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The 2020 MLB season is set to begin with a 60-game schedule. The RotoBaller staff explains how their top draft strategies for fantasy baseball in season-long redraft leagues.
Baseball is coming back and it's about time! The announcement of a 60-game season comes as a blessing and a curse. It's barely over one-third of a normal MLB season and will come with several modifications to the rule book. Then again, at this point we are just happy to have baseball (or any live sports in the U.S.) at all, so we'll take it.
Fantasy leagues are ready to fire up again with the onset of a new draft season. These unique circumstances will require a whole new line of thinking, however, and nobody knows quite what to expect.
In order to prep for fantasy drafts, we gathered intel from several members of our MLB writing staff on their approach to the 2020 season. Here are some revised draft strategies to consider.
What is the biggest change in draft strategy with a 60-game season?
As I have indicated in my Insider Reports, you cannot afford to lean too heavily on streaky hitters that strike out often. If a hitter goes cold for a good chunk of the schedule he could really hurt your outlook and may press for longer knowing there is not much time to turn things around. -Scott Engel
How to construct your pitching staff will be crucial especially in leagues that have maximum or minimum IP allowances. There are already reports of teams going with 6-man rotations and it's more than likely that those non-closers in relief who can help your ratios while accumulating strikeouts will have even greater value over such a short stretch. With "Taxi-Squads" in use, teams will have some of their top prospects used frequently this season so streaming starting pitchers will also be more prevalent. -Jamie Steed
I am going to focus on loading up on high-end pitchers early. Given the shortened season, there will be less time to catch up on pitching categories with waiver-wire pitchers who pop up through back-of-the-rotation battles. -Connelly Doan
Draft offense early. The 60-game season will create a lot of outlier statistical performances and I want as many early-round hitters as I can get hoping one of them is the guy that goes ballistic and slugs .700 for the season. Pitchers will be more interchangeable than ever in fantasy so it will be imperative to keep up in the offensive categories. -Mike Schwarzenbach
Quantity over quality. With a short season, a Mike Trout having a bad month has less time to right the ship and put up a great season-long line. He has a smaller chance of finishing as a first-round player this year. 6th round players who heat up could finish #1. Take more stabs at hitters early on. Throw more darts at pitchers later. Bank more 5-category players than usual, who will provide a baseline of stats. -Ariel Cohen
Injured/Capped pitchers see a huge change in perceived pre-draft value. They are much more attractive now. The NL adopting the DH is huge as well but there are more injury-prone pitchers who benefit than hitters whose value is significantly altered. -Kev Mahserejian
I am trying to stay away from injury-prone players as they will miss a larger portion of the season if nicked up. My pitcher focus is on ratios and trying to draft pitchers with minimal walk rates. National League starting pitchers are being pushed down slightly due to facing the DH now. -Dave Swan
With the shortened MLB season now implemented, the top-tier starting pitchers are no longer as valuable seeing as they'll only start a maximum of 12 games. Considering a few of these starts will likely be played on a pitch count, wins will become more elusive, and they won't throw enough innings to separate themselves statistically from other hurlers. I won't pay up for an ace in the first two or three rounds in lieu of the shortened season and will target more middle-tier starters and bullpen arms. -Riley Mrack
Players having strong roles out of the gate are worth so much more to me. Whether that be a closer, a rotation spot, leadoff duties, the percentage of time with a leash at the start is weighted. Of course, teams may be more prone to swift change given the playoff windows, but no expanded playoffs should keep that in check. -Nick Mariano
Less emphasis on starting pitching depth, more emphasis on hitters. In a shortened season, while elite SP is still important for ratios, there is going to be less of a difference in overall innings pitched, resulting in lower disparity in pitching counting stats, such as strikeouts. As a result, my emphasis will be focused on grabbing hitters and middle relievers who rack up strikeouts, once the elite pitchers have gone off the board. In leagues where I must start SPs (and cannot insert a reliever into a SP slot), I will round out my roster by playing the waiver wire and streaming SPs strictly based on matchup. -Nick Ritrivi
When it comes to pitching I firmly believe you have to look at pitch counts. Starters who go deep into games can make a big difference when it comes to counting stats. -Michael Simione
I hate to say it, but I'm playing it safe more than usual. Give me the high-floor hitters with a clear starting role and no injury or playing time concerns over volatile, high-ceiling players who could flame out. That's why I'll be owning more shares of Bryan Reynolds than Luis Robert. -Pierre Camus
I'm still imagining my strategy, but as of now, I'm more likely to lean into the risks. If a guy is old and needs rest, I'm more likely to draft him with only 60 games. A pitcher gets hurt every season? I'm more likely to draft him with only 60 games. A young pitcher has never thrown over 70 MLB innings? You get the idea. One or two hot weeks from any player could drastically impact a season, so I'd rather try and get the guys who could explode than the guys who are safe and consistent since they won't have as many games to accrue their stats. We don't have time for the tortoise to win this race. -Eric Samulski
Should fantasy owners punt categories like steals or saves?
