RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly "Starting Pitcher Arsenal Changes" article series for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. Today's article will discuss Hunter Brown and Aaron Civale. For those new to this column, each week we cover a few starting pitchers and their arsenal changes via pitch mix, velocity, and movement. We're at a point where the pitch movement, arsenal, and velocity should tell us a story with several starts under their belts. With more injuries likely coming soon, we'll want to continue identifying streaming pitcher skills or struggling pitchers with underlying metrics suggesting better results coming soon.
After examining the changes for these starting pitchers in the early parts of the 2024 season, we'll summarize whether we should act or be patient with the data. We're over two months into the season with a decent sample size of starts in 2024, and we'll compare the current and past information. This one is a bit beefier than usual and for a good reason.
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Hunter Brown's Pitch Mix Changes
Brown lowered his four-seamer usage as the season progressed, most notably over the past month. He threw the four-seamer 45.3 percent of the time in April, down to 38.5 percent in May and 26.3 percent in June. The results against the four-seamer progressively declined, evidenced by a .246 wOBA (2022) to a .384 wOBA (2023) and a .428 wOBA (2024).
It's logical for Brown to lower his four-seamer usage since hitters destroy the heater on both sides of the plate. When a pitch isn't as effective, we should wonder why that's the case. Brown's four-seamer shape changed over the past few seasons, mainly losing arm-side movement. The four-seamer induced vertical break (IVB) sits in the average to slightly above-average range of 17.7 inches.
However, Brown's four-seamer lost nearly three inches of arm-side movement, likely making it a straighter fastball. Theoretically, hitters would square up the ball and make solid contact, with the four-seamer losing horizontal movement. That's partly explained by Brown's vertical release point rising about 1.5 inches, meaning a more over-the-top release.
Brown changing his vertical release point aligns with the loss of horizontal movement on the four-seam. Besides the four-seamer, Brown's movement profiles on his other pitches shifted, with the other notable change coming from the cutter.
Brown's Cutter is Changing Shape
Speaking of Brown's cutter, he increased the usage over the past four starts, throwing it 20.7 percent of the time compared to 13.3 percent in the previous 10 outings. Brown's cutter hasn't dropped as much, around four inches fewer. However, it's a positive change because it becomes more of an above-average pitch with the adjustment in cutter shape.
With the increased cutter usage, the results improved. That's evident by the .063 wOBA and 16.7 percent swinging strike rate since May 28 against Brown's cutter. Before May 28, Brown's cutter had brutal outcomes, with a .418 wOBA and 8 percent swinging strike rate. Though we noted the loss of drop for the cutter as a positive for Brown, the pitch added over four inches of downward movement, causing the results and whiff rates to rise.
Since Brown's slider possesses the same amount of horizontal movement, it appears like he uses the cutter as a harder-thrown slider that can elicit whiffs. We're diving into the weeds, but the reasoning for Brown's cutter adding more vertical movement involves his adjustment in the horizontal release. It looks like a 6-7 inch change in horizontal release point since May 28, causing the movement shift.
Like earlier with the vertical release point changes, Brown made a concerted effort to his delivery and releases. All of his pitches went from a horizontal release point closer to the midline of his body to a more three-quarters. That would contribute to the movement changes across his arsenal.
Adding the Sinker in May
In May, Brown added a sinker, mainly to use against same-handed hitters. The sinker has been one of his most-used pitches in May (28.2 percent) and June (33.8 percent), translating into a .227 wOBA on the season. Before using more cutters and adjusting the pitch shapes, Brown lacked a quality offering against right-handed hitters.
The sinker is effective because he throws it on the inside of the plate to right-handed hitters, leading to weaker contact. While the sinker doesn't possess an above-average movement profile, it runs into the inside plate to righties. It gives Brown a second pitch to pair with the cutter to generate weak contact via ground balls.
Brown's sinker induces a 65 percent ground-ball rate, with the newly dropping cutter allowing ground balls 77.4 percent of the time. That's helpful for a pitcher who allows a scary 20-21 HR/F over the past two seasons.
