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With the 2024 MLB season set to begin, there is still a little bit of time for fantasy baseball research and analysis for drafts. In this article, we'll dive into three potential sleepers or busts ahead of the new fantasy baseball campaign.
Brandon Nimmo, Framber Valdez, and Justin Steele are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Nimmo, Valdez, or Steele in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Brandon Nimmo Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 159
Current ADP: ~pick 157
Analysis: New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo quietly goes about his business as one of the most consistent offensive outfielders in the game. He's not going to lead the league in home runs and he isn't a middle-of-the-order run producer. However, he's an elite table-setter whose bat has been at least 30% more productive than the league average in five of the last six seasons, as per wRC+. Last season, he slugged a career-high 24 home runs and tied a career-high with 30 doubles to go along with six triples, the second-most of his career.
What a catch by Brandon Nimmo🔥 pic.twitter.com/NzA0i5vMhY
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) March 24, 2024
He has hit at least .274 in each of his last four seasons and his 191 runs scored over the last two campaigns ranks seventh among qualified outfielders. His walk rate has dipped to 10.7% in that time, but he has also walked at a 13% clip in his career. He's your perfect leadoff hitter who has struck out less than 20% of the time in two of his last four seasons, maxing out at 21.4% in that stretch.
Framber Valdez Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 51
Current ADP: ~pick 52
Analysis: Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez makes his living getting hitters to swing into ground balls. He did that again in 2023 (only San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb had a higher groundball rate than Valdez's 54.2%), but that was a 12-percentage point drop from his 66% in 2022. Fewer ground balls meant more fly balls and home runs. His flyball rate jumped to 25%, accompanying a 37.4% hard-hit rate that was seven percentage points higher than in 2022.
What Valdez will be looking to do in 2024 is return to the 100th percentile, elite levels of inducing grounders. In 2022, Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and was top five in Cy Young voting. Despite how he regressed, Valdez did have a career-high 200 strikeouts last season and struck out more than a batter per inning.
If he can put that strikeout rate with the 2022 ground ball rate, this could be a Cy Young winner, considering the strong offense he has at his back. ATC projects Valdez with a 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts across 189 innings in 2024, making him a solid pick at his current consensus ADP of 52.8
Justin Steele Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 89
Current ADP: ~pick 90
Analysis: Chicago Cubs pitcher Justin Steele has been a model of consistency over the last two seasons, his only two full big-league campaigns. After working to a 3.18 ERA across 24 starts in the 2022 season, the left-hander tossed a dynamite 3.06 ERA across 30 starts and 173 1/3 innings a season ago. In doing so, he walked just 5% of the hitters he faced, putting him in the top seven in ERA and walk rate among qualified pitchers. He allowed three earned runs or fewer in 26 of his 30 starts last season and 25 of his first 27 before yielding six earned runs twice over his final three starts.
Left-Handed Pitchers with a higher fWar than Jordan Montgomery last season:
1) Justin Steele
End of list. pic.twitter.com/iYFkviIDqq
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) March 27, 2024
He went at least six innings in 23 of his 29 non-injury starts and at least five innings in 27 of 29 such outings. The elite control gave him a 19.1% K-BB% ratio that aligned with fellow arms such as Blake Snell, Logan Webb, and Aaron Nola. With a 90.4 ADP, Steele is right where he should be.
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Sleepers
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Kumar Rocker - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Waiver Wire Pickups (Week 25)
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Jasson Dominguez: Fantasy Baseball Prospects Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 25 (2024)
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 35% of Leagues ANALYSIS: The New York Yankees called up their top prospect, Jasson Dominguez, before Monday's series opener against the Kansas City Royals. Dominguez hit sixth and played left field in his second major league start of the season. In that contest, he went 1-for-4 with […]
Will Wagner - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Waiver Wire Stashes (Week 23)
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Connor Norby - Fantasy Baseball Prospects Waiver Wire Stashes (Week 22)
BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Leagues CALL-UP ETA: August 19 ANALYSIS: Connor Norby is finally making his much-anticipated debut for the Miami Marlins. Norby, who was acquired at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Trevor Rogers to Baltimore, was playing with Miami's Triple-A team in Jacksonville since being traded but was activated by Miami […]
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