Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Arsenal Changes (Week 10): Pitch Mix, Velocity, and Movement

Welcome back RotoBallers to my weekly "Starting Pitcher Arsenal Changes" article series for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Today's article will discuss Max Fried, Ben Brown and Pablo Lopez. For those who are new to this column, each week we cover a few starting pitchers and their arsenal changes via pitch mix, velocity, and movement. We're at a point where the pitch movement, arsenal, and velocity should tell us a story with a handful of starts under their belts. With more injuries likely coming soon, we'll want to continue identifying streaming pitcher skills or struggling pitchers with underlying metrics suggesting better results coming soon.

After examining the changes for these starting pitchers in the early parts of the 2024 season, we'll summarize whether we should act or be patient with the data. We're two months into the season with a decent sample size of starts in 2024, and we'll compare the current and past information. This one is a bit beefier than usual and for a good reason.

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Max Fried's Slider is Dropping More

Injuries have impacted Fried over the past two seasons, but the results have been solid on a per-inning basis. Fried used four pitches over 10 percent of the time in 2024, including the four-seam (31.1 percent), curve (20.5 percent), sinker (16 percent), and changeup (14.1 percent) accounting for most of the arsenal. We noticed the slider is dropping more in Fried's most recent start, though he only throws it 7.2 percent of the time.

Fried often mixes up the arsenal, and it's worth noting the slider usage at 17 percent as his third-most thrown pitch against the Cubs. The slider generated a 38.9 percent swinging strike rate. His slider elicited seven whiffs in a game seven times, with the most recent outing being in 2022, not including the recent start in 2024. Throughout his career, his slider became one of his best pitches for whiffs, with a 15.1 percent swinging strike rate in 2024, about one percentage point above his career average of 14.2 percent. 

In Fried's most recent start against the Nationals on May 28, he mixed it up like usual and lowered the slider usage to 9 percent while only generating a low 8.7 percent swinging strike rate. It's been a trend where Fried is lowering his slider usage from 21.5 percent (2021) to 18.4 percent (2022), 6.4 percent (2023), and 7.2 percent (2024).

Fried's slider added over six inches of drop on the slider compared to 2023, turning it into a breaking ball that's in the near-elite vertical movement range. That aligns with the swinging strike rate gains since more vertical movement typically translates to more swings and misses. It could be fluky since he has been lowering the slider usage.

So, why is Fried's slider dropping more often? It seems partly due to the slider's spin rate increasing by nearly 200 revolutions per minute (RPM). His vertical and horizontal release points slightly shifted while adding more extension when he threw the slider. The hypothesis would be Fried releasing the slider closer to the plate and emphasizing front spin to make it drop the most since 2020.

Fried is Struggling with Control but Generating Ground Balls

In 2024, Fried's 37.4 percent ball rate sits almost two percentage points above his career average of 35.7 percent, and within a range that could deviate. That aligns with his higher walk rate, but his swinging strike rate (10.1 percent) hasn't increased to offset the control. In Fried's peak seasons, his ball rate finished around 34-35 percent, so maybe the past injuries led to Fried having control issues that might take time to regress.

Fried's 62 percent ground-ball rate is the highest of his career since his debut season (2017). The ground-ball rate is nine percentage points above his career average. That's mainly due to five pitches with a ground-ball rate of 60 percent or higher, and three of 62 percent and above. The most notable increases in ground-ball rate come via the curveball and slider. His curveball generates a ground-ball rate of 64.3 percent compared to a career average of 55 percent, and the slider skyrocketed by 18 percentage points (61.1 percent) from the career norm.

Summary

Ideally, the curveball and changeup swinging strike rates bounce back, assuming the ball rate regresses toward the career average. Fried's slider drops more and elicits more whiffs, a positive sign with the spin rates and extension supporting the added drop. It's early, but it would make sense for Fried to continue the uptick in slider usage closer to his peak seasons of 18-21 percent in 2020-2022. He possesses above-average skills while keeping the ratios low, though he may not have the ace-like strikeout upside. That's still a valuable SP2, with health being the main factor over the past two seasons. 

Ben Brown's Curveball is Nasty

In a recent start against the Braves, Brown's curveball had nine whiffs for a 32.1 percent swinging strike rate. Against the Brewers in his seven-inning outing with 10 strikeouts, Brown had 16 whiffs, 10 via the curve (31.3 percent SwK) and six from the four-seamer (9.8 percent SwK). That's close to his season-long swinging strike rate on the curve of 27 percent.

Typically, we don't find starting pitchers with curveballs leading their arsenals in swinging strike rate. Among pitchers with 200 curveballs thrown, Brown ranks first with a 27 percent swinging strike rate. That's five percentage points higher than the next pitcher's curveball swinging strike rate.

Some high-end starting pitchers show up among the curveball swinging strike rate leaders, including Nick Lodolo, Zac Gallen, Jack Flaherty, Ranger Suarez, and Yu Darvish, with other relievers and streamers on the list. The pitch mix feels like a reliever since Brown relies on the four-seam (62.3 percent) and curve (36.6 percent) to account for over 98 percent of his arsenal. Besides six changeups and two sweepers, Brown's arsenal raises questions on sustainability as a starter. That aligns with the Cubs deploying Brown as a reliever and a starter. 

