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Tommy Bell takes a deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers that are off to a surprisingly strong first two months of their 2024 campaigns.
It's wild to believe we are two months into the MLB and fantasy baseball season already. As summer weather starts to set in, starting pitchers with negative regression signs will need to work extra hard to prove their strong starts are worthy of a roster spot all season long.
A few starters have held on to their strong starts much longer than anyone could have anticipated. In particular, Tyler Anderson, Trevor Williams, and Cal Quantrill continue to produce results for their respective struggling teams and grateful fantasy managers, but it still feels like their questionable track records could send them crashing back down to earth at any moment.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire, with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
46% Rostered
Despite a low strikeout rate and at least two walks in eight of his 10 starts, Anderson sports a 2.52 ERA with five wins on the young season. The 34-year-old veteran has dropped his HR/FB rate almost two percentage points in 2024, and his ground-ball rate is up nearly 5 percent from a brutal 2023 season. That's about where the good stuff ends, though... on the surface.
Digging deeper, Anderson has red flags all over his analytical profile, starting with a very low .209 BABIP, which is almost 100 points lower than his 2023 number. Pair that with an 84.5% LOB%, and you're looking at a pitcher who has been walking the proverbial tight rope in almost all 10 of his starts this year.
While a few more batted balls have been on the ground, Anderson's hard-hit percentage is actually four points higher this year than last, which suggests even more that some negative regression is coming soon. In fact, that regression monster may have already struck in the form of the New York Yankees offense on Wednesday evening, depending on when you're reading this.
Without much change to the pitch mix, very little improvement in the strikeout category, walk issues aplenty, and dangerous regression signs all over the place, it's safe to say that Anderson will have some bumpy outings sooner rather than later. I would not feel safe starting him outside of fantastic lefty split situations against bottom-five offenses.
Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals
39% Rostered
It feels strange to write about the early-season success of a starting pitcher who has reached the six-inning mark just once in his 10 starts, but here we are. Williams is rocking a very low 2.29 ERA with four wins and ZERO losses. He's allowed just two home runs in his 51 innings, and he's walked just 14 in that span... and the right-hander has just one quality start.
So, what's the bad news? Not much, honestly!
Trevor Williams has allowed 1 ER or less in 6 of his last 7 starts.pic.twitter.com/zMESQ0auYe
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) May 25, 2024
Williams has increased his strikeout rate in large part to an increase in his changeup usage. That's also led to more ground balls, which, as I've already mentioned, helps lower his home-run rate. Better command is clear because the walks are down. I suppose if there's any gripe to be had, it's not that he's not going six innings consistently. However, the Nationals will likely start to let him push 100 pitches more often as we move through the summer, and that should allow the 32-year-old to accrue more quality starts if he keeps his ERA around 3.00.
A .275 BABIP does allow for some negative regression to creep in and a few more homers are surely coming, but there's a TON to like with Williams and it all feels pretty legitimate. I don't feel comfortable enough to start him in Atlanta on Thursday, but most other matchups would have me intrigued at the moment.
In fact, I think I'll go pick up the right-hander in my deep 12-team roto league right now! I suggest you do the same while you still can. At the very least, play the matchups and see what happens!
Cal Quantrill, Colorado Rockies
19% Rostered
Quantrill has the least eye-popping numbers of the group, but we have to take them with a grain of salt when we consider that about half of his starts will be in the hitter's haven of Coors Field. Even still, a 3.53 ERA with four wins on this poor Rockies team is something to note, especially when his road ERA drops nicely to 3.38.
Regardless of whether you play in a daily or weekly fantasy baseball league, you're going to want to avoid starting the right-hander in his home park. That being said, it's much more effective to analyze him on the road rather than breaking down his numbers all together. That's where Quantrill starts to get interesting.
The 29-year-old's strikeout rate jumps nearly 2 percent when he pitches away from Coors Field, and his xFIP drops down to 3.83 as opposed to 4.46 at home. It's clear that he's able to better control his arsenal away from the high elevation of Denver, and the results are more strikeouts and ground balls and less walks and home runs. That's a good combination.
The former first-round pick is also throwing more than twice as many splitters this year as compared to 2023 when he first introduced the pitch. That's a pitch that may be negatively affected by higher elevation, too, which helps explains the jump in strikeouts on the road.
Cal Quantrill's 7th K pic.twitter.com/3G3FoCRLFT
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2024
All in all, it's hard to get SUPER excited about a Colorado pitcher, considering you'll be lucky to start him in half of his outings each year. However, a strong pitch adjustment, a reasonable LOB% and xFIP, and clear splits in his home and away performances makes Quantrill an intriguing add at the very least. The former 15-game winner in Cleveland is still young enough to find that spark again, especially for managers who can commit to starting him exclusively in away parks.
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