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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
So far so good for Gausman in his first season in Toronto.
The 31-year-old is thriving with the Blue Jays, logging a 3.12 ERA, 170 strikeouts, and an 11-9 record in 147 innings. He’s made 26 starts so far.
Gausman’s split-finger offering has once again been excellent. Being thrown 35.6% of the time, the out pitch has generated a 44.5% whiff rate and a -13 run value this season. Opposing batters have managed to hit just .186 with a .167 xBA, a .221 wOBA, and a .191 xwOBA against the pitch.
And while his fastball has gotten hit a bit more this year than it did last year, it’s hard to understate just how good Gausman has been and how much better his numbers should be.
The chasm between his ERA (3.12) and FIP (2.17) is obviously one thing, but Gausman remarkably ranks in the top 10 in the league among qualified starters in terms of the highest strikeouts per nine innings rate and the highest BABIP. Shohei Ohtani is the only other starter to do that this season.
And while Ohtani’s .298 BABIP checks in at 10th, Gausman’s .368 number leads the league. in fact, the next-closest qualified starter in terms of BABIP is Jordan Lyles all the way at .323.
The Blue Jays ace should be an elite fantasy option down the stretch, even with a seemingly tough remaining schedule. The right-hander is set to face the Texas Rangers in an upcoming start, but outside of Texas and a two-game set in Philadelphia, the Blue Jays will play all division opponents the rest of the way.
That’d be a tough task for most hurlers in the American League East, but not for Gausman. He’s thrown 69.2 innings against American League East clubs this year and is sporting a 2.58 ERA and a 1.46 FIP against Baltimore, New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay. He also has registered a 32% strikeout rate and a 2.5% walk rate against those same clubs this season.
Tyler O’Neil, St. Louis Cardinals
O’Neil hasn’t quite been the elite fantasy performer he was last season when he hit .286 with a .352 on-base percentage, 34 home runs, and 15 stolen bases in 537 plate appearances. He isn’t collecting barrels at quite the same rate either after registering a 17.9% barrel rate last year. His hard-hit rate is down too from its 52.2% metric in 2021.
Still, the outfielder has turned in some quality numbers this year, both in terms of fantasy and underlying metrics.
O’Neil entered play Wednesday hitting .228 with a .301 on-base percentage in 355 plate appearances overall this season. The average and on-base percentage are clearly down, but he’s still managed to once again reach double digits in home runs (13) and stolen bases (11).
Elsewhere, the 27-year-old is still logging a respectable 11.5%-barrel rate and a 42.7% hard-hit rate. The barrel rate sits in the 80th percentile league-wide while the hard-hit rate ranks in the 66th percentile.
And this is all without mentioning his recent run of form, which has been much more reminiscent of his 2021 stats.
In 92 plate appearances since August 14, the outfielder is hitting .256 with a .348 on-base percentage, a 15.2% barrel rate, and a 47.0% hard-hit rate. He’s also registered seven home runs and three stolen bases in that span.
His overall numbers have dipped a bit this year, but he looks to be back to producing like an impact player for the stretch run.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
Cobb appeared in this column earlier in the season in the “Undervalued” section due to an ERA that didn’t quite tell the entire picture. The veteran logged a 6.25 ERA in his first 31.2 innings but also had a 2.75 FIP. And while his ERA has gone down in the months since – it’s at 3.58 currently – it’s still a bit high for how well the right-hander has been pitching.
Entering play Wednesday, his FIP is still south of 3.00 at 2.84, and he’s continued to clamp down on barrels and walks.
After a career year in 2021, during which he registered a career-low 4.2% barrel rate and just an 8.4% walk rate, Cobb has cut down both numbers considerably this season. This barrel rate has dropped to 3.9% and his 6.9% walk rate is percentage points off his previous career low (6.5%) for a full season.
The ability to limit quality contact and limit walks has certainly helped at Oracle Park, which has the fourth-lowest park factor for home runs in the last three seasons, per Statcast. Oracle Park is also a place where Cobb owns a 2.57 ERA in 70 innings this season.
