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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 8 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before making exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers
Lux is part of a small number of players benefiting from injuries, mainly due to additional playing time. A glance through the boxscore reveals Lux was moved up the batting order to the fifth or sixth spot. And why not? Lux has been raking as of late, which is exactly why we need to pounce on him now. Over the last two weeks, Lux has racked up 10 RBI with two long balls.
Part of the reason for his recent offensive outburst is the dropoff in strikeouts. Lux is trading off three-strike counts for more batted balls in play. The season is still very young, so let's break it down by months. In April, Lux carried a 30 wRC+ due to going 10-for-61 and striking out 31% of the time. So far in May, he is crushing the ball. Since May 1, Lux is a 144 wRC+ player with only a 14% strikeout rate.
Lux is white-hot, the power is showing, and the strikeouts are fleeting. It's time to strike before he puts up another two weeks of great output, and trading for Lux will cost twice as much. Move him for an all-or-nothing power bat on your roster. They are a dime a dozen, it seems.
Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays
Adames is a total bargain bin trade target. Currently, he is hitting below .200, only has 1 SB, and striking out over 30% of the time. Now, this move takes a total leap of faith, but luckily it won't cost you much. I'll start by getting the ugly part out of the way: Adames strikes out. A LOT! Yes, that will hurt the batting average and crush OBPs, but there could be something great coming.
Keep in mind that Adames is only 25 years old. So development is on the horizon, and strikeouts could settle down quickly if he makes adjustments. However, the main reason for considering Adames is the future power potential. Take a quick look at Adames' hard-hit rates from 2018 until now('18-29.1%, '19-35.6%, '20-40.5%, '21-44.4%). Now look at his barrel rates in that timeframe('18-6.6%, '19-8.4%, '20-9.9%, '21-14.8%).
For now, Adames only has five HRs. However, I am here to say there is a ton of power potential coming for that bat. Shortstop is so deep these days that there is a fair chance another manager could part with Adames for practically nothing. So it's time to poke around for Adames, and even if he sits on your bench for a time, there is going to be a big power stint coming for him.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Happ, much like Lux, had an awful start to 2021. Similarly, there is a big change in offensive production since the calendar moved to May(.357/.379/.786 with 1.165 OPS). Adjusting to live pitching? Cold weather? Slow starters? Whatever the case may be, the time to make a move for Happ is now.
Sure, it's a small 29 plate appearances sample in May, but some Statcast metrics back up the recent success. For instance, Happ has a 53.1% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate. It's kind of interesting that Happ has above league average barrel% and hitting over 50% of his batted balls at 95-mph or better. May is looking more like his luck is evening out after some awful luck in April.
Any five OF leagues or OBP leagues will give Happ a significant boost in value. In Yahoo leagues, Happ is eligible at 2B, SS, and OF. Boy, with all these injuries piling up, a player with some pop and starting to heat up could be a massive value on your roster. The icing is that you should be able to get him at a discount price.
Trade Targets to Move
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox
The Bobby Dalbec rollercoaster is a ride we need to get off of. If you're in a daily moves league, I can understand why you might want to get back in line for another go-around, but for the weekly leagues, Dalbec will make you sick.
Let's start with the obvious. The power is legit. He touts a 16.9% barrel rate with the 82nd percentile in max exit velocity(111.5 MPH). However, the robust power stroke comes with a massive amount of swing-and-miss in the approach. His strikeout rate is well over league-average at 33.3%, which causes the batting average to plummet. Furthermore, Dalbec is only useful against LHP. His batting average is nearly 200 points higher against southpaws and vs. RHP, the OPS submarines to .474-yikes!
Dalbec shows a lot of promise and power. Unfortunately, you'll be holding onto a player that is borderline unplayable in two-thirds of his games. Move Dalbec to a team that is lacking power for a player with more balance in the game.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
If you started him on Tuesday(5/18), you picked up 75% of his HRs in one day. The Twins' masher has been so difficult to watch outside of power, and Statcast backs up the struggles. The .167 xBA validates his grotesque .165 batting average. Unlike years past, Sano has always had a gigantic xwOBAcon(.496 career xwOBAcon). However, currently, Sano is under .370, and the strikeouts remain. It almost feels like we are playing the HR lottery with Sano and have to get lucky enough to play him in the correct game.
Try and move him to that fish in your league that only watches the HR highlight reels each night. The recent hot night boosted his last seven-day stretch to 6/19 with four HRs and seven RBI. This is the terrific time to move him during the hot streak and never look back.
Josh Fuentes, Colorado Rockies
While Fuentes showcased a decent stat line(16 R, 4 HR, 24 RBI, and .254 AVG), the Statcast numbers suggest that he is a total slug. Outside of his 69th percentile in sprint speed, the batted ball quality leaves a ton to be desired. He sits in the bottom 10th percentile in the following categories: barrel%, xwOBA, hard-hit%, and chase rate. Obviously, this leads you to wonder why you're even rostering him. But hey, he isn't injured and holds the Rockies roster tag next to his name so that people will notice him.
Moving Fuentes is a short-term move to acquire a player with healthier matchups for the upcoming week. Like I mentioned in the opening, in-season moves can resemble the stock market, and if you rostered anyone from Colorado, you'd know why. The home/road splits are immense for some of these players and Fuentes is no different. At home, Fuentes is slashing .300/.324/.529 with all four HRs in Coors Field. On the road, Fuentes is hitting a meager .196/.196/.250 with an 11:0 K/BB rate.
Send Fuentes to another team in your league ASAP. He doesn't get another at-bat in Coors Fields until June. The next two series are in Citi Field(NYM) and PNC Park(PIT), both well-known pitchers parks. Furthermore, Fuentes is likely going on a very rough stretch for the next 10 days, and we want to package him with another player far more useful.
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