RADIO
It is easy to lose track of the Minnesota Twins. Playing up north, away from either coast, amidst a pedestrian AL Central division, the Twins have flown under the radar in many circles coming into 2024. However, as with so many things, the betting world has been keeping a close eye on this team. Multiple betting outlets project the Twins to eclipse 85 wins and along with it bring home an AL Central title.
Of course, the handicappers have great reason for these projections. Pablo Lopez profiles as a true ace on which the team can rely for quality starts and wins. Joe Ryan is a fantastic SP2 that perhaps would be the SP1 on many teams. Although the last two spots in the rotation leave something to be desired, the Twins could do far worse than Bailey Ober as SP3 in their rotation. With Griffin Jax emerging as a strong bullpen option and Jhoan Duran returning to form, the Twins have a highly competitive pitching staff and bullpen.
But pitching can only account for so much, and with Royce Lewis going down early with an injury, concern arose that the Twins hitting would be their demise. In regards to fantasy output especially, Edouard Julien has been incredibly streaky and at times caught in a platoon. Luckily, the rise of Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro has provided a spark, and both of these guys are now appropriately owned in >50% of fantasy leagues. Carlos Correa, not what he once was, also finds himself on >50% of rosters. But beyond this list and the aforementioned Lewis, which fill-in Twins are worth a cup of coffee on fantasy rosters? Which guys are likely to see playing time suffer when Lewis and/or Byron Buxton return? Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) examines some of the recent output from the less-rostered Twins mashers to highlight those worth a pickup and those best left on the waiver wire.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Candidates
For one reason or another, these hitters have the potential to be season-long contributors for fantasy baseball managers. Managers with an open roster spot should pick them up for an audition, particularly in deep leagues.
Max Kepler (OF) - 25% Owned
Coming off a 36-HR season in 2019, Kepler was a darling of many fantasy baseball draft boards. Managers jumped at the opportunity to draft an OF2 (or OF3) capable of approaching 40 HRs. Unfortunately, an injury-laden 2020 led to nine home runs, and since then Kepler has not eclipsed 25 HRs in a season.
However, in 2023, Kepler posted his highest total since that magical 2019 season, logging 24 HRs across a healthy 2023. Managers in deeper leagues have been aware of Kepler since the start of 2024, but his performance so far and clear playing time amidst the depleted Twins squad have rekindled interest in more standard, shallow leagues. Hopefully his recent pop is a sign that 2024 will be more like 2019 than 2020.
MAX KEPLER SOLO SHOT #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/8ClkSNccUD
— Jack (@PrimeLewis23) May 4, 2024
Kepler has quite a few things going on under the hood that make him a solid add at DH in shallow leagues, and as an OF3 in deeper leagues. He is showing a respectable 40.8% hard-hit%. While the names around him are quite diverse, it is worth pointing out that many stars are sitting in this hard-hit% neighborhood, such as Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, and Paul Goldschmidt, to name a few.
With this above-average hard contact, Kepler has also shown solid plate discipline. He is sporting a strong 15.2% K%, backed by an impressive 20.3% CSW%. He also holds an average 10.5% BB%. With a path to playing time, an above-average rate of hard contact, and HR upside, Kepler is worth a flier in 12-team or larger leagues, and for any manager looking for a relatively high-floor OF audition.
Trevor Larnach (OF) - 3% Owned
One could argue that some of the names in the section below are "better" than Larnach. That may be true at present, but evaluating any player who is <10% owned requires a focus on "under the hood" stats. Players like Alex Kirilloff are more likely to be owned, but Kirilloff feels like more of a known commodity with a lower ceiling.
Name recognition plays a role in ownership, without a doubt. Part of the fun in evaluating a player like Larnach is that his stats are heavily impacted by "noise," or volatility due to a small sample size. As an example of somewhat contradictory statistics, Larnach is simultaneously hitting the cover off the ball but also getting "lucky" on the balls he puts into play.
He holds an eye-popping 54.5% hard-hit%, good for a top-20 ranking across MLB for those with 40 AB or more. He is sandwiched between Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser in that stat. Most of his hits this year have been line drives or spicy ground balls, and perhaps new rules limiting the shift have benefited Larnach, who is a pull-hitting lefty. A representative hit for Larnach is found in the GIF below. Hard, useful, and most commonly a slap single.
TREVOR LARNACH GO AHEAD RBI SINGLE #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/E5eIPZfjIr
— Jack (@PrimeLewis23) May 1, 2024
On the other hand, he holds an inflated .452 BABIP, which is invariably headed for a downturn, no matter how small the current sample size is. Furthermore, he currently sports a 20.8% K%, significantly lower than his 32.8% career mark.
