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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of my 2024 fantasy baseball start/sit article for Week 13, July 1 - July 7. This week's article will focus on Jonathan India, CJ Abrams, Byron Buxton, Jarred Kelenic, Brandon Pfaadt, Lance Lynn, Kevin Gausman, and Gerrit Cole.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-racking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare up to four players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, the current week, next week, or the rest of the season.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, July 1 - July 7!
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Fantasy Baseball Solid Middle Infielders
Jonathan India (2B) vs. CJ Abrams (SS)
Our first comparison is between two middle infielders who had great Junes. Jonathan India has turned his season around, slashing .386/.465/.578 with two home runs, 14 RBI, and three stolen bases in 99 June plate appearances. CJ Abrams' (wrist) season has followed a similar story, as he has put up a season-best .359/.438/.615 slash line, three HR, 14 RBI, and five stolen bases in 89 June plate appearances. Which player has a better chance to keep their hot streak going?
RotoBaller gives Abrams a strong recommendation for Sunday. This is interesting, as India draws a favorable matchup while Abrams will face a tough one. Abrams does have slight projection advantages in runs, HR, RBI, and stolen bases, while India draws a batting average projection advantage. This matchup may be closer than displayed, but Abrams' slight projection advantages add up.
Looking to Week 15, the Reds will face tough matchups with three games at the Yankees and three against the Tigers. The Nationals will face better matchups with four games against the Mets and three against the Cardinals. The Reds are slated to face two lefties while the Giants will face three. This benefits both players, who have both hit lefties better this season.
Both players have been great lately and have provided a bit of everything. Of course, positional eligibility could come into play, but in terms of a middle infielder, I will go with Abrams for Week 15 since he gets to play one more game and has better matchups.
Fantasy Baseball Uncertain Outfielders
Byron Buxton vs. Jarred Kelenic
Our next comparison is between two outfielders who have been inconsistent for various reasons throughout their fantasy careers. Byron Buxton's power-speed combo has always been compelling, but injuries and extremely low batting averages have led to inconsistent value. Jarred Kelenic was a former top fantasy prospect and is still just 24 years old, but he has never been able to string together a full season of high performance. Both players have put together solid seasons so far, so which one is a better bet?
Kelenic gets a recommendation for Sunday. Both players' counting stat projections are essentially even, but Kelenic has a clear projection advantage in batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage.
The Twins will face a tough six-game homestand in Week 15 with three games against the Tigers and three against the Astros. The Braves will also have a tough homestand, with three games against the Giants and three against the Phillies. Both players have been on fire lately, but the Twins' offense has been on a tear while the Braves have scuffled. As such, I'll give the nod to Buxton.
Fantasy Baseball Middling Streamers With Favorable Matchups
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Lance Lynn
Our next comparison is between two starters who have provided some fantasy value this season and draw strong matchups to end the week. Brandon Pfaadt's numbers aren't great but he has turned in some useful starts with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 21.4% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 97 innings pitched. Lance Lynn has rebounded after a poor 2023 with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 21.7% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 81 2/3 IP. Which one of these pitchers offers a higher upside in their next few starts?
RotoBaller gives Pfaadt a strong recommendation for Sunday. Pfaadt is projected to pitch an inning more than Lynn, which results in a projection advantage in wins and strikeouts. Lynn also has a much higher WHIP projection than Pfaadt, tilting the scales Pfaadt's way.
Pfaadt is slated for a middling matchup at the Padres in Week 15, while Lynn will draw another favorable matchup at the Nationals. Neither pitcher has been great in June (Pfaadt with a 5.10 ERA, Lynn with a 4.81 ERA), but Lynn's 22.7% strikeout rate in that time has been better than Pfaadt's 18.1%. I prefer to avoid both if possible, but would rather go with Lynn if I had to pick one.
Fantasy Baseball Questionable Aces
Kevin Gausman vs. Gerrit Cole
Our final comparison is between two starters who have typically been top fantasy options but have not delivered this season. Kevin Gausman has not had many things go his way with a 6-6 record, a 4.26 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 22.8% strikeout rate in 16 starts and 86 2/3 IP. Gerrit Cole has only made two starts this season but has lasted just eight IP with a 9.00 ERA, five strikeouts, and four HR allowed. Fantasy managers may be concerned; which pitcher has a chance to turn things around sooner?
RotoBaller gives Gausman a strong recommendation for Sunday. The two players will face each other, and the Blue Jays' offense has been surging lately while the Yankees have been slumping. Cole does have wins, strikeouts, and ERA projection advantages. However, he has a 1.70 WHIP projection, which is awful and much worse than Gausman's 1.34. Gausman seems like a safer play regardless of the projections.
Gausman is scheduled for a favorable matchup in Week 15 at the Mariners, while Cole will likely face a middling matchup against the Red Sox. Cole is the better fantasy option when both are firing on all cylinders, but neither are and Cole needs to prove he is truly healthy before fantasy managers can feel good about starting him. As such, I will choose Gausman for Week 15.
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