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Jon Anderson gives his favorite fantasy baseball picks at each position with ADPs greater than pick 250 heading into 2023 drafts.
I wouldn't say that the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts are easy, but there is certainly a distinct difference between the early rounds and the late rounds. The players going inside the top 200 or so are generally somewhat predictable - you more or less know what you're getting as long as they stay healthy.
What can really set a fantasy team apart is being able to hit on those late-round picks. Plenty of drafts these days go well past 300 picks, so I wanted to chime in here and give some of the guys that stand out most to me at each position very late in drafts. I will give three hitters at each position that stand out to me above this ADP threshold, and maybe even throw in some bonus picks along the way.
I will be using my projection system to do this, as well as looking at underlying skill data to see which players stand out the most.
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Catcher
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP 255)
The Diamondbacks' catching situation is still a little bit unclear, so the projection is using just a 309 PA season for Moreno, but even that turns into 10 homers, three steals, and a .272 batting average. That projects to be a pretty darn good season for such a low pick if he can solidify his spot as the Diamondbacks' primary backstop, and I don't see why he can't pull that off.
He didn't show a ton of pop last season with just one homer in the Majors and only three more in the minors, and his 3% barrel rate doesn't give us a ton of upside either. However, he does not strike out (11% in his short Major League sample, 17% in his larger AAA sample), and he's a 22-year-old highly touted prospect - so there's lots of room for growth.
Christian Bethancourt, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP 290)
Of all of the catchers going after pick 250, Bethancourt projects for the third-best HR/PA with 13.4 project long balls in 312 projected PAs. The two guys ahead of him, Gary Sanchez and Mike Zunino, will absolutely trash your batting average, and that's not necessarily true with Bethancourt, who projects for a .240 average.
Last season, he put up a strong 11.7% barrel rate in the Majors while managing strikeouts at 24%. He's no league-winner, but you can do a whole lot worse down at this price.
Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants (ADP 325)
Sometimes you just want playing time as a catcher, and Bart projects for the second-most PAs among catchers after pick 250 (Martin Maldonado). It's true that he'll likely be a nuclear bomb to your batting average (projected at .204, he struck out 38% of the time last year) - but that actually doesn't hurt as bad when it's coming from a catcher who doesn't play every day.
Bart also has power in the bat, as evidenced by his 10.1% barrel rate last year. There is also always the possibility of improvement in the strikeout rate seeing as Bart has seen less than two years in the Majors. The pick probably won't do much for your team, but at some point, you just need to fill the spot - and Bart at least offers some upside.
Bonus Pick: Endy Rodriguez, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 360)
It's clear that the Pirates don't want to rely on Endy as their catcher out of the gate, but you would think he'd get the call-up before too long. He slashed .323/.407/.590 in the minors last year with 25 homers and four steals. He saw only 23 PAs at the AAA level, so it would be quite a jump to the Majors, but he made the A+ to AA jump quite well with a 1.120 OPS in Altoona, and he looked quite good in his short time in AAA as well with a 1.208 OPS.
It seems like the guy can hit, although you truly never know when you're looking at a guy whose career has mostly been spent in A+ ball right now. He's a fine lottery-pick type catcher pick though, and certainly someone to add in-season when if he would get the call-up.
First Base
Miguel Vargas, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 270)
Playing time is uncertain for Vargas now with the signings of J.D. Martinez and Miguel Rojas as well as the presence of utility man Chris Taylor. He is not currently in the projected starting lineup. The good news, however, is that Vargas can play first base, third base, and outfield - so there are plenty of ways for him to find some PAs.
And he was good at the dish last year. In 525 PAs in AAA, he slashed .307/.406/.519 with 18 homers and 16 steals on just a 14.5% K%. That earned him some Major League playing time, slashing just .170/.200/.255 in his 50 PAs with a much higher 26% strikeout rate. That's not a good line, but it can be forgiven with the small sample size. Since he played his minor league season in the PCL, we have Statcast data here, and that shows a 9% barrel rate and an 81% contact rate in his time in AAA. Only two hitters in the PCL were able to generate a barrel rate above 9% and a contact rate above 80% - so his performance down there really stands out.
Having hitters on your team from that Dodgers lineup is always a plus, so if the Dodgers' #3 prospect can earn a starting role, he should definitely get a shot in fantasy lineups while we see what he's capable of in 2023.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (ADP 410)
He might just be cooked at this point in his career, at the age of 39. He had an injury-riddled 2022 season, and he wasn't looking good even before the injuries - but I just can't make myself forget about that 17.2% barrel rate from 2021. He had clearly re-tooled his swing that year to just go for broke and hit homers, and it worked really well for him. I don't think it's out of the question that he can hit enough homers to smash his ADP here, so I'll be looking for some Votto shares this year as a bench first baseman in deep leagues.
