Fantasy Baseball Risers Post-Free Agency

December 30, 2021

Ben Rosener identifies players whose fantasy baseball value rose in the offseason due to free agent deals. These players could be undervalued draft sleepers in 2022.

With all the free-agent signings and trades that happened prior to the lockout, plenty has changed ahead of the 2022 season where the fantasy landscape is concerned. The impact of new acquisitions will certainly be felt in fantasy drafts next spring.

Corey Knebel, for instance, could see a significant number of save opportunities in Philadelphia next summer for the Phillies. Andrew Heaney is an intriguing breakout pick provided he can turn things around with the Dodgers. Mark Melancon will continue to see the bulk of his team’s save opportunities, although this time it’ll be in an Arizona Diamondbacks uniform and not a San Diego Padres uniform.

But the impact goes beyond the initial signings and trade acquisitions as well. It could be as simple as a starting pitcher potentially getting much more run support and wins thanks to a suddenly improved lineup, or a departure opening up consistent playing time for a promising young player or prospect. Whatever the case, you’ll want to keep these players in mind for drafts between now and the spring. Their respective fantasy values have risen considerably thanks to the work done by their respective front offices in adding players.

Robbie Grossman and Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers

An improved lineup is a tide that raises all boats in fantasy, and that’s essentially the case here, especially for a pair of players who get on base at such a high rate. Detroit’s lineup should be markedly better next season, and it’ll only help two of the team’s most productive holdovers.

Grossman and Candelario are veritable on-base threats, as both have topped a .350 on-base percentage in each of the last two seasons.

Grossman, in part due to his 20 stolen-base campaign in 2021, was the more productive of the duo for fantasy purposes last season, but both didn’t quite reach the ceiling they could’ve in fantasy without significant lineup depth behind them. At times, Detroit’s lineup fell off a bit from a depth standpoint after Grossman, Candelario, and Jonathan Schoop when Miguel Cabrera, Akil Baddoo, and Eric Haase struggled.

Now, with Javier Baez in town, more potential free-agent additions on the position player side of things, and Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene likely to debut at some point, Detroit’s lineup looks considerably deeper and more potent.

Even if you don’t play in a league with on-base percentage as part of the scoring, the fact that Grossman and Candelario get on base at an above-average rate should lead to plenty more run-scoring and RBI opportunities in an improved lineup. It’s particularly key for Grossman with his ability to steal bases. Javier Baez has a real shot at his first 100 RBI in a season since 2018, and there’s a fairly decent chance he’ll be driving in Grossman and Candelario on many of those occasions.

Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers

At times in the past, Gonsolin seemed to be on the outside looking in of the Dodgers rotation.

Gonsolin has never made more than 13 starts in a season at the Major League season, but he could be in line to shatter that number next season with Max Scherzer in New York and Clayton Kershaw currently a free agent.

Granted, the Dodgers could still make rotation additions, but their rotation options as of now include just Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Gonsolin, and David Price. Dustin May could return later in the season as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery, but as of right now, those four are Los Angeles’ most established starters.

Gonsolin has always shown promise, but he could be in line to make good on that promise in a season-long sample size in 2022. And when he does, you’ll probably want him on your fantasy team.

Since the start of 2019, when Gonsolin debuted, his career Major League numbers look like a starter’s workload in a single season. A quality starter’s numbers at that.

Tony Gonsolin since 2019: 142.1 innings pitched, 2.85 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 9.46 K/9, 3.54 BB/9.

Granted those are spread out over parts of three seasons, but if the 27-year-old’s lifetime numbers are anything to go by, he’ll be just fine next season.

He’s also pitching on a team that has won at least 91 games in every full season dating back to 2012. That should mean plenty of potential wins for Gonsolin, regardless of what the team does the rest of the offseason.

Despite losing Scherzer and Corey Seager in free agency, the Dodgers’ roster still features Buehler, Urias, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, and Blake Treinen.

They’re still going to be good and Gonsolin should benefit from that.

Vidal Brujan, Tampa Bay Rays

Long one of the game’s more promising infield prospects, Brujan finally made his Major League debut last season, appearing in 10 games and registering 26 plate appearances.

That he collected just two hits in those plate appearances doesn’t matter all that much.

What does matter is that Brujan has immense upside at the plate and that he’ll have considerably more opportunities on a Rays team that has shed some of its considerable depth.

Brujan started the season ranked as FanGraphs’ 24th-best prospect on the site’s ranking of the top 133 prospects league-wide, ahead of the likes of Casey Mize, Spencer Howard, Michael Kopech, Logan Gilbert, Nick Madrigal, and Jazz Chisholm.

FanGraphs’ in-season update to their The Board prospect list saw Brujan rank 12th among all MLB prospects. Per the same publication, the 23-year-old’s hit-tool currently has a 50 grade on it (on the 20-80 scale, with 80 being truly elite), and his speed draws a 70 grade.

He hasn’t been afraid to use that speed either. Brujan has reached double-digit steals at each minor league stop he’s made dating back to 2017, including 44 last season for Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate. In fact, he’s stolen a combined 147 bases in his last three minor league seasons.

If the 23-year-old can contribute with quality batting averages and stolen base numbers, something that certainly isn’t out of the question early given his upside and ability, he’ll have plenty of fantasy value next season.

That’s also in part due to the fact that he could, you know, actually play regularly in Tampa Bay.

That he has experience playing second base, shortstop, third base, left field, center field, and right field doesn’t hurt either playing for a Rays organization that notoriously likes to move players around the diamond.

But, the Rays also moved on from some of their infield depth this winter, dealing Joey Wendle to Miami and Mike Brosseau to Milwaukee. They also dealt outfielder and first baseman Jordan Luplow to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Even with Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe still around, Brujan has a chance to start regularly in Tampa Bay.

And that’s without mentioning the outfield.

Luplow was dealt and if any of Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, or Austin Meadows are also moved via trade once the lockout ends, Brujan could see time in the outfield as well.

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