ADP may not be in line with their value for the 2018 season.

As fantasy owners, we can fall into a "group think" mentality and start to overlook certain teams and players. If we aren't careful, those ideas can turn into blind spots in our search for value during our auctions and drafts.

To examine some possible scenarios that could differentiate from our pre-season viewpoints, we will debunk possible myths from teams and players in the NL East.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Myth 1: The Marlins Won't Have Players with Much Value

While the team context may lower the counting statistics for the Marlins hitters, there are Marlins players that can provide value to our fantasy teams.

Justin Bour - 1B, MIA

Even in a park that suppresses power, Justin Bour increased his hard-contact rate to 38.8 Hard% in 2017, and the fact that he posted the 37th best exit velocity, 95.3 MPH, on FB%/LD% in MLB illustrates his ability to put the barrel on the ball. His power can play in any park, as he slugged 14 home runs at Marlins Park in 2017. Justin Bour also improved his platoon splits. While he has struggled versus LHP throughout his career, he posted an .809 OPS with six home runs in 87 AB against southpaws in 2017. With a career .866 OPS versus RHP and a .929 OPS versus RHP in 2017, Bour continues to slug against right-handed pitching. Even though his team context may lower his RBI totals, we can add Bour's power to our roster at a decent cost (NFBC ADP: 174).

Brad Ziegler, Drew Steckenrider - RPs, MIA

While Brad Ziegler may claim the early-season role as Miami’s closer, Drew Steckenrider has a chance to save twenty games in 2018. Ziegler missed fewer bats (9 SwStr%) in 2017 and spent 37 days on the DL with a strained back. When the opportunity arises, Steckenrider can create whiffs (14 SwStr% and 14.0 K/9) and throw first-pitch strikes (68 F-Strike%) consistently. A rising leverage index (1.34 LI) in the second-half illustrates Don Mattingly’s growing confidence in Steckenrider. Even though his ERA may move closer to his 3.14 xFIP in 2018, Steckenrider’s swing and miss pitches give him the ability to close out games. In deep leagues, you can wait until late (NFBC ADP: 371) in drafts to target Steckenrider's possible saves.

 

Myth 2: The Braves Bullpen is Set in Stone

Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter - RP, ATL

With the volatility in drafting closers, there are other possible relief pitcher options in Atlanta's bullpen behind Arodys Vizcaino.

Although it appears that Vizcaino is locked into the closer role, he spent 67 days on the DL in 2016 and missed 14 days in 2017. Yes, he misses bats (10.0 K/9 and 15 SwStr%) consistently, but allowing a number of fly balls (45 FB%) with increased hard-contact (33 Hard%) contributed to his 4.21 xFIP in 2017.

Some sites list Jose Ramirez (RHP) as the next in line. He made some improvements in 2017, as he increased his velocity on his fastball and induced more ground balls (46 GB%). His 3.19 ERA may be hard to repeat because his .226 BABIP was much lower than his career BABIP, and his 4.88 FIP tells more of the story.  Walks versus LHB (6.5 BB/9) were an issue in 2017.

Another possible option is A.J. Minter (LHP). In 15 innings pitched for Atlanta, the southpaw posted 26 strikeouts to two walks. Minter offers a fastball that averages 96 MPH and can touch 98 MPH. In 59 minor league IP, he struck out 77, walked 23, and posted a 2.14 ERA. While owners can draft Minter much later (NFBC ADP: 448), he also has an injury history with thoracic outlet syndrome and Tommy John surgery during his time at Texas A&M. If he can stay healthy, he has the skills to eventually win the closer's job.

 

Myth 3: Rhys Hoskins Will Definitely be the Most Valuable Hitter for the Phillies

If we use current ADP as a value guide, Rhys Hoskins (ADP:51) is clearly the most valuable hitter for the Phillies. When he was slugging his way through August with 11 home runs in 79 AB, he did not have as many swings and misses (15.2 K%) at the plate. Even when he drew more walks (20.8 BB%) in September, he also posted more strikeouts (26.7 K%). Yes, he has the minor league track record to support his production, and Steamer's projections are bullish on him with 37 projected home runs. Hoskins will need to show that he can adjust once pitchers make their 2018 adjustments.

With home run production up across all of MLB, there is another hitter that could get return close to Hoskins' value in rotisserie and H2H leagues.

