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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 101of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before making the same assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Gonsolin is currently on 65% of Yahoo rosters, which means plenty of fantasy managers stashed him away. That means that all eyes from those managers were on his last start. You know, the 1.2 innings pitched with five walks that led to a 5.40 ERA. The rust was apparent, and the Dodgers handled him with kid gloves to preserve him later. Why is this terrific news for us?
First, the hard work is already done for Gonsolin managers. They rostered him for over 25% of the season and they took the early shaky start on the chin. Perfect! We want them to feel the sting of this last start and hope the recency bias factor makes them want to get anything for him. Even better, he should come at a discount for our trade.
Now, why Gonsolin of all pitchers? Well, last year, Tony showed he doesn't have an incredible arsenal of pitches, he just has elite-level talent. In 2020, the splitter and slider carried a whiff% well over 40%, and the changeup hovers at 38%. Even more, those pitches plus the 95-mph fastball all had a wRC+ under 100. Those pitches added to his tiny 4% walk rate gave batters nightmares at the plate. That ability didn't just go away. It just needs some fine-tuning. The unfortunate part is we won't exactly know when that is.
Finding these types of skills from a SP on the waiver wire is highly unlikely, especially from a pitcher on a winning team. Let's consider this a low point in Gonsolin's season and hope his current manager thinks of him as a SP4 or SP5 rather than a SP3. He doesn't get another start until Monday (6/14), so that should give you plenty of time to set the foundation for the trade. If Gonsolin shoves against the Phillies, the price will soar. Start the trade talks by offering players of need to the opposing manager. Do your best to steer it to power since that is the most replaceable category on the waiver wire.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
In 231 at-bats, LeMahieu carries a .251/.330/.320 slash line with only three HRs and two SBs. That is an abysmal showing for a player of his abilities. Now, he is not your typical batter, which had served him well in New York thus far. He has exceptional plate discipline (7.3% K-BB%) and an above-average hit tool (.302 career BA).
Additionally, he has never been a massive power guy (4.2% career barrel%). Furthermore, the 55% GB rate is nearly identical to the career marks, and the spray charts are right on par. Honestly, it's a head-scratcher.
That is exactly why we are targeting LeMahieu as a trade target! The underlying numbers match up way too closely for his production to be so far off. Even the expected stats suggest a bit of positive regression, as shown by the .272 xBA being nearly 20 points higher than his .251 BA. Likewise, his .320 SLG% is backed up by a .385 xSLG%.
Maybe the cold weather hindered his production? Perhaps the New York Yankees team struggles played a part? Either way, the time to pounce on LeMaheiu is now! We want to be on the side of positive regression for players like this, especially when they are the leadoff hitter to the potent New York Yankees lineup with a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Don't get cute with the trade offers. He can massively help your team's BA and swat 20-ish HRs while also swiping a handful of bases. I suggest even going pretty aggressive for a player like LeMaheiu and offering up quality SP, but only something you can part with.
Jose Cisnero, Detroit Tigers
All season, the Detroit bullpen has been a revolving door at closer. However, there is a pitcher I have had my eye on since before Opening Day. Jose Cisnero is that player, and for a bevy of reasons. First, he harnesses the stuff to be an everyday closer. The fastball sits a smidge below 97-mph while having plus movement horizontally and vertically vs. other MLB fastballs at similar speeds. The horizontal movement (ride of the pitch) is 19% better than all fastballs. Additionally, the secondary offerings are an 88-mph slider with, again, plus horizontal movement and a "drop-in" changeup thrown to steal strikes vs. LHP only.
The three-pitch mix has worked nicely for Cisnero. Through 25 innings pitched of relief work, the Tigers' RP sports a 3.86 ERA with a 35:9 K/BB-rate. Now, stuff and stats aside, Cisnero finally gets his shot to be the full-time closer. Since assuming the closer duties, Cisnero is a perfect two-for-two. The tricky part of acquiring Cisnero is he is only available in 6% of leagues on Yahoo. So if someone snatched him up, it's likely because they need saves too.
I suggest prying away a RP like this. You need to attach him in a more significant deal and use him as a filler piece. Rarely would I recommend a two-for-one trade with you giving up the one, but for a closer that can grab the job and run for a few weeks, I would do it. By now, there are usually well-established names underperforming on a team. That is your target player to move.
Trade Targets to Move
Eric Haase, Detroit Tigers
Catcher is a sinkhole of a position. So finding a usable one with everyday ABs is worth quite a bit in the trade market. This is precisely why we are looking to move Haase for better pieces. First, Haase is on a white-hot heater at the plate. The Detroit backstop has eight HRs in his last 73 ABs, a 55 HR pace if he managed to get 500 ABs. Pretty unreal for a player that has spent over a decade in the Minor Leagues.
Haase has shown some power potential in his MiLB time. He showcases three straight 20-plus HR seasons and decent ISOs to go with them. However, he also indicates a massive K% all through the Minor Leagues as well. That trend has continued into the MLB (34.2% K-rate). Furthermore, his 42% FB/HR rates are absurdly unsustainable, and when you pair that with a 72% zone contact rate, it's challenging to see this production continue.
Somehow he has managed to hit enough HRs to stay relevant and pile up counting stats to look like an excellent waiver wire acquisition. If I were lucky enough to snatch him up before another manager, I would be offering him as trade bait every day until I moved him. He is even more valuable in two-catcher leagues, so start trying to move him ASAP!
Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
Speaking of a position that can be very valuable: closers! The unicorn stat known as saves is one that everyone finds themselves struggling to pile up. I was stunned to see Bard is rostered in 43% of Yahoo leagues, but eight saves will likely do that to you. The question that should plague us is his value, and could we move him for a more helpful piece?
So, let's start with the prominent part. Coors Field is his home park, and there is no place in MLB we would rather have a closer in high leverage situations. Bard has done a fine job racking up eight saves, but also blown three chances as well. Some of those struggles have caused the team to dip their toe in the water and try other RP options. For now, Bard still has the role and closed out two clean innings this week.
If you desperately need saves, I understand your worry about moving a closer. However, keep in mind that plenty of save opportunities will come off the waiver wire. Bard is a suspect closer in a lousy ballpark on a team that doesn't win games very often. Use his high 30.7% K-rate as an additional bargaining chip as well.
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