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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
Grandal was much more productive last season in leagues where on-base percentage was part of the scoring. The veteran hit .240 with a .420 on-base percentage, 23 home runs, a .419 xwOBA, and a career-high 13.3% barrel rate in 375 plate appearances.
This season, he hasn’t been quite as productive. His season-long numbers show a significant drop-off in quality of contact. After logging a .403 wOBA and a .413 xwOBA last season, Grandal is down to .276 and .295 respectively in both categories this season.
That’s certainly showed itself in his overall production as his BABIP has dropped just two points from last season, but his batting average has plummeted nearly .040 points. And while his numbers have certainly dropped across the board, some of that has to be attributed to a slow start in which the veteran hit .163 with a .271 on-base percentage, a pair of home runs, and a stolen base in 170 plate appearances through the end of May.
There were some relatively encouraging metrics during that span that pointed to potential positive regression, namely a .200 BABIP, a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and a 7.1% barrel rate. Still, it was an unideal start to the season for the White Sox stalwart.
Lately, however, Grandal has been much better at the plate and producing much more like the player who was so effective at the dish last season. In 84 plate appearances since August 10, Grandal is batting .243 with a .357 on-base percentage, three home runs, and a double.
He’s not producing like the player he was last season, but he has a chance to be a top-10 fantasy catcher for the rest of the season, especially in on-base percentage leagues.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
The 23-year-old has spent some time in the bullpen this season, but he’s logged 136.2 overall innings in 28 appearances for the Astros. Of those 28 appearances, 23 have been starts for Dusty Baker’s club.
And despite the time spent in a relief role, which had more to do with Houston’s notable rotation depth, Javier could be a fantasy difference maker down the stretch, potentially a league winner for fantasy managers.
It’s simply hard to understate how good Cristian Javier has been for the Houston Astros this season. The 2.77 ERA and 3.34 FIP will certainly, and rightfully, draw headlines, but it’s Javier’s ability to miss bats that makes him such an impact player, both in real life and in fantasy baseball.
The 25-year-old has struck out 11.79 batters so far. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings of work, only Spencer Strider, Shohei Ohtani, and Carlos Rodon have a higher rate. That's pretty good company.
Javier’s strikeout total is perhaps even more impressive. The Astros starter has 179 punch-outs in his 136.2 innings of work. Only 14 pitchers, full stop, have more strikeouts. Of those 14, eight have thrown at least 170 innings. Strider is the only pitcher of the 14 with fewer than 140 innings pitched.
The elite bat-missing ability is in part due to the right-hander’s slider, which is sporting a 40.7% whiff rate. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 sliders, that’s the 13th-best whiff rate in the league.
Of course, it’s not all the slider. Javier’s curveball and changeup are both sporting whiff rates north of 30% and his four-seam fastball currently has a 26.6% whiff rate, not to mention a -16 run value.
And this is all without mentioning Javier’s home and road splits. Of course, for a pitcher with his ability and effectiveness, his metrics at Minute Maid Park and away from it are rather good, but his home ERA (2.45) is nearly half a run lower than his road ERA.
If Houston’s rotation continues as is and uninterrupted for the remainder of the regular season, Javier should get two more starts, one against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and one against the Philadelphia Phillies. Both will be at home.
Arizona has the league’s lowest on-base percentage in September, while the Phillies entered Wednesday having lost five in a row and being outscored 39-21 in the process.
Elvis Andrus, Chicago White Sox
Let’s look at some blind resumes from this season.
Player A: 386 PA, .237 average, .301 OBP, 8 HR, 7 SB
Player B: 131 PA, .317 average, .359 OBP, 6 HR, 8 SB
Player A and Player B are actually the same player. As you might have guessed, it’s Elvis Andrus. Player A is Andrus’ numbers in an Oakland A’s uniform this year. Player B is his numbers after making the switch to Chicago to join the White Sox.
