Fantasy Basketball Risers and Fallers: Week 2

Welcome to the fantasy basketball risers and fallers column, a weekly look at the ebbs and flows of player performance. You'll get a detailed analysis of who's hot and who's not and why that will or will not remain the case. You can expect forward-looking analysis and a mix of immediate and long-term fantasy considerations. This is the place to be if you're trying to make sense of a Nemanja Bjelica near triple-double or a slow start from an established superstar like Damian Lillard—trust the pedigree.

Who's exceeding expectations? Who's falling short of expectations? Let's take a look at some early season trends!

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Fantasy Basketball Risers

Ja Morant - G, Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant appears to have taken a massive step forward this season. Even after a below-average showing against the Portland Trailblazers on Wednesday night, Morant is averaging 30 points, five rebounds, eight assists, one steal, and five turnovers. He needs to cut down on his turnovers and I’m confident he will, but it’s otherwise been all positive for Morant. Last season, he averaged 19 points,  four rebounds, seven assists, zero point nine steals, and three turnovers. While it’s unlikely he keeps up this precise level of production for a full season, his hot start is indicative of a player coming into a season healthy, with two years of regular season, play-in, and playoff experience under his belt. Even though Morant came into the league with an unusual level of polish, this is about the time where player improvements can really be seen and felt—the jump is real, if not the exact percentages. To further illustrate the point, Morant was less efficient as a sophomore (44.9 field goal percentage) than he was as a rookie (47.7 field goal percentage). In other words, even if Morant comes back down to earth a little—he won’t shoot 55.6% from the field and 45.8% from three all season—there’s still plenty of room for him to improve upon last year’s production.

Paul George - F, Los Angeles Clippers

I had my doubts about Paul George coming into the season. I wasn’t sure how good a Western Conference team could be when led by the 2021 version of George. George likes to pick his spots on offense and I wondered how he’d handle having to be "THE Guy" all the time, with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss the majority of the season due to injury. There are no definitive conclusions this early in the season, but after three games, my team-wide skepticism looked more grounded than my concerns about George individually. The Los Angeles Clippers were just 1-2 on the season, but George looked spry and explosive—recording eight steals on October 25 against the Portland Trail Blazers. Before George’s clunker in a loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night, he was averaging 28 points, seven rebounds, five assists, four steals, and three turnovers. He looked like the same smooth, efficient marksman he’s been for the majority of his career. After the loss to the Cavs, George’s numbers are slightly less impressive—24 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, and 3 turnovers, while shooting 46% from the field, 30% from three, and 100% (6 of 6) from the free-throw line.

The stage is set for George to have a big year as long as he’s healthy. He’s carrying the largest usage of his career (31.1%) so far this season and he’s tied for the most threes of his career (9.8 attempts a game). Furthermore, there’s little reason for his rebounding and assist totals to decrease given Leonard’s absence and the Clippers tendency to play small. In other words, the raw counting stats should be there almost by necessity. The question for George’s season is simply, “how good” it will be. George has only averaged 25 or more points once in his career, back in 2018-19 when he averaged 28 points a game. If he can average 26-28 points rather than 21-23, that’s a win for fantasy managers. His assists and turnover numbers will also tell the story of his season. How will he handle primary playmaking responsibilities and the increased attention from defenses? How will he deal with double teams and traps? Can he maintain his efficiency from three-point range (38% for his career) on increased volume? Lastly, can he manage to get to the free-throw line at last year’s pre-rule-changes frequency? He's averaging just one free-throw attempt a game this season, compared to four free-throw attempts a game last year.

Julius Randle - F, New York Knicks

I was similarly skeptical of Julius Randle’s ability to duplicate what he did in last year’s breakout season. The Knicks loaded up on offensive weapons this summer and with more capable ball-handlers and shot creators around him, I assumed he’d have fewer playmaking opportunities this year. That has decidedly not been the case. Randle’s usage rate is up to 30.2% from 28.5% last season. He’s taking 21.3 FGA compared to 18.6 FGA last season. He’s still averaging six assists and one more rebound this season—11.3 RPG compared to 10.2 RPG last season. He hasn’t found his shooting stroke and is therefore falling short of last season’s shooting percentages. In 2020-21 he finished the season with shooting splits of 45/41/81. So far this season he’s shooting 42/31/87. Randle is actually taking more threes a game—seven this season compared to just five last season. If you assume he’s going to experience some positive shooting regression from three, and maintain his assist numbers, Randle is in line for another monster season.

Fantasy Basketball Fallers

Killian Hayes - G, Detroit Pistons

Killian Hayes continues to struggle in year two of his NBA career. After three games, Hayes is averaging 4 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 turnover a game this season. He’s 5 of 22 from the field (22.7%), 2 of 5 from three (40%), and a perfect 2 of 2 from the free-throw line. Hayes has just eight assists in three games, two steals, and three turnovers. He’s keeping the turnovers to a minimum, but that might be a negative indicator as well. It could suggest he’s not creating enough of an advantage to throw anything but “keep the possession moving” passes and that he lacks the creativity and daring-do that leads to turnovers. His usage rate is down from 18% to 16.5% this season. And maybe most telling of all, he’s only averaging 22 minutes a game on a rebuilding team. This is, of course, all taking place with Cade Cunningham sidelined with an ankle injury.  He could be even more marginalized once Cunningham returns.

Jalen Suggs - G, Orlando Magic

Unlike Hayes, Jalen Suggs is at least averaging double figures and getting to the free-throw line with some regularity (four FTA a game). Here’s his full stat line: 11 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers, and one steal. Suggs is putting more numbers than Hayes on the stat sheet across the board. Suggs has scored in double figures in four of the Orlando Magic’s five games so far this season. The raw box score numbers say Suggs has more athletic juice and, though Hayes might be the better position and team defender, Suggs is the better defensive playmaker at the moment. And given Suggs athleticism, I’d expect that to continue. He can really get up when he has a chance to load up and jump off two feet, as he did against Jimmy Butler in transition the other night.

Suggs being listed in the "fallers" section is a fall from preseason expectations. It appears that Suggs is a better defensive player than offensive player at this moment in his career, and it may be a season or two before he’s an efficient scorer. His athleticism shows up in his steal numbers, but the fact that he’s a better two-foot than one-foot leaper might limit his effectiveness as a finisher early in his career.

All of that said, Josh Cohen presents a solid case for optimism, here. I’m not suggesting the Magic or fantasy managers give up on Suggs, especially in keeper formats, but maybe temper your expectations for his rookie season. He’s unlikely to be in the race for Rookie of the Year barring injury. Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Jalen Green, and Josh Giddey all look more NBA-ready at this very early stage in their careers.

Larry Nance Jr. - F, Portland Trail Blazers

This fall is all about minutes. Larry Nance Jr is just not getting them. Nance is averaging just 18.1 mpg this season. If that were to remain the case for the full season, it would be lower than the 20.1 mpg he averaged his rookie year. This doesn’t make much sense to me, but clearly new head coach Chauncy Billups isn’t yet sold on Nance’s impact. Until he carves out more of a place in the rotation, you shouldn’t expect much from Nance.

There is some reason for hope, however. I’m not a betting man, but I’d bet Nance gets more opportunities as the season goes along. Unless something has drastically gone off the rails, Nance is better than Nasir Little and you’d have to expect Billups to figure that out before the season is all said and done.

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