The game-by-game pitch mix data shows Brown mixing it up based on when he pitches as a starter and reliever. He has gone five straight outings throwing only four-seamers and curveballs. Brown's curve is a deadly offering against right-handed hitters with a .139 wOBA and 30.1 percent swinging strike rate, with the same trend versus lefties. The curveball has a .172 wOBA and a 23 percent swinging strike rate against left-handed hitters. 

Brown's Brutal, Yet Intriguing Four-Seamer

The data points toward Brown being a one-pitch pitcher with the curveball dominating the arsenal. Unfortunately, his four-seamer struggles against both sides of the plate, with a worse xwOBA hinting at regression away from his favor. Interestingly, Brown's four-seam has a decent movement profile, with 16.4 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) and 8.8 inches of arm-side run.

Though the four-seamer moves well, the vertical approach angle of -5.3 degrees makes a steeper fastball, which we don't prefer. While Brown throws the four-seamer in the upper third of the zone 16.4 percent of the time, the results look scary, evidenced by a .372 wOBA and .572 xwOBA.

The results appear better, with a .333 wOBA and .428 xwOBA, when Brown throws the four-seamer in the heart of the zone 20.8 percent of the time. Brown's expected wOBA in the heart and shadow areas of the zone suggests the four-seamer continues to allow hard contact. Hitters seem to be waiting on the fastball and looking to attack the heater since the curveball misses bats at a high rate. If Brown locates the four-seamer more in the upper third, the movement and shape hint at better results if he fixes the location issues. 

Summary

Brown's xERA of 3.41 suggests some regression based on his actual results due to the low 4 percent home run rate (HR/F). The recent dominant outing against the Brewers (7.0 IP, Zero ER, Two BB, 10 K) makes us wonder if the Cubs will want him in the rotation more often because it's murky behind Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. Brown's past innings might be a concern with 104 in 2022 and over 92 in 2023 across multiple minor league levels. 

He showed decent control with a 34.4 percent ball rate. That's over four percentage points better than his ball rate in Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 at 39.2 percent. Brown possesses above-average skills, with the curveball boosting the overall swinging strike rate. Besides the HR/F, Brown's results look supported by the skills. Brown's recent outing smacked us in the face and managers will want to prioritize him where available for ratios, strikeouts, and potential wins.

There's still a slim chance he will shift into their closer role with some shaky skills from Hector Neris and Adbert Alzolay. I tend to lean more on the side of the starting pitcher upside, though he'll need to throw the four-seamer more in the upper third of the zone.

Pablo Lopez is Struggling

After two consecutive quality seasons, Pablo Lopez struggled in 2024, with a 5.25 ERA and 3.33 xERA. The expected ERA for Lopez hints at regression via his strand rate (59 percent), 10 points below his career average. Besides the luck factors, Lopez's skills look near-elite, with a 23 percent strikeout minus walk rate and 13 percent swinging strike rate.

After having three pitches with a 15 percent swinging strike rate in 2023, Lopez boasts two above 15 percent in 2024. The slider (14.6 percent) and curveball (16.5 percent) lead Lopez's arsenal in swinging strike rate in 2024, giving him two non-fastballs to attack hitters. The curveball has been effective against right-handed hitters (.276 wOBA) and lefties (.258). However, the lefty numbers against the sweeper regressed, evidenced by his .404 wOBA (2024) compared to .228 wOBA (2023). The same trend applied to right-handed hitters. That's evident in a .320 wOBA in 2024 and .199 wOBA in 2023 against righties.

Lopez's Curve and Sweeper Changes

Besides the luck factors on the breaking pitches, Lopez's curveball lost 2-3 inches of drop and glove-side sweep compared to 2023. Meanwhile, his sweeper lost one inch of drop while losing about 1.5 inches of sweeper. Though Lopez's curveball swinging strike rate maintained from last season, hitters have been chasing his sweeping slider about seven percentage points fewer in 2024. 

That's notable because the sweeper slider looks similar, but the curveball went from an above-average pitch in 2023 to below average in 2024 based on the movement profile. Lopez is throwing the curveball in the zone 33 percent of the time, aligning with the career average. However, he threw it five percentage points more in 2023 while eliciting chases outside the zone, which is a fruitful combination. 

The Changeup Isn't Dropping as Much

Lopez's changeup isn't dropping as much, aligning with the decline in the swinging strike rate. In 2021 and 2022, Lopez's changeup elicited a 17 percent swinging strike rate. However, it fell to 15.6 percent in 2023 and 11.2 percent in 2024. While the changeup possesses above-average arm-side fade, it hasn't been dropping as much compared to the peak seasons. 

Lopez saw his changeup go from an above-average to near-elite pitch to slightly above average in 2022 and 2023. We've seen a slight uptick in spin rate on the changeup, but not significant. The most notable change comes from the release point and extension on the changeup.

He increased his extension on the changeup by about 3-4 inches in 2023 and 2024 compared to 2021 and 2022. With his extension being closer to the plate, it makes sense to find his changeup not dropping as much, with a lower swinging strike rate. Lopez's horizontal release point moved closer to the midline of his body, indicating a more over-the-top approach compared to the peak seasons in 2021 and 2022. A slight adjustment in release points would impact the movement profile for a pitch, which we're observing for Lopez in 2024. 

Summary

Buy low on Lopez in all formats because the underlying metrics suggest better results will come soon. Unlike other pitchers, Lopez possesses skills worth targeting in trading leagues, with his xERA looking similar to 2023, and the skills aligning besides a slight downtick in swinging strike rate. Though the results haven't been there, trust the process of Lopez turning it around. 

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