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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 13of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
With about 40% of the season under our belts, teams and players are starting to take form. Expected stats are beginning to stabilize, and we can better understand a player's growth.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Anthony DeSclafani, San Francisco Giants
As of today, Anthony DeSclafani is rostered in a little over 80% of leagues. One of the main reasons for that is because he has been healthy all season. Another reason, DeSclafani has been dealing. When we gloss over the season stats, quite a big jump out. His 87.2 innings pitched is the 17th most among all active starting pitchers. Also, the 2.77 ERA is the 18th best, trailing right behind names Trevor Bauer, Tyler Glasnow, and Yu Darvish. That is an impressive company for a player that was drafted outside the top 300 draft picks.
Just wait; it gets even better. Outside of a ten-earned run blip against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 28th, DeSclafani has not surrendered more than three earned runs in any start. In fact, he has tossed 27 innings pitched in his last four starts while allowing only three earned runs. Additionally, his 22.7 K-BB% is nearly six points higher than his season total. On top of mowing down offenses, could we also get an increase in strikeouts? The time to act is now.
The pitching landscape has become exceedingly shallow. No doubt, injuries have likely ravaged your team. The surface stats are very tidy, and except for the strikeouts, DeSclafani looks very useful to any manager. Furthermore, it will help if you made a fair offer for a player like this. He doesn't have the big-name recognition, so toss a hot young bat or two into the trade offer and see if the other manager takes it.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Texas Rangers
At this point in the fantasy season, it is time to start focusing on team needs. One of the most complicated stats to find is stolen bases. This is where we insert Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or as I will refer to, IKF. Coming into 2020 had never stolen more than eight bases in a single season. But wait! That eight stolen base season was last year when he only got to play in 58 games. Fast forward until now, and IKF has racked up 15 SBs through his first 74 games-impressive.
So this begs the question, can he continue to steal bases for the rest of the season? I will start by asking another question, has IKF slowed down? The answer is no. In the previous two weeks, IKF has swiped four bags. The production is there, and he doesn't appear to be stopping. While he may only tout the 71st percentile in sprint speed, he has only been caught stealing one time.
Because the SB category is hard to find, the IKF manager might not find it keen to deal with him. You might have to part with a decent piece of your team to make this one go through. However, if you need to make up ground in this department, IKF is likely at top tier producing for the rest of the season.
C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
Suppose you're a manager chasing power and trying not to trade too much for it. Making a move for C.J. Cron is the play for you. First, let's start with the obvious that he plays in Coors Field. Now that we have got the snowstorms and cold weather out of the way, the HRs and scoring will skyrocket. Also, Cron had been battling the injury bug, something many seasoned fantasy veterans know about Cron. However, at the moment, Cron is looking healthy and swinging a powerful bat.
In the last two weeks, Cron is slashing .341/.426/.756 with a 1.182 OPS. Even more impressive, in that timeframe, Cron is barreling the ball at nearly a 17% rate with half of his batted balls struck at 95-mph or harder. On top of making terrific contact, his O-Swing% is down to 36%, and the Z-Contact% is 82.3%. So, let me get this straight; chasing fewer pitches, making more contact, and hitting the ball hard very often?
This is the time to make a move for Cron. He is already showcasing an above-average hit tool with his .271 batting average, and we might get a surplus of power as well. He could be a league-winner if he can stay on the field.
Trade Targets to Move
Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals
Earlier I mentioned trading could resemble the stock market. The best time to move stock, or player in this instance, is at the peak; or when they are most valuable. That way, you get the most return on your investment. That is precisely why any fantasy manager needs to act on Kyle Schwarber.
In the last two weeks of baseball, Schwarber has clubbed ten HRs and 19 RBI. For reference, that is three more HRs and four more RBI than any other player in baseball. Now, it doesn't take a RotoBaller writer to tell you that isn't a sustainable pace. Feast your eyes on the graph below. It should give an excellent indication of how incredible the sudden outburst of power has been for Schwarber's season.
Now, I am not here to rain on the Kyle Schwarber manager's parade. But, instead, say it's a perfect time to make trade offers out there. His 52.6% HR/FB rate is absurd; that is, over half of the time he hits a flyball, it is going over the fence? No chance of sustaining!
HRs are among the easier stats to replace in fantasy baseball. I would suggest making it very known your team is looking for a specific need and dangle Schwarber's 19 HR total in front of everyone. There is a sporting chance someone will bite. Trade your Kyle Schwarber for their Anthony DeSclafani? I could get down to that boogie!
Adam Frazier, Pittsburgh Pirates
Frazier is another white-hot player at the plate. Well, sort of. His .324 batting average remains extremely rare when you compare him to the league-wide batting averages. However, outside of the batting average, the rest of his portfolio is rather hollow.
Let's start by examining Frazier's power, or lack thereof. Throughout his six-year career, Frazier has never hit more than ten HRs in a single year. This year is no different as he has only parked three balls into the bleachers. If we forecasted Frazier for 700 plate appearances, he would still only hit around seven total HRs. Unfortunately, that will kill you in the HR category and likely the counting stats as well. However, on the flip side, his four SBs make him a bit more intriguing. Although will the Pirates allow Frazier to keep running since he has been caught four times already?
We could go back and forth on whether Frazier is a valuable fantasy asset or a better real-life player. It would probably make for a fun debate. But Frazier is rostered in 76% of Yahoo leagues, and if he is sitting in your lineup, you need to move him for a player that is 100% fantasy relevant. My suggestion would be to target another team that lacks speed or batting average and pull the trigger for one of their power bats. Trade your Adam Frazier for their C.J. Cron? Yes, please!
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