Summary
It's probably too late to buy Brown at a lower price, but fantasy managers should try since the other person might be attempting to sell at his peak. Brown made concerted mechanical changes, specifically with the horizontal release point, which led to his cutter dropping more over the past handful of starts. He added the sinker in May to attack right-handed hitters and generate weak contact. It's one thing to find changes in a pitcher's results, but finding the why makes it fun to examine players. Buy into the multiple changes by Brown because we're witnessing the positive outcomes lately.
Aaron Civale Added a Sweeper Against Right-Handed Hitters
Civale added a sweeper after throwing the cutter, sinker, and curveball for a combined 70 percent of the time against right-handed hitters. He lowered the cutter (20.1 percent) and curveball (12.6 percent) in favor of more sweepers (27.1 percent). It's a logical move since sweepers tend to fare well against same-handed hitters. That's evident in Civale's .282 wOBA allowed on the sweeper against righties, his best pitch. However, the sinker (.330 wOBA), cutter (.359 wOBA), and curve (.436 wOBA) haven't fared well against right-handed hitters.
Civale's sweeper possesses over 17 inches of glove-side movement, making it an above-average pitch. It helps that he locates the sweeper down and away from right-handed hitters. When Civale throws the sweeper on the outside corner and slightly out of the zone to right-handed hitters, it results in a .149 wOBA and a 19.2 percent swinging strike rate.
Civale should keep this approach with the sweeper because it's an effective arsenal change for whiffs and weaker contact. If he continues to throw the sweeper low and outside to right-handed hitters, it may pair well with a pitch that moves in on right-handed hitters like the sinker. However, his sinker results don't agree, given his .447 wOBA on sinkers thrown on the inside of the plate to right-handed hitters.
The Curveball is Losing Effectiveness
Civale's money pitch has been the curveball, but it's losing effectiveness. In 2024, Civale's curveball elicits a 12.7 percent swinging strike rate, similar to the sweeper (14 percent). That's over three percentage points below his swinging strike rate career average of 16 percent. So, why is the curveball less effective?
The downward movement on the curveball fluctuated recently, with a peak season (2022) with nearly 66 inches of drop. Civale's curveball possesses tons of downward movement and sweep, theoretically making it a challenging pitch for hitters to smash. He lowered the usage against right-handed hitters (12.6 percent), and the results regressed to a .436 wOBA in 2024 compared to a .203 wOBA in 2023. Historically, Civale's curveball has been one of his most effective pitches against righties, so it might help to bump up the usage.
Meanwhile, his curveball has been nasty against lefties, evidenced by a .195 wOBA and a 13.7 percent swinging strike rate. In 2023, he threw the curveball low in the zone and on the inside corner to left-handed hitters. Since the curveball possesses tons of vertical and horizontal movement, it might be a location issue. That's partially the case in 2024.
Civale throws his curveball nearly 40.9 percent of the time in Zone 14, down and away to right-handed hitters or low and inside to lefties in 2024. That's about two percentage points fewer than in 2023. However, the challenge occurs when Civale throws a hanging curveball in the zone. His curveball zone rates haven't changed much, but the results declined, evidenced by the worst results on curves in the zone (.365 wOBA) since his rookie season. It might benefit him to gradually lower the curveball zone rates, with the changes in movement (more sweep).
It's easier said than done to locate and command the curveball better, but it seems like a fixable change since it's something we've seen before. Hitters may be sitting on the curveball, especially early in the count, with a career-worst .834 wOBA on curves thrown to begin the count. Regardless of the count, Civale's curveball doesn't generate the same results, though the pitch shape hasn't changed much.
Summary
The Rays typically unlock a pitcher's potential, but Civale's worst outcomes in his career came with his current team. Civale's 4.13 xERA suggests the luck factors haven't been in his favor via the BABIP and strand rate straying about 3-4 percentage points from his career average. The skills have looked relatively similar, with a 16 percent strikeout minus walk rate and a 10 percent swinging strike rate.
Civale's sweeper looks like a positive addition to attack same-handed hitters. However, his curveball doesn't have the same effectiveness, especially when thrown in the zone. Civale locates the curveball at a similar rate down and away to righties and low and inside to lefties, yet hitters have been destroying it when left in the zone. Be patient in deep leagues or buy low as a deep-league streaming pitcher option to turn it around in the next month or so, though the data looks pessimistic.
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