Fantasy Basketball Risers, Rookies and Draft Sleepers (Southeast Division) - LaMelo Ball, Dejounte Murray, Paolo Banchero, Kristaps Porzingis, Bam Adebayo

October 4, 2022

Antonio's fantasy basketball draft sleepers, risers, targets, avoids and NBA rookies for the Southeast Division. Depth chart analysis for the 2022-23 season.

The regular season is inching closer by the day, and most offseason moves have already been completed – barring a surprising Russell Westbrook trade, or the pending Jae Crowder deal when/if Phoenix finds a proper partner before tip-off day. Each team's depth chart is mostly complete, so it makes sense to start analyzing how it could work come October. Before diving into the fantasy season, RotoBaller has you covered with some last-minute basketball depth chart recaps for each team, including some useful bits of analysis for players you want to keep on your radar.

The charts below are based on career usage rates while the rosters have been updated to reflect these off-season moves. The charts don't include players drafted this summer, although they are factored into the depth charts; in other words, you'll find some charts "missing" a player at a certain position/role in the charts below, as we don't have data about them regarding usage percentage in the NBA yet but we can already predict where they'll slot in their franchise's rotation. That being said, comments will be made on rookies when deemed necessary in each team breakdown.

Here are the current preseason depth charts for the Eastern Conference Southeast Division.

Atlanta Hawks - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Atlanta has gone all-in this offseason by trading for Dejounte Murray and bolstering its good-not-great starting unit. Whether this addition works or not is yet to be seen with Trae Young already meaning the backfield and commanding tons of shots, but we residents of the fantasy world shouldn't see a large negative impact – if at all – in either of the two guards.

This is now a top-heavy franchise with two clear early draft targets in Trae and Dejounte. If you prefer three-point goodies at the expense of massive turnovers, then Young is your man. If you prefer rebounds at the expense of scoring, then Dejounte should be your target. In any case, you're assured to land a baseline of 20-4-8-1 by any of the two barring some weird and unexpected rotation/usage pattern.

The next tier of production is comprised of two starters and one bench player: Capela and Collins in the paint, Bogdan Bogdanovic in the backcourt. The former two are the big-man version of the Trae/Dejounte pairing. Nothing to discover when it comes to these two. Capela will give you monster boards without much scoring upside (still a double-double average over the season, mind you) while Collins has a higher ceiling as he can explode for triples and put up higher scoring numbers (15-7 with 35% 3P% on 3+ 3PA).

After that, it's slim pickings. Okongwu and Frank Kaminsky are not the worst role players and had the higher per-minute outcomes of all Hawks at 1.00 and 1.09 FP/min respectively last year, but they played 20 MPG. They won't get usage rates above 16/17 percent, so that cuts their upside down a lot.

Miami Heat - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

One thing in the chart above is not like the others. That thing, just in case, goes by the name of Chris Silva starting at PF. That should change before the start of the regular season, let alone the postseason if Miami wants to get a shot at the chip next summer. But there aren't many free-agent PF available so don't throw darts like a madman betting on a future singing.

That said, nothing else has changed in Miami – and even the loss of P.J. Tucker isn't that bad in fantasy terms considering his profile never was very good to earn you fantasy points. Butler is the honcho and will keep racking up fantasy points no matter what because someone has to carry this team.

Kyle Lowry, on the other hand, could be washed and a potential curse-in-disguise. I don't trust him going forward even though his 2021 season wasn't a cratering one. Don't risk it with him.

Bam Adebayo missed a lot of time (56 G to Butler's 57, mind you) but he still put up a 19-10-3-1 season. Of course, he didn't make the top-50 OVR because of all of those missed games. In fact, no Heat player finished above that top-50 OVR position although three of them (Bam, Butler, and Tyler Herro) finished between the 50th and 60th-best players last season.

Who the starting SG will be is still up in the air. Herro, Victor Oladipo, and even Duncan Robinson are in contention. The latter was atrocious on a per-minute basis (0.74 FP/min compared to the 0.90 league average) while Herro and Dipo did the same (1.06 and 1.05). Oladipo, of course, did it in just eight games, and the injuries weight too heavily on Dipo for me to feel safe about drafting him.

If you need three-point shooters and makers, Miami is your team. Five players shot 40%+ from beyond the arc with four of those attempting at least 2.5 3PA per game. The FTA per game stunk, though, with Butler and Bam the only two players going to the line more than three times per game (8.0 and 6.1 FTA).

Washington Wizards - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: Johnny Davis (SG/SF)

I felt the need of adding Davis in the line above mentioning impact rookies in this roster just because of his draft position. I said that because he is coming off a set of stinky outings in the Summer League. Of course, it's the freaking Summer League, but still. He's going straight to the bench and that makes sense because Bradley Beal is going nowhere (literally, after getting a no-trade clause), and the addition/presence of Will Barton and Kyle Kuzma will block his path to a larger role until he proves his worth off the pine.