Carlos Santana has a longer track record, and he has hit at least 20 home runs in five of the last six seasons. Santana's strong plate discipline throughout his career, which is supported by his career 15.2 BB%, 17 K%, and 81 contact%, bodes well for 2018. He makes hard contact 33% of the time, and he can hit well against RHP (.808 OPS) and LHP (.815 OPS). Steamer projects 27 home runs for the left-handed slugger, and he offers value at his current ADP, #182. Santana's steady production can also help out H2H owners.

 

Myth 4: The Mets Won't Find ABs for Wilmer Flores

With the signing of Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores is penciled in as a backup infielder for the Mets. The recent news should lower his draft stock (ADP: 318) even further over the next month.

In 2017, Flores increased his hard contact to 35.4 Hard%, posted a 46 FB%, and hit 18 home runs in 336 AB. Carrying over his FB%, maintaining his 2017 launch angle on FB%/LD% (27.3°), and holding his exit velocity gains (89.7 MPH in 2016; 91.3 MPH in 2017) on FB%/LD% would support his power going forward. With his ability to hit southpaws throughout this career, .838 career OPS versus LHP, he should find playing time on the short-side of the platoon. Luckily for Flores, his improvements against RHP, with a .765 OPS and 11 home runs in 233 AB, could open up more at-bats on the strong-side of the platoon.

With another 300-350 at-bats, Flores could match his 18 home runs for 2017, and an injury could open up more playing time to see if he can carry over his 2017 success vs. RHP.

 

Myth 5: Michael A. Taylor will offer the same value in 2018

After hitting 19 home runs in 2017, some fans are predicting that Michael A. Taylor will cross the 20-HR barrier in 2018.

Taylor increased his FB% to 37, and he supported his increased hard contact rate, 34 Hard%, with an exit velocity of 94.2 MPH (88th in MLB) on LD%/FB%. Holding the same rates could allow him to match Steamer's projection of 16 home runs, as his 20% HR/FB from 2017 could move closer to his 17% career-HR/FB.

Losing points in batting average could lower his 2018 value. Taylor rode a .351 BABIP versus RHP to post a .794 OPS against them, but his career .682 OPS and .318 career BABIP versus RHP is more indicative of his skills. Steamer projects Taylor to give back 26 points in batting average from .271 to .245. With a return to his career batting average of .243, he would lose R$ and H2H value in 2018.

On the plus side, Taylor's defense may continue to give him at-bats. Unfortunately, Taylor also has plenty of swing and miss (31.7 K%) in his game. With the return of Adam Eaton, monitor how Taylor handles the pressure to hold off Victor Robles for playing time.

 

More Myths to Debunk...

While these are just a few examples of NL East myths, there are others that we could research on our own. For example, we could spend time exploring the effect of Michael Conforto's injury on his 2018 at-bat totals. If he returns healthy in the summer, how will that affect at-bats for other New York OF? If his return takes longer, who will gain at-bats and possibly value?

As we continue to search for value in our drafts and auctions, we will look at myths and possible blind spots in the NL Central in the next article.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jacob deGrom13 mins ago

Throws Five Scoreless Innings
Nathaniel Lowe23 mins ago

Collects Three Hits
Mitchell Parker28 mins ago

Posts Strong Outing
Trea Turner35 mins ago

Likely Out Until Wednesday
J.T. Realmuto39 mins ago

Expected To Play On Monday
Lane Hutson1 hour ago

Continues Special Campaign With Hat Trick Of Assists
Trae Young1 hour ago

Playing Versus Milwaukee
Anfernee Simons1 hour ago

Cleared For Action Versus The Knicks
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 hour ago

Available On Sunday Night
Nick Suzuki1 hour ago

Notches Three Points In Sunday's Win
Robby Fabbri2 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Jacob Trouba2 hours ago

Could Be An Option Sunday
Jalen Brunson2 hours ago

Cleared For Basketball Activities
Jordan Staal2 hours ago

Will Not Play On Sunday
Manny Machado2 hours ago

Ready To Go On Sunday
Jerami Grant2 hours ago

Out Again On Sunday
Evgeni Malkin2 hours ago

Out Against Senators
Taj Bradley2 hours ago

Records Seven Strikeouts
Ryan Walker2 hours ago

Dealing With Back Issue
Camilo Doval2 hours ago

Notches Save On Sunday
Tobias Harris2 hours ago

Probable Versus Minnesota
Heliot Ramos2 hours ago

Blasts Homer In Win
Justin Fields2 hours ago

Aaron Glenn Thinks Justin Fields Is Ready To Break Out
Tomoyuki Sugano3 hours ago

