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Welcome back RotoBallers! Today we're looking at some of the best value picks from our recent RotoBaller staff mock draft. You can also read about everyone's biggest draft reaches and regrets. As we steamroll into fantasy baseball draft season, the team here at RotoBaller continues to practice what we preach by partaking in mock drafts. It's the best way to test out plans, gather information to have a better idea of what to expect for the real thing and try out new ideas you've been working on.
Not only does the team do these mocks for our own personal benefits, but also to bring what we find to our valued readers. Every participant in the draft was asked to look back and choose their best value pick in the draft. I'll then add my own little bit of analysis on their choice and why the pick will present such good value.
For context, this was a 12-team draft with the standard five batting categories; R, RBI, HR, SB and AVG. Pitching was slightly different from the standard with quality starts (QS) replacing wins and instead of saves, we used holds and saves combined (SVH). So pitching stats were QS, K, ERA, WHIP and SVH. The rosters were 26 players with the standard positions; C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 x OF, UT. The full draft board can be found below.
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Draft Board
The full draft board can be found below. You can click it to enlarge.
What do you think was your best value pick?
Michael Grennell (@MichaelGrennell)
Zack Wheeler - Round 7 Pick 11 (Overall 83), ADP 89
Michael: "Especially in this format, Wheeler is a QS machine. He's been a top-25 pitcher in QS and QS% for three years straight".
In a year where pitchers may have more innings limits than ever, Wheeler offers more value due to his reliability. Since 2018, only eleven pitchers have thrown more than Wheeler's 448.2. Only seven of those have more quality starts than Wheeler's 43 (from 71 starts). Wheeler has a 3.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 23.0% K% in that span too so isn't just offering empty and valueless innings.
Javier Baez - Round 7 Pick 8 (Overall 80), ADP 89
Pierre: "I realize he isn't viewed as a top-50 player anymore but getting Baez at 80 overall feels like a steal. He's 28 years old and one season removed from 29 HR, 85 RBI, 89 R, 11 SB, and .283 AVG".
I'm glad Pierre eluded to Baez's 2019 season as following that year, he had an ADP ~25 last Spring. If we look at his projections for this year, they look remarkably similar to his actual 2019 season numbers, bar the batting average. If he can match his projections, or at least get near to them, he'll easily return value as a seventh-round pick and should end up as a top-50 player again in 2022 drafts.
Jose Urquidy - Round 14 Pick 4 (Overall 160), ADP 204
Eric: "I am not weighing Urquidy's 2020 stats too much since he battled COVID and was likely not 100% even when he was back. He has a great pitch mix and is on a team that will let him go deep into games, so I'm a big fan this year".
As Eric alluded to, Urquidy might have had 2.73 ERA over his five starts last year, but also a 5.36 xFIP and 5.41 SIERA. Urquidy threw six or more innings in four of his five starts last year and three of his seven starts in 2019, all of which were quality starts. Urquidy's 5.3% BB% over his fledgling career has helped him to a 1.06 WHIP so in this format, Urquidy has a solid enough floor to provide value in the 14th round and carries the upside to be even better.
Yordan Alvarez - Round 7 Pick 12 (Overall 84), ADP 96
JB: "Also liked Zack Greinke at 108, Andrew Heaney at 180 and Eduardo Rodriguez at 181".
JB clearly liked some of his picks, and rightly so. We'll focus on Alvarez here as he's somewhat of a divisive player this season. Chronic knee issues have blighted Alvarez's early career but as long as he's healthy enough to hit, he'll play. If Alvarez plays, he'll return seventh-round value. He hit 29 homers in 87 games in 2019 and his 2021 projections have Alvarez playing ~130 games and hitting between 32-37 homers with around a .280 AVG. Over a full season, he's a strong candidate to hit 40+ homers.
Nelson Cruz - Round 9 Pick 6 (Overall 102), ADP 99
Nick: "When one drafts Nelson Cruz, then Nelson Cruz becomes your answer. This is true until the man retires. I respect the aging curve but the price point more than bakes that in given his place in a stacked Minnesota Twins order".
I don't think this one needs much explanation. The perennial undervaluation of Cruz continues. Yes, he's only eligible to be played in your utility spot, but someone has to fill that spot so why not someone who has hit 37 or more homers in each of his last seven seasons (the 16 homers last year equates to 43 over a full season). Looking at his Statcast profile, it makes no sense for Cruz to once again be drafted so late. His 93rd percentile barrel rate last year is actually his lowest rank since Statcast recorded the data from 2015.
