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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox
Verdugo is walking at the lowest rate he ever has in the Majors (6.4%), which certainly isn’t the best. He’s also striking out at the lowest rate of his career (10.2%). Entering play on Wednesday, just four qualified batters (Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Alejandro Kirk) had a lower strikeout rate than the former Dodgers outfielder.
As you might guess, with fewer walks and strikeouts, Verdugo’s expected batting average is quite good. In fact, at .304 it’s elite. This isn’t too surprising to see a hitter like Verdugo log this type of xBA. It’s nothing new for the outfielder, though it hasn’t always been this good.
Alex Verdugo Since 2019:
- 2019: 377 PA, .294 average, .289 xBA
- 2020: 221 PA, .308 average, .238 xBA
- 2021: 605 PA, .289 average, .285 xBA
- 2022: 309 PA, .264 average, .304 xBA
The decidedly low, at least by Verdugo’s standards, batting average is a little surprising, especially considering the 26-year-old’s batted ball numbers are more or less the same as they were last year. Sure, he’s hitting fly balls at a slightly higher pace, but his ground ball rate is also down a bit. At the end of the day, none of the statistical changes are drastic. Certainly nothing drastic enough to draw any significant conclusions from, other than that he’s making similar contact to last season.
Alex Verdugo In 2021: 50.3 GB%, 21.0 FB%, 24.3 LD%, 4.4 PU%, 43.3% Hard-Hit Rate
Alex Verdugo In 2022: 49.2 GB%, 22.3 FB%, 24.2 LD%, 4.2 PU%, 41.2% Hard-Hit Rate
Sometimes the xBA and actual batting average just don’t line up and aren’t close at all, no matter how good of a contact hitter the batter is. There’s every reason to believe that Verdugo’s average should creep up closer to his xBA. It’s easy to point to a lower BABIP and say that’s at the root of down production, but when a hitter like Verdugo is more or less doing what he did in 2021 from a batted ball standpoint with a batting average .025 points lower and a BABIP .051 points lower, the BABIP probably has something do with it.
The positive regression – Verdugo is hitting .321 since June began – is happening as we speak, and it’s probably going to continue as well at this rate. Trade for Verdugo now before his batting average continues to climb so your team can benefit from one of baseball’s better contact hitters.
Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays
Long hailed for his ability as a hitter in the minors as a prospect, Kirk is putting it all together at the Major League level this season in what has been a breakout campaign. The 23-year-old is hitting .314 with a .403 on-base percentage and 10 home runs in 263 plate appearances. Crucially, he’s walking more than he’s striking out, with a solid 11.8% walk rate and a stellar 9.5% strikeout rate.
So why is he in the undervalued section of this column? Because he might be even better than his already excellent numbers would suggest.
Like with Verdugo, the high contact rate is in part leading to better expected numbers, but Kirk has been elite from a making contact standpoint, with a 99th percentile ranking in strikeout and a 73rd percentile ranking in chase rate. It’s also hard to ignore Kirk’s other advanced metrics, particularly the quality of contact and power-related numbers.
Alejandro Kirk in 2022:
- .425 xwOBA, 99th percentile
- .592 xSLG, 95th percentile
- 3% Hard-Hit Rate, 76th percentile
- 3% Barrel Rate, 67th percentile
It also doesn’t hurt that the backstop has vaulted his way up into the heart of the Toronto order. In his first 40 games, Kirk hit above the sixth spot in the lineup just five times, and two of those five appearances came as a pinch hitter. However, since June 12, the catcher has hit fourth in all but one game that he’s started. With George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at the top of the lineup in Toronto, Kirk might have the most ideal situation from an RBI opportunity standpoint of any cleanup hitter in the league.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Paul Sewald, Seattle Mariners
Sewald could potentially be starting to separate himself as Seattle’s closer with five saves in the last month. That’ll certainly help his trade value for fantasy managers looking to move the veteran, but this is also the same Seattle bullpen that featured three different relievers who logged double-digit saves in Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, and Kendall Graveman. Rafael Montero and Kenyan Middleton also combined for 11 saves that season.
It's the same Seattle bullpen that, despite all four of the aforementioned relievers not being on the 40-man roster, has still seen Diego Castillo siphon off four saves to Sewald’s nine saves this season. There’s also Ken Giles, who recently returned from the injured list. Andres Munoz, who has a save of his own this year, is still in the bullpen mix as well. Munoz owns a 20.1% swinging strike percentage this season, second among qualified relievers this season only to New York’s Edwin Diaz.
In short, Sewald should be firmly entrenched in the saves mix in Seattle. He might even lead the team in saves. But given how Scott Seravis’ bullpen operates, some or all of Castillo, Giles, and Munoz are going to get saves as well, which impacts Sewald’s fantasy ceiling.
I’d try trading him in a multi-player deal where you get an upgrade at another position while also getting another source of saves.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
This is purely a redraft scenario. Kopech is absolutely someone you should hang on to in dynasty or keeper leagues, but in redraft leagues, it might be time to explore a deal for the right-hander. Of course, keeping the 26-year-old on your roster is a perfectly fine strategy. He’s logged a 3.34 ERA and a 4.38 FIP in 15 starts spanning 72.2 innings, and while he’s only logged 8.42 strikeouts per nine innings, he certainly has the stuff to miss more bats.
However, the FIP is slightly concerning as is a recent stretch where Kopech has allowed 23 hits, 16 earned runs, seven home runs, and 11 walks in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. In those four starts, he only struck out 17 batters. It might just be a rough stretch for Kopech, but if you can move him while his ERA is still rather good, now might be the time. He’s not going to struggle this much moving forward, but the recent starts haven’t been ideal.
Another factor working against Kopech’s fantasy potential is that the White Sox simply haven’t provided the type of wins – and pitcher wins – that many assumed that they would. Tony La Russa’s team entered play Wednesday with a 39-41 record. What’s more, 17 different teams had registered more pitcher wins than Chicago, a team with just two starters (Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito) with more than two victories this season.
Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies
Bryant has been limited by injury this season but is hitting .293 with a .350 on-base percentage in 103 plate appearances. He also has a quite lengthy track record at the Major League level, with at least 25 home runs in five of his last six full seasons. In those six full seasons, the only time he hit below .275 was in 2021 when he batted .265 in a campaign split between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants.
On one hand, those factors make him potentially undervalued. However, on the other hand, he’s logged just three barrels on 77 batted balls this season, good for a 3.9% barrel rate. His .386 xSLG is also on track to be the lowest it’s been in a full season than at any point in his career. Bryant’s barrel rate has never finished below 9.0% in a full season. His xSLG has finished north of .435 every season of his career.
In other words, it might be time to see if there’s a potential trade fit out there. Given that Bryant is eligible at first base, third base, and in the outfield in Yahoo leagues, you shouldn’t have a hard time finding a manager with a need at one of those positions.
Because of Coors Field and the veteran’s career track record as a hitter, a hellacious hot streak is a definite possibility at some point, so if you’re trading him make sure you’re getting a marquee player in return. However, if you can get a potentially better fit or player for your team with slightly less name value, now might be the time to make a trade.
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