X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Stat Outliers for Week 14 - Course Corrections Coming?

jordan montgomery fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Jon Anderson identifies outlier data points for fantasy baseball Week 14. He analyzes statistical outliers, and predicts future improvers and decliners in performance.

Welcome back to RotoBaller! I'm Jon Anderson, and today we are back for the second edition of the OUTLIERS series. Every week (or so), we will be looking into the season-long and recent data to identify outlier data points. We will then dive into the numbers and talk about why those numbers are outliers, and what that means we should expect moving forward.

This will be helpful for fantasy purposes in identifying what player performances are unsustainable, on the negative or positive side of the coin. Baseball is such a random game that we constantly see box score outputs that just don't really make any sense given the underlying inputs. We will identify a handful of these every week, which should help us decide on what players to buy or sell.

It will also just be a general fun time learning more about the stats and indicators, what they mean, and how to interpret them. This is my bread and butter, so I'm ready to start spreading it. Let's do the thing!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Outlier: Christian Bethancourt's wOBA

This guy has recently been in the news as the Rays made a trade for him, grabbing him from Oakland. I think the Rays may have seen what we're about to talk about with Bethancourt, and that is that he's been one of the least fortunate hitters in the league this year.

Bethancourt has posted a really strong 14% barrel rate this year in his 182 plate appearances. That comes with a strikeout rate that is right around the league average at 22.5%. The list of hitters with at least 150 PAs this year with a barrel rate above 12% and a strikeout rate below 23% is not a very long one. Those names along with their homer counts this year:

So you can see that Bethancourt's four-homer total just doesn't make a ton of sense (although most of that is explained by the fact that he only has 182 plate appearances while the league leaders are already nearing 400).

If we plot every hitter's xwOBA along with their wOBA, Bethancourt stands out as a negative outlier:


His wOBA for the year is .300 but he has a much better xwOBA of .382. Only three qualified hitters have a higher differential in this direction than that (Kyle Higashioka, Austin Meadows, and Sam Hilliard).

Bethancourt has 18 barrels this year, with only four of them going for homers, that's a HR/Barrel rate of 22% – which is well below the league average that sits in the mid-fifties. He lines up in the bottom five in that category, here's a sneak peek at my barrel performance leaderboard.

 

Playing half of your games in the Oakland Coliseum, you will naturally have some of this – that stadium has long been one of the tougher stadiums to hit a ball out of, so it's even better news that he has now escaped that park. If the Rays make Bethancourt an everyday player, the homers should be coming at a nice rate moving forward, and you can slide Bethancourt into your catcher slot on your fantasy roster, which is huge.

 

Outlier: Tony Gonsolin's WHIP

Fifteen qualified pitchers have WHIPs under one this year. Here are those names along with their K% and BB%.

Pitcher K% BB% WHIP
Tony Gonsolin 24% 6.9% 0.80
Shane McClanahan 36% 4.8% 0.81
Justin Verlander 24.6% 4.8% 0.87
Keegan Akin 21.6% 6.7% 0.87
Max Scherzer 32.7% 5.1% 0.88
Corbin Burnes 32.4% 6.3% 0.89
Sandy Alcantara 22.4% 6.3% 0.91
Aaron Nola 27.8% 3.5% 0.93
Joe Musgrove 25.5% 6.0% 0.93
Spencer Strider 39.1% 9.6% 0.97
Alek Manoah 22.7% 5.8% 0.98
Shohei Ohtani 24.4% 6.2% 0.99
Cristian Javier 34.1% 9.0% 0.99
Yu Darvish 22.4% 4.9% 0.99
Miles Mikolas 19.7% 5.2% 0.99

The key component of WHIP is K-BB%. There is a pretty linear relationship between these two statistics, and Gonsolin is nowhere near the trend line.

Among qualified pitchers, Gonsolin has the best WHIP, but just the 43rd best K-BB%. There is no way this guy can sustain a WHIP below 0.9, and I would be guessing that he posts a WHIP closer to 1.10 for the rest of the year. I would call Gonsolin a pretty darn good sell-high as we head towards the second half.

