Second Basemen to Target or Avoid at ADP - Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis

Over the years, the second base position has usually been one of the more shallow positions for fantasy purposes. And low and behold, the 2023 season will be no different. But we'll get more into that in just a second. At the top, we have four players being taken inside the top 50 of most fantasy drafts: Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Jazz Chisholm Jr, and Ozzie Albies. This quartet represents tier one and then there's a noticeable dropoff to tier two.

We pretty much know what we're getting out of Altuve, Semien, and Albies at this point, but Chisholm is the fun, shiny new toy at this position that brings a high level of intrigue. Well, at least for 2023 as he's moving to the outfield this season.

Chisholm enjoyed a mini breakout in 2022 with 14 home runs and 12 steals in only 241 plate appearances last season with elite power and speed metrics to back up the performance. Even if he can just hit .250 or so, Chisholm could return solid ROI at his ADP given his 30/30 upside. Just please stay healthy Jazz!

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Second Base Strategy

This is absolutely a position I'm looking to secure before pick 150 or so in my drafts. After the top 10 or so, this position falls off quickly and thoroughly lacks late-round upside plays like many other positions have. There aren't any rookies like Ezequiel Tovar, Oswald Peraza, or Anthony Volpe to target here, so don't even waste your time looking.

If you wait too long, you're going to be stuck with someone like Ketel Marte or Jean Segura as your starter. I'm not even sure I'd be happy with either of them as my middle infielder, let alone my starter at this position. I'm not saying you have to attack this position within the top 50 by grabbing one of the elite tier one options above, but I'd certainly advise having your starter by pick 150 or so.

Second Basemen To Target At ADP

Vaughn Grissom, Atlanta Braves

While he's currently projected to move to shortstop this season in the wake of Dansby Swanson's departure, Vaughn Grissom will have second-base eligibility and he's one of my favorite draft-day value targets this season.

Grissom is one of those "sum of the parts" players that can produce solidly across the board but will likely never stand out in any one area. That's fine by me though, as these types of players often get undervalued in drafts. As it stands today, Grissom is being taken around pick 172 on average in NFBC Draft Champion drafts since January 1st. Yes, please.

Across 227 minor league games, Grissom slashed .315/.402/.465 with 44 doubles, 24 home runs, and 46 steals. He also proved to be one of the tougher hitters to strike out with a measly 13.4% strikeout rate. And despite his time with Atlanta being a roller coaster ride offensively, Grissom still hit .291 with five home runs and five steals in 41 games,

Grissom isn't going to light up his Savant page with red, but the upside to go 15+/15+ with a solid run and RBI totals and an average above .270 is definitely possible. I'm not that worried about Grissom likely hitting in the bottom third of Atlanta's order either. That's where he was slotted last season and he still finished with 150 game paces of 88 runs and 66 RBI.

Hitting low in Atlanta's loaded lineup isn't a bad thing folks. With Grissom's ability to do a bit of everything without hurting you anywhere, along with his eventual dual 2B/SS eligibility, I'll be scooping up plenty of shares at this ADP.

Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

It's funny how one injury can deplete a player's value after years of offensive consistency. In his last three full seasons entering 2022, Muncy hit between .249 and .263 with an OBP of .368 or higher and either 35 or 36 home runs each season.

He had become the "plug him into your lineup and don't worry about him" guy for many fantasy managers. However, a lingering elbow issue limited Muncy in a major way for the first four months of the season, resulting in a disappointing .161/.310/.303 slash line at the end of July. I'm being nice by using "disappointing" too.

However, as Muncy got further away from the injury, he slowly began transforming back into the impactful and consistent performer that we all grew accustomed to over the last several years. The Muncy we saw slash .247/.358/.500 with a .253 ISO over the last two months of the season is the real Muncy and his strong finish to the season has me encouraged that he'll be just fine in 2023.