Is it possible Larnach has tweaked his approach, developed significantly improved plate discipline, and has improved? Possible, yes. Likely, it is unclear. There will be some regression with the average and likely strikeouts, but with the way Larnach is hitting the cover off the ball, his potential upside (and thereby volatility) seems higher than Santana, Kirilloff, or any of the others below.
Keep an eye on Larnach, and add him if regular playing time continues and home runs start to come. A slight shift in launch angle could produce an entirely new home run hitter in Larnach.
Fantasy Baseball Players Better Left on the Waiver Wire
In deep leagues, these guys might fill a niche, but managers in most leagues can keep an eye on these guys from the waiver wire or ignore them altogether for fantasy purposes.
Alex Kirilloff (1B/OF) - 8% Owned
Due to his position in the top three of the batting order whenever he plays, Kiriloff has amassed a balance of 14 R and 10 RBI to start the 2024 season. At times, he has batted leadoff, contributing to those run numbers. At other times, he has batted third with ample opportunity for RBI.
This, coupled with dual-position eligibility, will always draw eyes from fantasy managers. But a major concern is Kirilloff continuing to act in a platoon, generally sitting against LHP. This has not changed with the recent injuries, including riding the pine against a pedestrian opponent in Brennan Bernardino.
Kirilloff holds an uninspiring 7.8% BB%, suggesting limited plate discipline for a guy occupying the first spot in the lineup at times. He compliments this with a mediocre 22.3% K% in 2024. He has two career SBs, further limiting his leadoff hitter upside.
His .239 AVG, .435 SLG, and 43.7% hard-hit% do not provide much to assuage managers concerns that he can make up for these shortcomings with power. Unfortunately, Kirilloff profiles as an average player at best, and time in good positions in the Twins lineup cannot fix underlying mediocrity, at least for fantasy purposes. Managers in AL-only and very deep leagues might consider Kirilloff, but the upside is just not there to consider using a roster spot in shallower, standard leagues.
Carlos Santana (1B) - 7% Owned
Ah, Carlos Santana. Managers who sort their free-agent pool by HR total are well-versed in the internal struggle of considering Santana for a roster spot. It is so tempting to add a hitter who can still put up 20+ HRs. This might be especially tempting for managers in points leagues who may find it a little more palatable to swallow his .200 batting average; managers in categories-based leagues with AVG or OBP are not so lucky.
So far this year, Santana is profiling as the hitter he has been for the last half-decade (or more). He has put up four home runs in 30 games played, tracking for a 20+ HR total on the year. His playing time is encouraging, perhaps buoyed by the injuries that are an impetus for this very article. He is batting .189 with a .200 BABIP, suggesting he will bat around his typical .200 on the year if all things stay similar.
Santana is consistent and does not show any signs of "falling off the cliff" this year, even at age 38. Managers in 12+ team leagues, particularly those chasing HRs specifically, should consider Santana for an add while his path to playing time is relatively open.
He will not be a league winner, but can provide some useful HRs. Beyond the specific pursuit of HRs, it is hard to justify rostering a player who will tank the AVG category, provide no SB, and may cede some playing time when the Twins are fully healthy again.
Jose Miranda (3B) - 2% Owned
Miranda draws a bit of excitement at first blush, as he has seen himself at the two, three, and four positions in the Twins' batting order recently. On the other hand, despite clear playing time needs in the organization, he is still seeing a platoon in playing time at 3B with Castro getting starts at the hot corner.
His minor league career-high-water mark for home runs was 17 in 2021, and he has never accrued more than four SBs in a given year at any level. His current BABIP of .314 sits above his career .291 mark, suggesting he is getting a bit "lucky". A platooning infielder with minimal power and speed upside can safely be left unowned in all but the deepest leagues.
Austin Martin (OF) - 1% Owned
Like Margot below, Martin may see the occasional start in CF with Buxton on the shelf. However, having bounced back and forth from the minors to the majors, Martin does not seem like a favorite for a long-term starting gig, even with Buxton out. Furthermore, some combination of the guys listed above him in this article makes for a stronger lineup, with Martin providing a spell for these guys occasionally. Just based on playing time (or lack thereof) and better available names, Martin can be avoided.
Manuel Margot (OF) - 0% Owned
Margot gets a mention here as he has seen a couple of starts in the outfield when Castro is manning the hot corner and Miranda finds himself on the bench. He is mostly in this article for completeness, so managers know who to look at when some of the other guys mentioned here miss out on plate appearances.
It is a bit surprising to say this so definitively at 29 years of age, but Margot's best years are already behind him. Even during his peak, he typically averaged single-digit home run and stolen base totals. He is unlikely to flip the script and can safely be left on the waiver wire.
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