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins (ADP 426)
Cooper has yet to stay on the field for a full season, but he's gone above a 10% barrel rate in each of the last three (short) seasons. The bonus is that he has kept his strikeout rate in the mid-twenties. The list of hitters that can sustain a double-digit barrel rate with a strikeout rate near 25% is not a very long one. Cooper is talented. If he can ever stumble into a season of full health, he seems like a 20+ homers guy with the ability to flirt with a .275 or so batting average - and that would be pretty useful after pick 400.
Carlos Santana, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 443)
Lots of people have talked about Santana as a late-round first base sleeper this offseason, and for good reason. He is a guy that can still hit the ball hard regularly (45% hard-hit rate), he does not strike out much (17.5% K%), and he stands to benefit from the shift ban (shifted on 90% of the time while batting left-handed).
The Pirates do not exactly have stud hitters breathing down his neck for PAs at 1B and DH, so with any kind of success at the plate - Santana should be able to stay in the lineup. That alone isn't easy to find this late in drafts, so add on Santana's 20-homer ability and you have yourself a nice late-round pick.
Second Base
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins (ADP 280)
The playing time projection has gotten pinched a little bit as the Twins have added Joey Gallo and re-signed Carlos Correa, but Gordon can play all over the field and showed some really good signs in 2022 - which bodes well for his playing time in 2023.
Gordon hit .271/.312/.426 with nine homers on a 9.4% Brl% and a 23.8% K% in 2022. He's still relatively young at age 27 and has plenty of bat and foot speed. I could see a 25-15 season for Gordon if he finds regular playing time and takes another step forward at the plate - and you can often draft him after pick 300. Sign me up!
Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP 320)
Donovan is not a league-winning player, there is no chance of that. He has very little power (3.4% barrel rate), and he does not figure to be a top-of-the-lineup bat for the Cardinals. That severely limits his playing time.
The reason to like him is that he plays every position on the field besides pitcher and catcher - that makes it easy for him to find playing time. And while he's playing, he is going to rack up base hits. He hit .298 with a 12% strikeout rate in the minors and then hit .281 with a 15% strikeout rate in the Majors. He makes tons of contact and can steal some bags (seven steals in less than 550 PAs last year). He's an especially nice pick in "draft and hold" leagues because he can fill in wherever you have an injury - that's worth quite a bit in leagues where you can't run to the waiver wire when injuries start to derail your team.
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP 420)
I actually like drafting Donovan and Gorman together since their playing time is related. If Donovan becomes more of a bench player, that might just be because Gorman hit his way into everyday reps at second base.
It was not a convincing debut season for Gorman, who struck out 33% of the time in the Majors and hit just .226 because of it. The low batting average comes with a high home run rate though, as Gorman mashed 30 homers in 501 PAs between AAA and MLB (16 in the minors, 14 in the Majors). There is little doubting his home run hitting ability as he flashed a sweet 14.4% barrel rate and one of the league's highest fly-ball rates. He takes a heavy upper-cut swing, and that makes him miss the ball a ton - but when he connects, the ball is going to travel very far.
He could fall flat in 2023, or he could even spend a lot of the season back in the minors - but the upside is pretty large if he can find regular PAs and improve that strikeout rate even just a little bit.
Shortstop
Luis Garcia, Washington Nationals (ADP 360)
I really liked Garcia after the callup last year, but it didn't work out all that well. He hit a solid .274 but ended up with just seven homers in 376 PAs (a bad 53.7 PA/HR). There is a reason for optimism about his power upside, however, as he cleared a 36% hard-hit rate in the Majors and put up a decent enough 7.5% barrel rate.
That was after hitting eight homers in a short time in AAA (205 PA). He swings the bat with good speed and can steal some bags as well (six steals) - so he's already shown the ability to do a little bit of everything, and he's a very young player (he'll turn 23 in May). This is the ideal age range for us to find guys massively improving over an offseason, so that's what we're banking on here with Garcia.
Oswald Peraza, New York Yankees (ADP 384)
He swiped 36 bags last season (34 in the minors, two in the Majors in 57 PA), and he hit a solid .263/.333/.453 in AAA. We have seen so little at the Major League level that it's hard to project him, but he's a speedy guy with seemingly good bat skills (22% K% last season, 82% contact rate in the Majors), so that gives him some upside.
The most important thing will be playing time. He's currently slotted in as the Yankees' starting shortstop, but I think that Spring Training will determine if that actually happens. He's worth a speculative pick late in the drafts as someone who can at least contribute in steals if he finds the playing time.
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (ADP 530)
Typically, these minor league lottery tickets don't pan out, so I usually don't try it - but I'm willing to take a shot here. The Reds are not likely to be a winning team in 2023, which makes it a bit more likely they'll give some earlier run to the top prospects - and De La Cruz is certainly one of their more exciting young players.
Between A+ and AA last year, De La Cruz hit .306/.360/.596 with 29 homers and 47 steals. Going from AA to the MLB level is a massive jump, and most players take a couple of years to adjust, but if you're going to take a swing on someone like this - you might as well make it someone who showed the ability to hit a ton of homers and steal a ton of bases at the lower levels.
This pick probably won't pan out in 2023, but the cost is so low that the upside justifies buying a ticket.