No. In a short season, there will not be great disparity between the fantasy teams in first in steals and saves and the fantasy teams in the bottom of the pack in those categories. A strong two or three-day swing in saves and/or steals may greatly impact the standings in those categories (and overall). Additionally, owners should focus on grabbing one or two closers in drafts much earlier than they may have previously done in a "normal" season. With only 60 games to be played, there will be much less chance for closer turnover than we are used to. -Nick Ritrivi
No way, punting to start a season requires a marathon-length grind to wear down your opponents who may have sprinted out to start. If your plan was to punt entirely and never target steals or saves then that's one thing, I suppose this doesn't change that, but giving up on categories in a sprint is just tying weights to your feet. -Nick Mariano
Absolutely not! Chasing down saves may be more difficult though so work the waiver wire early for them. Stolen bases will be harder to find in season. I would suggest balancing your team with multiple hitters that steal bases and not the one-category contributors like Mallex Smith or Dee Gordon. -Dave Swan
I've never been a believer in punting categories, and I don't think I'll start now. If anything, the shorter season will make it harder to catch a team that has somebody like Trea Turner or Ronald Acuna Jr.. Now, that may drive up their price in drafts, and I wouldn't aggressively draft somebody for steals or saves, but I think having an elite asset in that category will be more valuable this year than in year's past. -Eric Samulski
Absolutely punt saves. Relief pitchers will be on a shorter leash than ever before as managers will value each game more than a typical regular-season game. I expect high turnover in the closer role so even if you punt on draft day, you can still fall into some saves throughout the season. -Mike Schwarzenbach
No, every contribution in these categories now become more precious and vital. Grab two good closers in the first 11 rounds or so and nab value plays on steals later, such as Kevin Newman. -Scott Engel
There is no need to punt saves. We know with a fair amount of certainty who the regular closer will be for two-thirds of MLB clubs. I won't spend a top-100 pick on a closer, but I plan to grab an established fireman or two shortly thereafter and then fill out the rest of my bullpen with ratio champs. I'm more likely to avoid speed-only players but if you get the right mix of combo players early on, you don't need to worry about it. A Christian Yelich/Jose Ramirez/Fernando Tatis Jr. start would do the job nicely without sacrificing any category. -Pierre Camus
Normally you can’t do that but in a shortened season it seems pretty viable. You won’t need much in a single category to grab a few points. -Michael Simione
Absolutely not, but saves have to be drafted differently. We're going to see remarkable parity in saves distribution. -Dave Emerick
In a singular league, without an overall champion, punting saves and even wins can be an option. Steals can still be attacked in a draft. -Brian Entrekin
I never advocate for punting categories, and in 2020 it's no different. The end goal hasn't changed in roto leagues, so why change your strategy? We know the same stolen base threats will continue to steal, and while we may see more bullpen committees, the same top-tier relievers should dominate save opportunities for their respective teams. -Riley Mrack
When it comes to the draft, you need to be flexible. If you're lacking in steals, for example, later in the draft, I'd feel much more comfortable in stacking another category rather than reaching or overpaying just for steals. Saves are a different kettle of fish entirely and I'm not one who will pay for saves early in drafts and in a 60-game season, I expect more pitchers to record saves than normal. -Jamie Steed
I don't think so. There is no inherent disadvantage in drafting towards all of the roto scoring categories. One caution though - steals may be down overall. In a typical season, April & May provide more stolen bases than July/August. There may be some players who simply won't run this year. Watch spring training 2.0 very carefully to see who is running and who isn't ... or more importantly - which teams are running. -Ariel Cohen
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