Since joining the American League Central franchise, the veteran has become a potential impact addition for fantasy managers down the stretch, especially as of late with his ability to contribute homers and steals.
The infielder was already hitting for more power earlier in the year with Oakland — his eight home runs with the A’s was more than he hit in 2021 and 2020 combined — but he’s logging a significantly improved barrel rate since donning a White Sox jersey.
Andrus has a 6.7% barrel rate with Chicago, which checks in higher than any barrel rate he’s logged in a previous season dating back to the 2015 campaign. Because of that, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s hit more home runs this month (five) than he did all last season (three) when he logged 541 plate appearances for Oakland.
The power is certainly good, and useful for fantasy managers in search of late-season reinforcements, but it’s Andrus’ recent stolen base tally that has him positioned as a potential fantasy difference maker in the season’s closing weeks. The veteran had one stolen base in his first 19 games for the White Sox. Then the calendar turned to September 9 and Andrus started stealing bases with regularity.
Andrus has seven stolen bases in his last 10 games – not to mention a pair of home runs, three doubles, and a .364 average in 48 plate appearances. Since playing his first game for the White Sox on August 19, Andrus has the same number of steals as three separate teams (the Padres, Reds, and Giants) and more stolen bases than three more (the A’s, Twins, and Tigers).
In fact, entering play Wednesday, the former A’s infielder had at least a stolen base in four straight games.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Profar has done plenty right for fantasy managers this season. He’s logging an 11.6% walk rate, is eligible at first base, second base, and in the outfield in Yahoo leagues, and has collected 14 home runs, five stolen bases, and 75 runs scored in 603 plate appearances for the Padres. He’s also striking out just 15.3% of the time, which certainly doesn’t hurt. He’s also improved his both barrel rate and his hard-hit rate from last season.
While those are all certainly positives, Profar is still managing just a 4.1% barrel rate and a 34.3% hard-hit rate. Those metrics rank in the 13th and 19th percentiles respectively. His ability to make contact at an above-average rate – the veteran ranks in the 81st percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate – has helped cover up for the lack of hard contact from a production standpoint, but it's not an ideal recipe for success.
It's especially not an ideal recipe for success when he’s struggling at the plate. Dating back to August 17, Profar is batting just .186 with a .276 on-base percentage and two home runs. There’s also the fact that the 32-year-old isn’t attempting, or actually stealing bases, as much since the early portion of the season.
Four of Profar’s five stolen bases came before the end of May and he has just one stolen base and one caught stealing attempt since. That’s a bit emblematic of the Padres, a team with more stolen bases than just two other franchises this season. In the season’s second half, San Diego is tied with Cincinnati for the fewest steals in the league.
Either way, with Profar struggling and little in the way of hard contact or stolen bases, it’s hard to trust him as a regular starter in most standard-sized fantasy leagues for the rest of the season, despite some quality full-season metrics.
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Simply put, it might be hard to trust the All-Star closer for consistent saves down the stretch. The former Pirate has been solid for New York since returning from the injured list, logging a 3.86 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, and 13 strikeouts in 11 appearances spanning 11.2 innings. He’s also surrendered 10 hits, seven runs, five earned runs, four walks, and a home run during that time frame.
And while Holmes does have three saves in those 11 outings, he’s also given up four of those five earned runs in his last five appearances, along with all four walks and the home run.
Elsewhere, in the last two weeks, New York’s bullpen has converted three saves. Holmes has one of them. Wandy Peralta has another. Lucas Luetge has a third. To make matters more complicated, there may be even more competition for saves moving forward.
According to a tweet from The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner on Wednesday, Scott Effross will reportedly be activated from the injured list on Thursday. Effross already has a save for the Yankees since being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline and has pitched to a 2.75 ERA and a 2.39 FIP in 52.1 total innings of work this season.
Holmes is by no means someone to drop to the waiver wire, but he might not be as reliable of a source of saves as he was in the earlier summer months.
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