Third Base
Ramon Urias, Baltimore Orioles (ADP 450)
I was pretty surprised to see his price this year, and we've already seen it on the up-and-up. He's currently in the Opening Day lineup at third base and in the #6 hole, right behind some pretty competent hitters in Rutschman, Henderson, Mountcastle, and Santander. Urias had a solid 9.6% barrel rate last year with a strong 22% strikeout rate. He hit .248/.305/.414 in the Majors last year with 16 homers in just 445 plate appearances.
The downside, I suppose, is that maybe he's not really that good and will lose his job as some of these young Orioles blossoms. There's certainly no guarantee that he's in the lineup come July given that he's 28-years-old and we haven't seen much good from him prior to 2022 - but for right now, he seems like a superb value where he's being drafted.
Jeimer Candelario, Washington Nationals (ADP 450)
We have seen players benefit a ton from escaping Detroit, so that's what we're hoping for here with Candelario. He has done basically nothing useful for us in fantasy in his career, but he pushed the barrel rate to 9% in 2021 and then 8.3% in 2022 - a league-average level. He did not get league-average home run totals (16 and 13) with that, but the move away from Comerica Park to Nationals Park is a huge plus in the power department.
Candelario limits strikeouts (22% over the last three seasons) and has had seasons where he's hit a ton of line drives (a good sign for a potential batting average). He's not a game-breaking player by any means, but a 20-homer season with a .275 batting average is in the range of outcomes and he should find regular playing time in a really bad Nationals lineup.
Eduardo Escobar, New York Mets (ADP 364)
He will be fighting off Brett Baty and some other young guys for playing time in a loaded Mets lineup, but he should get the job out of camp, and he has recently had very useful fantasy seasons. He hit 28 homers in 2021 and then 20 more last season, and he pushed the barrel rate above 9% in 2022. His strikeout rate hit a career-high last year, but that still was under 24% - so there's a lot of skill in the bat. The floor is quite low as he'll be a bottom-third bat in the lineup even if he keeps the job - but you don't find much 25+ homer power after pick 350 - and Escobar offers that at a thin position.
Outfield
Austin Meadows, Detroit Tigers (ADP 300)
Any time you can get a player that was previously a top 20 outfielder who is still young (Meadows is 27) after pick 300, you have to take a look. His young career has recently been derailed by injury, as he saw just 147 PAs last year, but there's no reason he can't get healthy and stay healthy in 2023.
The 2019 season does feel like a lifetime ago, but it wasn't - and Meadows did go for 33 homers and a dozen steals that year. Maybe that was the exception rather than the rule, but it seems incorrect to think he doesn't have 25 homers and 15 steals in the range of outcomes this year. The Tigers also made some small changes to the ballpark that should benefit fly-balls there, which does improve things a bit for Meadows. He's a risk - but at pick 300, a lot of that is reduced.
Jake Fraley, Cincinnati Reds (ADP 315)
Another guy who spent plenty of time on the IL last year, but between those trips, Fraley hit .259/.341/.468 with a dozen homers and four steals. He is scheduled to be an everyday outfielder for the Reds, and any everyday player with an above-average barrel rate can certainly make some hay in Great American Ballpark. He's even better in OBP leagues with his career 12.7% walk rate.
Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants (ADP 420)
The field seems to have an irrational hatred of Yas this year, as his ADP has fallen the whole way past pick 400. It's true that he was pretty atrocious last year, hitting .214/.305/.392, but he did once again put up a strong barrel rate at 11.1% - and that came with a non-awful 25.3% K%. The ballpark is rough for left-handed power, but a double-digit barrel rate will still play fine there, so I think there's definitely the possibility of another 25-homer season for him.
The projections don't see a ton of improvement on his 17 homers and .214 batting average from last year, which is discouraging, but he is in the Giants' projected lineup as the starting centerfielder and the #3 hitter - which you can't find very often after pick 300. I'll take a shot on Yastrzemski as a bench outfielder in deep leagues.
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins (ADP 440)
He will probably sit against lefties, but that still carves out 500-ish plate appearances for him, and he will likely lead off or hit #2 a lot in that time. That alone is reason to like a guy after pick 400, but Kepler is also a guy that can hit the long ball (9% barrel rate since 2021), and he does not strike out hardly at all (15% K% in 2022). He could also benefit mightily from the shift ban, and the projection systems have him posting a career-best batting average because of that. A lot of it is speculation, but the price has fallen a ridiculous amount for 2023 - so I'm going to be buying once more.
Trayce Thompson, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 577)
The Dodgers probably aren't done tinkering with the roster, but if they are - Thompson is in a spot to get plenty of reps. He had one of the league's best barrel rates last season at 16.4%, but of course, it came with a bad 36.5% strikeout rate. He's done this "all or nothing" power thing for a while now, hitting homers at a pace of 40+ in all of 2019, 2021, and 2022 (extrapolating to 600 PAs). He will hit his homers for sure, what's much less certain is the playing time on a team that doesn't spend a lot of time with subpar hitters.
There you have it, some deep league hitting options at all six positions, hope this helped!
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