Even through the ups and downs, Muncy still managed to post a 13.4% barrel rate, 45.6% hard-hit rate, and his usual strong 15.9% walk rate. All of the skills remain and Muncy will have dual 2B and 3B eligibility in most leagues as well. That also means MI and CI eligibility. His being eligible at arguably the two most shallow positions in fantasy baseball this season, along with his metrics and end-of-season performance, makes Muncy a desirable target in the middle round of drafts.

Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels

After many years as a part-time player, Brandon Drury was finally able to stick as a starter in 2022. Between the Reds and Padres, Drury cranked 28 home runs in 568 plate appearances with 87 RBI, 87 runs scored, and a .263/.320/.492 slash line.

Drury was one of only 12 players to hit more than 25 home runs, score more than 85 runs, drive in more than 85 runs, and hit above .260 last season. The other 11 names all have ADPs well inside the top 100 with 10 of those 11 inside the top 50 overall ADP. Now, I'm not saying Drury will take a major step forward this season, but his ADP around pick 200 seems very reasonable given what he did last season. According to the Razzball Player Rater, Drury finished as the 50th most-valuable player in 2022.

Some may look at the splits between what he did with the Reds and what he did with the Padres and be quick to say that he performed well due to Great American Ballpark. Yes, the ballpark certainly helped as Drury slashed .298/.354/.561 there last season, but there are several metrics that have me encouraged for 2022. To start, Drury posted a 10.4% barrel rate and 42.2% hard contact rate last season along with better-than-league average marks in strikeout rate, zone contact rate, and whiff rate. NONE of these have anything to do with Great American Ballpark.

Even if you factor in some regression for Drury this season, .250/75/25/75 is definitely possible. And when you factor in the fact that he has eligibility at first base, second base, and third base this season, that makes him a great target around his pick-200 ADP. That flexibility adds to his value as you can plug him in at those three spots along with MI and CI.

Other ADP Value Targets: Ozzie Albies, Brandon Lowe, Gavin Lux, Bryson Stott, Nick Gordon, Michael Massey, Nico Hoerner (Once he gains eligibility in April)

Second Basemen To Avoid At ADP

There's actually not a glaring option at this position that stands out as a player to avoid, but there are several I'm steering away from for one reason or another.

Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs (Playing Time)

Morel certainly had his hot stretches last season, but the approach and playing time are major red flags this season. A few that immediately stand out are his 32.2% strikeout rate, 38.3% whiff rate, and a putrid 65.2% zone contact rate.

I'm pretty sure even I could have a better zone contact rate. Okay, obviously I'm kidding, but you catch my drift. On top of that, Morel doesn't appear to have a starting job entering the season with Nico Hoerner at second base, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, Patrick Wisdom at the hot corner, and the trio of Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ patrolling the outfield.

Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians (Don't Love the Value)

I'm not saying that Andrés Giménez isn't a solid fantasy contributor, because he definitely is. I'm just not a fan of his ADP this season. The one area I'm not questioning is speed. Giménez swiped 20 bags last season with a 94th-percentile sprint speed and should have no issues doing it again, especially with the bigger bases.

However, I'm expecting him to take a slight step back with the bat. Giménez's .257 xBA was 40 points below his actual average and he also posted a 79.6% zone contact rate which is below league average and had posted a chase rate above 38% in each of the last two seasons. With a step back in average and possibly power as well, Giménez's top 85 ADP just doesn't appeal to me. I'd rather have Hoerner, Muncy, Grissom, or Gleyber Torres later.

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (Health and Performance)

While the approach and hard-hit rate both remain solid, Ketel Marte hasn't really been overly impactful in fantasy leagues outside of his breakout 2019 season when he hit .329 with 32 home runs.

Outside of that season, he's never exceeded 70 runs, 15 home runs, or 60 RBI in a season. Marte has also only played in 70% of Arizona's games over the last three seasons. The 210 ADP isn't terrible, but I just don't want Marte on any of my teams this season.