Mike Schwarzenbach (@Schwarz_Mike)
Jorge Soler - Round 17 Pick 7 (199 Overall), ADP 148
Mike: "His utility-only eligibility aided in his slide, but I love the value of Soler at 199th overall. Toss out his 34.5% strikeout rate last season as a small-sample anomaly as he was league-average the two seasons prior. He's got elite barrel skills and hits the ball as hard as anyone. It's hard to find 40-homer upside near pick 200".
Like Cruz, Soler is somewhat forgotten due to being utility-only eligible in fantasy. And like Cruz, he is a very good source of power. With the Royals improved lineup, Soler should feature in the heart of it so runs and RBI will be accumulated. It's only two years ago he hit 48 homers as an everyday player and he ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and exit velocity last year. He also had an expected home run total of 10.7, 2.7 more than his actual total of eight.
Carlos Santana - Round 16 Pick 11 (Overall 191), ADP 216
The Royals have quietly put together a solid lineup this offseason and Santana will play a big part in that. Somewhat dismissed as just a "walk-machine", there's no doubting Santana is even more valuable in OBP leagues having ranked in the 97th percentile or better in walk-rate (BB%) over the last three seasons. But those walks should also lead to runs which is an oft-overlooked fantasy stat. Santana has missed just 68 games in the last ten years so is Mr.Consistency and despite being considered a boring pick, still can provide value as a corner infielder.
Will Smith - Round 11 Pick 1 (Overall 121), ADP 115
Nick: "One of the top catching options fell to me late".
Smith is very much one of the top catching options and arguably the no.1 option. In 91 MLB games, Smith has 23 homers and a .268/.363/.574 slash line. Compare that to Realmuto's 2019 slash line of .275/.349/.491 with 25 homers in 145 games. Is a 60+ ADP difference between those really warranted? Realmuto is clearly a better catcher so will play more but Smith is arguably a better hitter. The lack of a universal DH does restrict Smith's potential playing time but not enough to consider him anything but an elite catching option in fantasy.
Jared Walsh - Round 16 Pick 9 (189 Overall), ADP 223
I'm glad I'm not the only one high on Walsh this year. Providing he doesn't have a disastrous Spring, Walsh looks likely to be the Angels everyday first baseman. He spent most of last year batting second in the lineup so will have the benefit of hitting in front of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon if that continues. In his last 211 games at Triple-A and MLB levels, Walsh has 54 homers, and now 27 years old, is in his peak power years.
J.D. Davis - Round 24 Pick 8 (284 Overall), ADP 218
Jamie: "Given I took Edwin Rios as my corner infielder, I wanted someone else who can play there for versatility so it doesn't matter if they only play 80-100 games each, I can just play the matchups".
Davis has a big question mark over his playing-time this year due to his defensive deficiencies at third base. But similarly to Dominic Smith, the Mets will likely find enough plate appearances for him to ensure they keep the bat in the lineup. In his two years with the Mets, Davis has played 196 games (682 plate appearances) with 28 HR, 91 R, 76 RBI, 3 SB and a .288/.370./483 slash line. In leagues with daily roster changes, Davis is a great bench bat to have and use to cover any gaps at third base, corner infield or the utility spot.
Nate Pearson - Round 19 Pick 10 (226 Overall), ADP 205
Jon: "Too much upside to get with that little risk so late".
MLB Pipeline has Pearson as the no.10 overall prospect in baseball and the no.1 right-handed pitcher so it might come as a surprise that so many "young upside" pitchers are being drafted before Pearson. Pearson did struggle last year in his MLB debut but so many pitching prospects do when they first come up to the Majors despite his 100MPH fastball. In 2019, he worked up from High-A to Triple-A making 25 starts across all three levels with a combined 2.30 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 101.2 IP. Although 2021 may be a little early, as Jon says, there's a lot much upside for a round 19 pick.
Patrick Corbin - Round 10 Pick 10 (118 Overall), ADP 106
Jon: "There's no doubt he had a rough 2020 season with his 4.66 ERA and 1.57 WHIP but I think he returns to form in 2021. He lost some velocity with this fastball and his slider, typically his best offering, wasn't as effective as it has been in the past. Lots of players struggled to get into a rhythm during the shortened season and I think Corbin falls into that category. He could end up being a tremendous value if can rekindle some of that magic he showed in the 2018 and 2019 seasons".
Last year's lack of a normal pre-season preparation likely contributed to Corbin's struggles so his velocity drop could be linked to that. Before last year, Corbin had back-to-back seasons with 200+ IP and a combined 3.20 ERA with a 29.6% K%. During the 2018 and 2019 seasons, Corbin totaled 65 starts and had 43 quality starts (66.15%) so should be one of the most reliable arms in drafts this year.
Thanks to everyone involved in the draft and for their feedback. Special thanks to Eric Samulski for putting together the post-draft survey. Go check everyone out on Twitter and give them a follow.
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