Fantasy Baseball Outfield ADP Report - Draft Targets and Avoids (2025)

Welcome back RotoBallers! Today we'll be taking a look at the outfield position, and examining early NFBC ADP data to identify outfield draft targets and avoids. We will soon find ourselves on the cusp of the 2025 fantasy baseball draft season. Mainstream sites like CBS and Yahoo have recently opened their doors to the next fantasy season, but there are sites out there where the fantasy season has no end. NFBC is renowned as a leader in high-stakes fantasy sports, where the next season's drafts begin almost as soon as the last season closes.

Jumping into a fantasy baseball league before pitchers and catchers report might be too early for some players, but there is insight to be gained from the early birds. Taking a look at NFBC fantasy baseball ADP reports can give the rest of us an idea of what to expect when it comes time for the rest of us to draft in February and March.

In this column, I’ll focus on outfielders and point out my favorites at cost and some that I will likely fade. We've compiled this ADP data from NFBC Draft Champion drafts. You'll find the outfied ADP table below, along with my analysis of the ADP at the outfield position, player values I like/dislike, etc. Reminder: this report doesn't reflect my personal rankings but instead breaks down how the early draft market values these outfielders for 2025 fantasy baseball leagues.

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A Note On NFBC ADPs

When looking at average draft positions taken from NFBC, there are a couple of caveats to keep in mind. First of all, most NFBC leagues carry 15 teams. Secondly, NFBC’s team structure demands five starting outfielders. This means that, at minimum, twice as many outfielders are drafted in an NFBC draft compared to a run-of-the-mill draft on Yahoo, with just 12 teams that start three outfielders.

These early ADPs are a good reference point when you start prepping for your own drafts, but you will have to make some adjustments to expectations based on your league’s settings.

Outfield Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Outfielders To Target Based On Early ADP

Jackson Merrill - San Diego Padres (28.48)

The elite production brought to the table by the top 10 outfielders in 2025 makes grabbing one of them in the first two rounds a priority for me. If my best laid plans go awry, I like Jackson Merrill as my first outfielder.

The runner-up to Paul Skenes in the National League’s Rookie of the Year voting, Merrill put up a solid fantasy line of 26 home runs, 77 runs, 90 RBI, 16 stolen bases, and a .292 batting average. His ATC projections are similar to those of Jackson Chourio and Jarren Duran, who are going six to 10 picks ahead of Merrill.

The Top-10 rookie seasons from the last decade ranked by wRC+ (min 500 PA).

Jackson Merrill cracked the Top-10.
Aaron Judge's 2017 is first by a mile. pic.twitter.com/icTlKAsOr6

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) November 5, 2024

Michael Harris II - Atlanta Braves (38.76)

Similar to Merrill, I see Michael Harris as an insurance policy if I fumble in the opening rounds and don’t secure a top-10 outfielder. Harris does carry injury risk, but his production, despite the missed time, is tempting. Since turning pro in 2022, Harris has flirted with a 20/20 season each year and topped a .290 batting average twice.

Harris should open the season hitting in the top of the Braves’ order as he did towards the end of 2024. This will boost his run and RBI totals, and he will again be a strong contributor to a fantasy team’s batting average.

Ian Happ - Chicago Cubs (127.89)
Randy Arozarena - Seattle Mariners (129.35)
Mike Trout - Los Angeles Angels (129.90)

This trio goes back-to-back-to-back, according to NFBC’s ADP. Happ comes into 2025 off of consecutive seasons with at least 86 runs, 84 RBI, and 13 steals. He also has three 20-HR seasons in his last four. Arozarena has been a model of consistency, logging four consecutive 20/20 seasons going back to 2021. He makes for a good second outfielder as long as his ever-decreasing batting average is balanced out.

Mike Trout had another season cut short by injury in 2024. Last year, he appeared in just 29 games, but in that time, he mashed 10 home runs and even managed to steal six bags. The risk with Trout is real, but when healthy, few other ballplayers can do what he does at the plate.

ATC projects a 28-HR season for Trout and I’ll be pushing myself to take the gamble as there are scant amount of players left after him with that kind of power potential.

Mike Trout is a “value” relative to past seasons.