 

Outlier: Jordan Montgomery's Low K%

This is the reverse case from the Cristian Javier analysis last week when we saw that his K% really didn't match up with his CSW% and SwStr%.

In 2021, Montgomery posted a 13.7% SwStr% and that came with a 24.5% K%. Those two numbers make perfect sense together. This year, he has repeated that same exact 13.7% SwStr%, but somehow the strikeout rate has fallen to 19.6%. Here's the plot:

 

You can see he really stands out here, and has a pretty solid CSW% as well as that dot shows red. I am racking my brain for what other things might explain this, but I can't really come up with anything. I thought well maybe he's not really going for the strikeout when he has two strikes on a guy. He's just being content to try to spot a pitch on a corner and letting a ball be put in play. That isn't the case. Here's how he's attacked hitters in 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts this year:

Pitch Pitches Zone% SwStr%
Curveball 134 13.4% 23.9%
Changeup 82 26.8% 9.8%
Sinker 71 60.6% 14.1%
4-Seam Fastball 37 32.4% 8.1%
Cutter 10 30.0% 10.0%

So he has mostly thrown curveballs out of the zone in these counts, and his second most-used pitch is the changeup, which has also mostly been thrown out of the strike zone. This is a perfectly sensible way to attack when ahead in the count, so there's nothing really there to explain his low K% either.

I'm projecting Montgomery for a 23-25% K% moving forward, which makes him a decent buy right now.

 

Outlier: Dean Kremer's ERA

Orioles righty Dean Kremer has made seven starts this season and has given up runs in just three of them. Over his last five starts, he's given up just five earned runs, which all came in one start against the Rangers. He has a 1.62 ERA over his last six starts and a 2.15 mark for the year.

IP K% BB% ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
37.2 19.4% 7.7% 2.15 3.32 4.65 4.49

I don't think I need to do the heavy lifting here to prove that the 2.15 ERA on Kremer is just ridiculous. The guy is doing nothing well this year, and has an egregiously low 3.9% HR/FB rate (11.8% career) and has given up just two homers on the 11 barrels he's given up for an 18.2% HR/Brl. Only two pitchers (Kevin Gausman and Konnor Pilkington) have a lower rate than while giving up at least 10 barrels this season.

If you're reading this, I doubt you bought into Kremer in the first place, but if for some reason you did, it's not too late to repent and drop him. Bad times ahead for old Dean.

 

And that's it for the second edition of outliers! Thanks for being here!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Reynaldo López23 mins ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland26 mins ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia32 mins ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti42 mins ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL45 mins ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette52 mins ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus1 hour ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants1 hour ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears1 hour ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale1 hour ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida1 hour ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger1 hour ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks1 hour ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele2 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford2 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals2 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito2 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter2 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips2 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz2 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith2 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer2 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball2 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter2 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Willson Contreras2 hours ago

Taking First Day Off
Josh Giddey2 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton2 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant3 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal3 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II3 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young3 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser3 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud3 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien3 hours ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart3 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba3 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry3 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews3 hours ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown3 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault3 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.3 hours ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere3 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt3 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Again
Jonathan Aranda4 hours ago

Christopher Morel Sitting Against Pirates
Luke Schenn4 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jose Siri4 hours ago

Making Another Start In Center Field
Dante Fabbro4 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Brett Baty4 hours ago

Sitting Against A Right-Hander
Kyle Higashioka4 hours ago

Back In The Lineup, Jonah Heim Takes A Seat
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans6 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders6 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear7 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins7 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL7 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä7 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway7 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal7 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy7 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith7 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin7 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris7 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams7 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk7 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams8 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers8 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy8 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth9 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp9 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim10 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood10 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau10 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole10 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith14 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment14 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov14 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov14 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes14 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens23 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA23 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF