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Jon Anderson's potentially undervalued fantasy baseball starting pitchers to target in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts. These SPs can be strikeout sleepers on draft day.
Welcome back to RotoBaller, here we have another later-round category targets piece - this time focusing on strikeouts.
Strikeouts are an interesting category for fantasy given how differently they can be handled in fantasy baseball. Lots of leagues use strikeout rate of some sort (strikeout rate or strikeouts per nine). Those seem to make more sense to me, but the industry standard actually still remains total strikeouts. Agree with that or not, it absolutely does open up a lot of value to be discovered in the draft.
The main thing you want to look for when hunting for strikeouts is innings pitched. That is very interesting for this 2021 season where we really have doubts about many pitchers reaching 180+ innings. You may very well be able to be near the top of your league in strikeouts without investing heavily in pitching in the draft and just being smart (and probably getting lucky) about getting the pitchers that will throw the most innings. Here are some names that have higher probabilities of racking up the innings in 2021 and benefitting your fantasy team in strikeouts because of it.
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Zack Greinke, Houston Astros
ADP: 106
The boring yet reliable veteran is going to be a common thread here. Greinke is once again going pretty late with an ADP of above 100. Even at age 37, he's pretty attractive at that price point given that he had managed 200+ innings three consecutive years before 2020 where he racked up 67. The strikeout rate is not going to be through the roof (8.6, 8.1, and 9.0 K/9 rates the last three years), but he is as good a bet as anybody to flirt with 200 innings pitched in 2021, which will help him tremendously in catching up in total strikeouts.
There is also the element of how much teams want to protect their pitchers for future years. With guys like Greinke, there's way less to worry about on that front. The Astros are not going to be concerned about putting too many innings on Greinke's arm this year for fear of losing innings from him in the future. That heightens his chances even more of throwing more innings than the vast majority of starters. You can have Greinke as an SP2 or SP3 and chances are you'll be pleased with how many strikeouts he gets you at that price.
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals
ADP: 140
Everybody is running for the hills after his brutal 2020 season where Corbin posted a 1.57 WHIP and a 4.66 ERA with a 20.3% strikeout rate that was 8% below his 2019 number. There are legitimate reasons for concerns, but there is also the obvious chance that 2020 will prove to be the outlier and he will bounce back to the form he showed us in 2018-2019 when he posted a 29% strikeout rate with a 3.20 ERA. If he does that, he will probably be the biggest SP value in the league.
This is not a pick I am rushing out to make, as there are real concerns that he just won't be able to pull off his slider-heavy ways any longer, but nobody knows the future and the upside at pick 140 is undeniable.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
ADP: 166
Pitching half of his games in Coors Field with a pretty bad offense behind him makes Marquez really only useful for one category, but that category is strikeouts. He posted a 10.6 K/9 in 2018, but things have been falling ever since with a 9.1 rate in 2019 and an 8.0 rate in 2020. The expectation should probably be above nine again, and he has proven to be a pretty strong innings eater.
The Rockies are one of the teams that really don't mind letting their starters throw as many innings as they can, as their home ballpark really abuses their bullpen. That makes Marquez a decent bet to go over 180 innings, which could result in close to 200 strikeouts if things go well for him.
He's unlikely to help your squad in ERA and WHIP, but the strikeouts standout this late in the draft.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 203
The Angels lefty posted a 28.9% strikeout rate in 2019 and a 25.1% rate last year. He has always been an above-average strikeout pitcher and has really flashed some upside at times. The problem has been consistency and health. He pitched a full season in 2018 (180 innings), but that has been the only time he's mustered even 110 or more innings in the last five years. To his credit, he was healthy all of last year, but that resulted in just 66.2 innings.
The Angels are a six-man rotation with Shohei Ohtani making starts once a week, which limits Heaney's inning total, but for a guy going after pick 200, he should provide more than enough strikeouts to make you glad you picked him up.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 287
Same idea with Marquez here, as Boyd has been complete murder on ERA and WHIP since the second half of 2019 began. He posted a 6.71 ERA last year while giving up 2.2 homers per nine. This is not someone you want to put any reliance on for fantasy successes.
However, he did rack up a 30.2% strikeout rate in 2019 while throwing 185 innings. That makes him a guy that could easily lead the 200+ ADP pitchers in strikeouts, so if you're really trying to catch up in strikeouts and don't mind the blow to your ratios, Boyd is a decent option.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 295
Skubal is going very, very late in drafts and is certainly not a great bet to throw 150+ innings. He threw just 32 innings last year and was not all that great giving up a 5.63 ERA with a 2.5 HR/9. That makes his floor really, really low. The good news was that he showed the ability to strikeout Major League hitters with a 27.6% strikeout rate.
He has some impressive pitches, so if he can continue to improve he could prove really valuable as a guy being drafted this late.
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