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Corbin looks at five fantasy baseball deep-league hitters earning more playing time due to injuries in 2024. Can these hitters sustain their success or is it a fluke?
Waiver-wire pickups and setting lineups can make or break fantasy baseball leagues. For instance, we might have a veteran player with historically above-average skills, but they're struggling to begin the season.
Do we drop that player for another player that we don't believe in as much or lack the track record that might be performing well? There's a delicate balance of showing patience and being aggressive because we likely can't wait to see more of a sample.
Other players usually benefit on their respective teams when a player suffers an injury. We want to chase the playing time, but it doesn't automatically translate into production. We have five hitters Dan Palyo labeled "Super Subs." As a data-focused person, we'll examine their skills and profile to figure out whether they can sustain their success. What should we expect moving forward?
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Tyler Freeman, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Cleveland Guardians
40% rostered
Tyler Freeman played regularly before Steven Kwan's hamstring injury toward the bottom third of the Guardians lineup. However, a week after Kwan's injury, Freeman moved to the leadoff spot on May 12. The Guardians have a type of hitter they like, involving ones that make tons of contact, and Freeman fits that mold. Freeman makes elite levels of zone contact at 91.5 percent, over five percentage points above the league average.
That should help give him a solid floor in batting average with a better xBA (.254) than his actual (.216) in his career. The contact rates have been doing the heavy lifting because he lacks the power skills to touch average levels. On a positive note, Freeman has been hitting the ball harder in 2024 with career-best barrel rates and exit velocity numbers.
We're seeing Freeman pull the ball to tap into the pull-side power, with a 52.8 percent pull rate. The pull-side data aligns, evidenced by Freeman rocking a career-high average exit velocity on pulled fly balls and line drives at 96.4 mph, around two points above the past two seasons.
With four of his seven barrels coming on pulled fly balls and line drives, it looks like a concerted effort to tap into more power in 2024. That's a potential skill to latch onto in the first two months.
Freeman has the athleticism to play center field and steal bases. However, he hadn't shown a massive stolen base ceiling in the minor leagues, with a peak season of 10 in 2023 at Triple-A, in levels above High-A. What makes up for Freeman's mixed bag of stolen bases and speed involves the massive jump in stolen-base opportunities. Freeman's stolen-base chances jumped to 26 percent, 10 percentage points above his career average. The volume potential gives Freeman a chance at 18-20 stolen bases or more with a season of playing time.
Summary
Freeman's profile looks like a compiler, meaning he needs volume to amass fantasy value. Thankfully, he has been receiving regular playing time to begin 2024, with the significant factor involving him moving up to the leadoff spot without Kwan. Freeman has shown purposeful skill changes in the pull rate and contact quality while maintaining elite plate discipline. He provides the floor with plate discipline and some upside via the high stolen-base chances and slight power uptick, indicating we should buy into a potential breakout season for him even when Kwan returns.
Edmundo Sosa, 3B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies
23% rostered
With Trea Turner sidelined, we've seen Edmundo Sosa's playing time increase as the primary shortstop for the Phillies. In May, Sosa has two home runs, 16 runs, 11 RBI, and two stolen bases with a .304 batting average. The production has been fueled by his .413 BABIP and hitting line drives 29.8 percent of the time.
Interestingly, Sosa's 6.5 percent barrel rate per plate appearance in May would be a career best. The season-long power metrics look similar, supporting the potential skill gains. That would give Sosa below-average to above-average power, which would bode well for his aggressive approach.
Sosa typically uses an aggressive approach with chase, zone swing, and swing rates about 7-10 percentage points above the league averages. It's worth noting Sosa is swinging two percentage points below his career average at 53.9 percent. Unsurprisingly, Sosa struggles to make contact, with a 67.5 percent overall contact rate, over eight points below the league average. Thankfully, Sosa swings a ton in the zone while making league-average zone contact (84.2 percent). That profile can play well with above-average power, as Sosa has displayed in 2024.
Summary
He has the speed and athleticism to maintain his fantasy value via stolen bases. Sosa plays decent defense to help him stay on the field, though it's hard to find room for him in the lineup once Turner returns. We can't rely on the luck factors continuing for him. However, the two potential skill gains to buy into include the power skill gains and slightly more patience via the swing rate. Turner expects to return on June 15, so continue streaming Sosa in deep leagues since the production and playing time seem relatively secure. Once Turner returns, Sosa will likely become a bench bat for the Phillies.