Exits Due To Cramping
Michael Busch3 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
Dennis Schröder3 hours ago

Dennis Schroder Expected To Face The Timberwolves
Cade Cunningham3 hours ago

Doubtful For Sunday Night
Mark Williams3 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Pels
Dak Prescott3 hours ago

"Doing Great" In Rehab From Hamstring Surgery
Jacksonville Jaguars3 hours ago

Fred Johnson Signs With Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans4 hours ago

Titans Still Entertaining Calls For No. 1 Overall Pick
Esteury Ruiz4 hours ago

Designated For Assignment
Shea Langeliers4 hours ago

Sitting On Sunday
Karel Vejmelka4 hours ago

Makes 17th Consecutive Start Sunday
José Ramírez4 hours ago

Tests Return Negative For Jose Ramirez, Could Play On Monday
Arvid Soderblom5 hours ago

Tries To End Four-Game Skid Sunday
Alec Martinez5 hours ago

Misses Fourth Consecutive Game
Corey Seager5 hours ago

Sitting Out On Sunday
Brett de Geus5 hours ago

Miami Designates Brett de Geus For Assignment
Robert Bortuzzo5 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Olli Määttä5 hours ago

Olli Maatta Considered A Game-Time Call Sunday
Justin Turner5 hours ago

Starting On Sunday
Logan Thompson5 hours ago

Starts Against Sabres Sunday
Iván Herrera5 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Resting On Sunday
Rasmus Dahlin5 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Jonathan Ornelas5 hours ago

Promoted To Major-League Roster, Starting On Sunday
Cameron Payne5 hours ago

Ruled Out On Sunday
Trevor Story6 hours ago

Sitting On Sunday
Miles McBride6 hours ago

Remains Out On Sunday
Scoot Henderson6 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Brandon Aiyuk6 hours ago

Deadline Coming For Brandon Aiyuk
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

May Miss Sunday's Game
Ty Jerome6 hours ago

Out Again On Sunday
Kawhi Leonard6 hours ago

Sitting On Sunday Afternoon
Josh Berry10 hours ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano10 hours ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece10 hours ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott10 hours ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell10 hours ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney10 hours ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Leon Draisaitl11 hours ago

Leads The Way In Return
Artemi Panarin11 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
Jake Oettinger11 hours ago

Earns Fifth Straight Victory
Mikko Rantanen11 hours ago

Tallies Three Points On Saturday
SJ11 hours ago

Jimmy Schuldt Injured On Saturday
Colton Sissons11 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Denny Hamlin12 hours ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Austin Cindric12 hours ago

Martinsville Is Austin Cindric's Best Short Track
Kyle Busch12 hours ago

Short-Track Performance At Richard Childress Racing Is Pretty Dire
Brad Keselowski12 hours ago

If Brad Keselowski Has Any Speed Whatsoever, He's A Killer DFS Option
Noah Gragson12 hours ago

Teammates Will Likely Outrun Him On Sunday
Michael McDowell12 hours ago

Martinsville One Of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks
Ricky Stenhouse Jr12 hours ago

. Consistently Slow At Martinsville
Erik Jones12 hours ago

Has Worst Qualifying Run At A Track That Already Wasn't His Best
John Hunter Nemechek12 hours ago

Has Fastest Legacy Car, But That's Not Saying A Lot
Riley Herbst12 hours ago

Unlikely To Gain Enough Positions To Justify DFS Play
Cody Ware12 hours ago

Unlikely To Contend At Martinsville
Burt Myers12 hours ago

Southern Modified Legend Burt Myers Makes Cup Series Debut At Martinsville
NASCAR16 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Has Speed At Martinsville This Weekend
Kyle Larson16 hours ago

Should Kyle Larson Be Underestimated As A Favorite At Martinsville?
William Byron16 hours ago

Is Likely To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Dereck Lively II23 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus Chicago
Daniel Gafford23 hours ago