He is going around the 140-150 pick range in early drafts BUT he has only eclipsed 82 games played ONCE since 2021

In that one season he played 119 games and hit 40 home runs. Very few hitters can do that

He’s come out… https://t.co/ofPqOfs5Wb

— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) November 12, 2024

Taylor Ward - Los Angeles Angels (186.41)

Taylor Ward rose to relevance in 2022, belting 23 home runs with a .281 average and racking up a combined 138 runs and RBI. Ward was tracking for a repeat performance in 2023 before a pitch to the face ended his season in late July. Last year, he got back in the groove, hitting 25 homers and logging 75 runs and RBI each.

Ward has good plate discipline, a strong bat, and will hit in the top third of the Angels’ order. His ATC projections are similar to Bryan Reynolds but can be had almost 100 picks later in drafts.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Arizona Diamondbacks (219.66)

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is one of the players I’m writing down on a sticky note and attaching to my computer screen on draft day. Inconsistent playing time early in his career and regular visits to the IL since his debut in 2018 have affected his fantasy production and cheapened his value. Gurriel makes great contact, though, and is a great source for batting average late in drafts.

Since being traded to Arizona in 2022, he has logged 147 runs-plus-RBI in consecutive seasons and can do the same in 2025, as he will likely be hitting in the top half of the order along with Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Josh Naylor.

Outfielders To Fade Based On Early ADP

Wyatt Langford - Texas Rangers (50.03)
James Wood - Washington Nationals (51.18)

Wyatt Langford and James Wood are exciting, fun players to watch and should be for years to come. Their inclusion as fades has less to do with my faith in them as fantasy assets and more about the surrounding selections. Many of the game’s top starting pitchers and closers are going in the same range as these two and it is when I plan on starting to build out that side of my roster.

According to ATC, both have 20/20 potential and project for a shade under 80 runs and RBI each, with a .261 batting average. They are not bad selections at the price, but simply not where I’m shopping for outfield help, assuming I’ve already taken one of the top 10 or 11.

Brenton Doyle - Colorado Rockies (77.40)

Brenton Doyle broke out in 2024, hitting 23 home runs and racking up 82 runs, 72 RBI, and 30 steals to go with a .260 batting average. A significant portion of his stats came from a power surge in July that supplied 11 of his homers and 27 RBI.

He also hit significantly better at his home park (surprise, surprise) than on the road, with a difference in batting average and BABIP of almost 100 points and an OPS split of .900 to .636. I’ll pass on Doyle when Seiya Suzuki, Bryan Reynolds, and Anthony Santander are still going 10 to 20 picks later.

#Rockies Brenton Doyle broke out in 2024, slashing a .260/.317/.446 with 23 HR & 30 SB. 🚀

He placed in the 94th percentile for sprint speed and posted a solid .329 xwOBA & .437 xSLG. 🤔

Are you IN or OUT on Doyle at his 79.3 ADP on @TheReal_NFC? ⚾📈 #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/wO983NAC8j

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 13, 2025

Riley Greene - Detroit Tigers (108.84)

Like Langford and Wood, I like Riley Greene and will enjoy watching him level up in the coming years. And like Langford and Wood, he lands in line with several starting pitchers that might make for more prudent investments at cost. Greene is projected to repeat his 2024 and obtain another 20-HR season with around 150 runs and RBI and a batting average above .260.

He can help you in a lot of ways, but I would instead take a pitcher at his price and pick up similar production from the aforementioned Taylor Ward 80 picks down the board.

Lane Thomas - Cleveland Guardians (171.47)

Lane Thomas rakes against left-handed pitching but can’t get a handle on righties. In his career, he is a .302 hitter against southpaws but has a .223 average against right-handers, and his OPS dips a full 200 points from .880 to .680. Thomas could push for another 30-steal season but I don’t like taking a shot on him as he could easily wind up on the wrong side of a platoon.

If I’m shopping for steals late in the draft, I’ll look at Tommy Edman (who had a pronounced L/R split in 2024 but is more balanced for his career), Victor Robles, or perhaps Jake McCarthy, all of whom can be nabbed well after Thomas is gone.

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