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers
5% rostered
Welcome back to an old friend in Jake Bauers, who teased us in the past but struggled to succeed and garner playing time. With Rhys Hoskins suffering a hamstring injury, Bauers has been playing as a strong-side platoon at first base. Before the injury to Hoskins, he played a mixture of outfield and first base with sporadic playing time.
The plate discipline for Bauers is concerning, as he struggles to make contact. He shows a patient approach, with a chase rate of 24.4 percent, being seven percentage points below the league average. We've seen this profile before where a hitter is patient yet struggles to make contact in the zone, about five points under the league norm.
If that's the case, we want a hitter to destroy the ball. Thankfully, that's where Bauers succeeds, involving a high-end barrel rate per plate appearance at 6.5 percent. He uses a pull-heavy, fly-ball approach, which typically lends itself to a weaker batting average. That aligns with Bauers and his lower batting averages.
Though Bauers barrels up the ball, his average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranks middle of the pack at 92.5 mph (No. 186). However, his EV50, or the average of the hardest 50 percent of his batted balls, gives us more confidence in his legitimate power skills. Bauers ranks 76th with a 101.3 mph EV50 near Max Muncy, Ian Happ, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Alec Bohm in 2024.
Summary
The stolen-base opportunities look like the wild card, as Bauers rocks a 29 percent stolen-base opportunity rate in 2024. That's almost three times higher than his career average of 10 percent. Interestingly, Bauers doesn't have average speed, though he has been converting a career-best rate (85 percent) of his stolen-base chances. Most of the profile looks the same for Bauers, with a slight uptick in power skills and stolen-base chances boosting his earned value. Hoskins projects to return in early June, and Bauers might lose playing time when that time comes. He could move into the outfield, but his plate discipline issues can cause him to have significant highs and lows.
Mauricio Dubon, 2B/OF, Houston Astros
5% rostered
With Jake Meyers crushing and the Astros hitters returning to the lineup and healthy, Dubon looks like he's losing playing time. After three weeks of averaging 15 plate appearances, he logged 14 in the past two weeks. That concerns us since Dubon needs the opportunity to compile fantasy value.
The skills Dubon has look similar to the past seasons, with high chase rates and tons of zone contact. However, it's worth noting that Dubon boasts a career-high zone contact rate (92.5 percent) and chase rates (48.3 percent). With Dubon's strong hit tool, he can be aggressive while making elite levels of contact.
Unfortunately, he lacks the power to translate the contact into anything productive. His 2.5 percent barrel rate per plate appearance is nearly half the league average. Dubon sprays the ball all over the field and doesn't pull the ball, so we can't expect any pull-side power gains.
Summary
Like Tyler Freeman, Dubon rocks the plate discipline to keep his floor high, evidenced by his .290 xBA. Dubon's skills remain steady with the hit tool and plate discipline carrying the profile, but he doesn't have the stolen-base chances to boost his value. As a compiler, he is losing playing time with the lineup healthy, so Dubon is droppable in most formats for another streaming hitter.
Dylan Moore, 2B/SS/OF, Seattle Mariners
49% rostered
From a real-life perspective, Moore is valuable for the Mariners, as he plays multiple positions with some skills. Due to injuries to J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco at different points in the season, Moore earned regular playing time. It helps that Moore plays multiple positions, giving him additional real-life flexibility. Moore has given us fantasy production in spurts, but the playing time remained the main issue.
Moore is flashing the best contact rates of his career, with an 89 percent zone contact rate. That's seven percentage points above his career average, showing a potential skill gain. As a fly-ball hitter (54 percent), Moore has been pulling the ball more often over the past two seasons, around 48-50 percent of the time.
He flashed above-average power skills in the past in the small season-long samples. Moore has above-average barrel rates in 2024 at 5.4 percent, but it's not close to the peak season in 2023, with 9.1 percent barrels per plate appearance. That aligns with the slight dip in results and barrel rates on pulled fly balls and line drives.
Moore still hits the ball hard with a high barrel rate on pulled fly balls and line drives, but the outcomes haven't been at sky-high levels. Since Moore still possesses above-average power, it might regress over time. We drooled over Moore's skills because of the power and speed, given his athleticism. When paired with the massive stolen-base opportunities, evidenced by his career rate of 39 percent, we can see the 20/20 potential.
Summary
Moore moved up to the two hole with Julio Rodriguez struggling and some lineup shifts based on injuries. That could bode well for Moore's production, especially considering his power and speed skills look legitimate with more zone contact. It's one game, but Moore moved down to ninth on May 30, with Josh Rojas jumping into the two hole. Hold and stream Moore confidently in 12-15 team leagues, with potential viability in shallower formats based on skills and positional flexibility.
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