Washington has flipped defense (KCP traded to Denver) for some firepower in Barton. I like Barton a lot but he needs a lot of minutes to stay a viable fantasy player as he's nothing more than an average per-minute performer in most fantasy leagues.

This team will for the first time feature Beal and Kristaps Porzingis together on a basketball court after injuries didn't allow for that to happen last season. We'll have to wait to see how that goes after it didn't work wonders for the KP-Luka pairing in Dallas, to say the least.

Porzingis, though, is a per-minute machine with one of the highest efficiency marks in the league: 1.31 FP/min with a 20-8-2 (and 1.5+ BPG) per game line last season on just 29 MPG between Dallas and Washington. Of course, he couldn't stay on the court for more than 51 days so he finished at a measly top-85 OVR in the full fantasy leaderboard.

Monte Morris is a shooting machine with ridiculous percentages (48/39/87 splits on 10+ FGA, 4+ 3PA, and 1+ FTA last year) and Kuzma is better than you think and cheaper than you'd believe (17-8-3 per game shooting 45/34/71). No need to waste a pick in any of Washington's centers.

Charlotte Hornets - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: Mark Williams (C)

The Hornets aren't hard to grasp when it comes to fantasy basketball. LaMelo Ball is your no. 1 guy (watch out for the sky-high TOPG and the bad shooting, though), Terry Rozier is the value-play, and Gordon Hayward is the flier to take and the boom/bust play. The Hornets are getting into the 2023 season without Miles Bridges and that will definitely hurt their overall winning chances, but other than that, there is no more news around these parts.

Of course, Bridges finished last year as a top-15 player overall and top-5 forward-eligible player. That's now gone, and a platoon of Hayward/Washington/Oubre should be the fix employed by Charlotte. Bad news: none of them was more than a mediocre/average-ish player last year on a per-minute basis and the three posted eerily similar stat lines.

Washington is perhaps the most complete of the three, although on a lower level overall (10-5-2-1-1). Hayward is a better shooter than Oubre, but Hayward works on lower-volume shooting so that helps his averages. Other than that, Oubre and Hayward finished the year with 15-4-1-1 and 16-4-3-1 lines so the difference isn't staggering. Oubre made up for the difference with half the turnovers of Hayward, 0.9 to 1.7).

The most interesting storyline to follow here are the big men and the rotation inside the paint. Mason Plumlee is the obvious day-one starter but he's quite bad for a center in the context of the NBA. Alas, the presence/impact of rookie Mark Williams might be larger than expected. He can defend (good for earning MPG) and on the floor, he's a menacing shot-block machine. He should benefit from having LaMelo throwing him passes for easy buckets. Keep an eye on Williams, he might turn into a great last-round fantasy draft pick or a friendly WW target down the road.

Orlando Magic - Fantasy Basketball Depth Charts

Impact Rookies: Paolo Banchero (PF/C)

No need to introduce you to Paolo Banchero. He's a beast and just a little glimpse of his game this past July in the Summer League was enough to tell you everything about him. He is the new no. 1 player of the Magic, and all it took him was...well, no games at all and just a bunch of hype.

Banchero joins an overloaded frontcourt in Orlando that features Mo Bamba (re-signed for some reason), Jonathan Isaac (returning after two seasons), and Wendel Carter Jr. (acquired via trade and locked into the starting C position).

None of the aforementioned players is still 25 years old so all of them will get touches so Orlando can keep studying and seeing who they are and who should remain for the long term. Pass on all of them and if you want some shares only draft Carter Jr. and his 15-10 upside (we'll see how that changes with Banchero in the rotation, though).

Something similar happens in the backcourt: Fultz, Anthony, Suggs, Harris, and even a combination of Ross/Hampton will get minutes with most of those still young guys, and the veterans (Harris and Ross) most probably getting traded at some point. I love Fultz as a reclamation project and under-the-radar asset to target. He posted a ridiculous 1.21 (elite) FP/min last year on 20 MPG over 18 games when he returned from injury.

This is a make-or-break year for Jalen Suggs in his second season as a pro after a very disappointing rookie campaign. I would let him marinate for the 2023 season and reassess his talents next summer.

The wings are thin, though, with Eurobasket legend Franz Wagner pretty much the only viable player the Magic can use in that role. He can score with gusto, offers PPG, RPG, and APG, and comes with some SPG upside while he will cut down his TOPG (1.5 last year) thanks to the loaded backcourt being available from the get-go and the presence of Banchero.

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