After his Wednesday start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, both of Cobb’s next scheduled outings are at home. They’re by no means easy matchups, with Atlanta and the same Dodgers, but they are home starts all the same for the right-hander. If the Giants' rotation continues for the rest of the year at the same schedule, it’s possible Cobb will get another home start in against Colorado in the season’s final weeks, giving him three of his last five outings to close 2022 at Oracle Park.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros
If you’ve had Jose Urquidy on your fantasy roster to this point, you’ve probably benefited greatly from the 27-year-old’s production so far.
The right-hander has logged a 3.51 ERA in 146 innings spanning 25 starts this season. Only Kyle Wright, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and Houston teammates Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez have more wins among starters than Urquidy’s 13 so far.
So those things have certainly helped fantasy managers so far. So too has the Houston’s starter’s ability to limit walks. His minuscule 5.3% walk rate sits in the 87th percentile league-wide as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.
However, Urquidy also isn’t missing too many bats. His strikeouts per nine innings rate has dropped to 7.21 from 7.57 last season and his swinging strike rate is currently 10.2% after finishing at 11.8% in 2021. That change no doubt has to do with batters making more contact with both his slider and changeup. After both pitches logged whiff rates of 33% or better last season, the two pitches are currently sporting whiff rates south of 30%. What’s more, the veteran has utilized his pitches in a noticeably different manner this season.
His changeup has taken over as his second-most used offering after his four-seam fastball, and his slider’s usage rate has dropped nearly seven points from last year’s 19.5% metric to this year’s 12.0% number. And that’s all without mentioning a cutter that Urquidy has unveiled this year and thrown 5.5% of the time.
In short, he’s missing fewer bats. And while he’s found success with surface-level numbers like his ERA, his 4.34 FIP tells a more accurate story. Part of that also has to do with the fact that batters are making much more hard contact against Urquidy.
Opponents have turned in a 41.4% hard-hit rate and a 9.2% barrel rate against the right-hander, with a .254 xBA and a .325 xwOBA. All four metrics rank in the 29th percentile or lower. The hard-hit rate in general is particularly unideal after it finished at just 35.9% last season. For reference, that was in the 70th percentile in 2021. Lower strikeout totals and increased hard contact metrics certainly aren’t a pathway to success.
All told, the 27-year-old’s last six starts have been somewhat emblematic of his season so far. He’s won four of them and has a 2.56 FIP in those six starts, totaling 38.2 innings. He’s also given up one or no runs in three of those six starts.
However, Urquidy is also sporting a 4.15 FIP in those six outings and has twice given up two or more home runs while striking out five or fewer batters. He’s by no means someone to cut as we approach the end of the season, but it’s worth noting that for his strong starts, he may struggle at times as well.
John Schreiber, Boston Red Sox
Schreiber’s placement in the “Overvalued” portion of this column has little to do with how well he’s pitched this season. In fact, it has nothing to do with that.
The 28-year-old has worked to a 2.11 ERA with a FIP (2.19) that isn’t too far off. He’s also struck out 64 batters while giving up just 13 walks in 55.1 innings in what has been a breakout season for the former Tiger.
No, the reliever being in the “Overvalued” portion of the column has more to do with the team around him. Boston’s play has been up-and-down as of late. They recently won five games in a row from August 31 to September 4, however, that winning streak was bookended by two three-game losing streaks.
Prior to that stretch, the Red Sox won five of eight from August 11 through August 17 and then proceeded to lose six of nine games.
Admittedly, the team has the fourth-most saves in the league since the trade deadline with nine. That’s good. What’s not as good is that Schreiber only has four of them. Garrett Whitlock has three and former Boston closer Matt Barnes has a pair.
Saves are obviously crucial in fantasy, but it’s hard to count on Schreiber for consistent saves down the stretch given how inconsistent Boston’s play has been as well as the team’s bullpen construction.
Speaking of bullpen construction, there’s also the fact that Schreiber is clearly Boston’s most-trusted high-leverage reliever. He has 11 high-leverage appearances dating back to the trade deadline, the most on the team. No other reliever has more than eight. While that’s certainly good news if Boston runs into a high-leverage spot in the ninth inning, it also opens the door to more potential missed save opportunities if the right-hander is needed earlier in the game.
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