Officially Out On Saturday
P.J. Washington24 hours ago

Available Versus Chicago
Anthony Davis24 hours ago

Available On Saturday Night
Chicago Bears24 hours ago

Doug Kramer Jr. Re-Signs With Chicago
Washington Commanders1 day ago

Foster Sarell Inks One-Year Contract With Washington
Miami Dolphins1 day ago

Willie Gay Jr. Heading To Miami
Devin Carter1 day ago

Won't Return On Saturday
Seattle Seahawks1 day ago

D'Anthony Bell Signs With Seattle
Marcus Smart1 day ago

Returning On Saturday Night
Nikita Zadorov1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Bruins Lineup Saturday
Chandler Stephenson1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Saturday
Houston Texans1 day ago

Texans Sign E.J. Speed To One-Year Deal
Buffalo Bills1 day ago

Bills, Christian Benford Reach Agreement On Four-Year Extension
Detroit Lions2 days ago

Lions Re-Sign Kayode Awosika
Irvin Charles2 days ago

Jets Re-Sign Irvin Charles
Green Bay Packers2 days ago

Kristian Welch Signs With Green Bay
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Jeremiah Moon Heading To Pittsburgh
Teagan Quitoriano2 days ago

Falcons Sign Teagan Quitoriano
2 days ago

Tetairoa McMillan Scheduled To Visit With Panthers
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Reach Three-Year Contract Extension With John Harbaugh
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Devin White Signs With Las Vegas
Daniel Jones2 days ago

Gets Vote Of Confidence From Chris Ballard
Stefon Diggs2 days ago

Looking Forward To Playing With Drake Maye
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer2 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum2 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales2 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
David Martinez2 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Set To Open Up UFC Mexico City Main Card
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Jhonattan Vegas4 days ago

Not A Good Play At Houston Open
Gary Woodland4 days ago

A Dark-Horse Candidate At Houston Open
Nick Taylor4 days ago

Keep An Eye On Nick Taylor At Houston Open
Mackenzie Hughes4 days ago

Avoid Mackenzie Hughes At Houston Open
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Houston Open
Scottie Scheffler4 days ago

Returns To Houston Looking For Year's First Victory
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Making Additional Start At Houston Open To Prepare For Augusta
Doug Ghim4 days ago

Looking For Iron Form In Houston
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Keep An Eye On Aaron Rai At Houston Open
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

Looks To Build On Recent History At Memorial Park
Harry Hall5 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Harris English5 days ago

Looking To Build Off Solid Finish At The PLAYERS
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

A Risky Option At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Alex Smalley5 days ago

A Strong Play At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Michael Kim5 days ago

Bounces Back At Valspar Championship
PGA5 days ago

Sungjae Im Looking For Bounce-Back Performance At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Austin Eckroat5 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Texas Children's Houston Open
PGA5 days ago

Nico Echavarria A Volatile Option At Texas Children's Houston Open
Joe Highsmith5 days ago

Continues Post-Win Success And Is Looking For More In Houston
Adam Hadwin5 days ago

Far From Good Form As He Heads To Texas
Ben Griffin5 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Houston Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Free Agency Tracker - Updates On Every Free Agent Signing (2025)

HuThe NFL offseason is starting to heat up, and the league's legal tampering period is set to begin on March 10 at noon Eastern. Free agents cannot officially sign until the new league year begins on March 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern, but deals will be agreed to, and news will be coming in quickly […]


Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued Draft Targets For Every AFC Team

Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. Much will change over the next several months, including the rest of free agency, the NFL Draft, and training camp. However, it’s never too early to look at potential sleeper candidates and undervalued draft targets for next season. Therefore, let’s look at […]


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Worst NFL Contracts: Seven Overpaid, Overvalued Players For 2025

Free agency is in full swing, and teams are handing out big contracts left, right, and center. Myles Garrett became the highest-paid non-QB just a few weeks ago, and Ja'Marr Chase broke that record almost instantly! But big contracts aren't always a success; just ask these teams. These teams had high hopes when they spent […]


Tank Bigsby - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Dynasty Sleepers - Undervalued Running Backs For 2025

Getting ahead of the game is the name of the game in any game, especially if that game happens to be dynasty fantasy football and you want to find underrated running backs to add to your rosters. The shelf life for many RBs isn't very long in the NFL, so it's a position you want […]