Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: Scouting Insights From A Pitching Coach

March 25, 2023

Scott Engel delivers his analysis on exclusive fantasy baseball insider insights from a pitching coach.

Welcome back to our annual Fantasy Baseball Insider series on RotoBaller.com, where we take you inside Major League Baseball clubhouses, press boxes, and front offices for exclusive insights that provide a completely unique edge on the competition. We give you an all-access pass to information and takes, along with comprehensive Fantasy breakdowns.

On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, coaches, scouts, and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott Engel supplies his fantasy baseball analysis on their commentaries. These reports contain perspectives from the most established experts on the game.

The Fantasy Baseball Insider series has won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for best Fantasy Baseball Series. Scott was also a finalist for the 2021 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Award, as the nomination recognized his work on the Insider Series. In this edition, we share observations from a former Major League pitcher who is now a pitching coach that mainly focuses on the National League East. The pitching coach’s comments are in italics.

Ranger Suarez

“He got hot at the right time last year. The 29 starts were the most that he has made. I think he can ride that wave of confidence and continue to perform at that level. It was fun watching him down the stretch and in the playoffs.

“He started using his curveball more. He started using his cutter more than his slider and that adjustment was made because his slider was too much like his curveball in the way it was moving. Using that cutter/curve combination was that difference-maker for him.”

“The first two months, he threw sliders over 10 percent of the time, and by July, it was 1.7 percent or less. In October and November, it was zero percent. He decided he was not going to get hurt with his fifth-best pitch. He can move the ball around the strike zone and he can use mostly sinkers and a four-seam fastball for effect around the zone. The change-up, of course, is his biggest weapon.”

Go Go Power Ranger 🔋

Ranger Suarez tosses a 4-hit shutout on just 97 pitches 🤯 pic.twitter.com/sJF7gjReVg

— MLB (@MLB) September 25, 2021

Engel’s Insider Angles: Suarez is dealing with a forearm issue that may keep him out for a brief period at the start of the season, but I was still targeting him at an NFBC Average Draft Position of 333.9 or as a one-dollar or reserve round option in auction drafts. Suarez did see the K% drop from 25.6 to 19.5 last season. He had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.82 xFIP.

In his last 13 starts of the regular season, though, Suarez had a 2.36 ERA and an OBA of .227 or lower in the final three months. Suarez pitched to a 1.23 ERA in the postseason, and after walking five in his first playoff start, he only walked one in his next four. He allowed nine hits and struck out 13 in 14.2 postseason innings pitched.

Suarez obviously finished strong last season and he is a value play as a back-end fantasy starter in 2023.

Spencer Strider

“Stuff-wise and makeup wise I think he can repeat what he did last year. He’s very confident. My biggest thing for him is to stay away from making headlines and becoming a target. It’s very difficult to continue backing it up year after year. It takes a special breed, and maybe he is that guy.“

“There have been a lot of guys who have come and gone after having nice seasons and weren’t able to back it up. But ultimately he has the stuff and the makeup and the Braves want him to be that front-line superstar. He is one of those exciting young pitchers to watch."

"Any time you are not just touching 100 mph with your fastball and able to pitch off of that with two other plus pitches, you’re going to be someone that is difficult to square up.  His focus is on dominance.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Most notably, Strider talked some trash to the Mets last year, and opponents might want to shut him up when he does. But that should not steer any fantasy players away from him as the fifth pitcher off the board, according to NFBC Average Draft Positions. As this pitching coach indicated, everything he sees on the mound is authentic in terms of Strider’s effectiveness.

Last season, Strider’s xFIP of .2.30 was even lower than his ERA of 2.67. The xERA was also at 2.39, which was in the top 3 percent of MLB, according to baseballsavant.com. His xBA of .179 was in the top three percent and the xSLG of .279 was in the top four percent. There is nothing apparent from such stats that would indicate Strider is headed for a big fall-off.

Jesus Luzardo

“You’re talking about a guy who gets in the upper range of velocity at only 25 years old. He’s got the stuff, but he hasn’t fully turned the corner. You hope he has learned through some of his struggles. He can’t continue to have so many bases on balls and misses over the middle of the plate.“

“All that said, in 18 games, he had lower than a 3.50 ERA, so that’s nothing to scoff at. I think you’re expecting more from a young pitcher who showed some promise. I don’t think we’ll see the breakout year as of yet. It’s not an easy place to pitch in Miami. But when he was pitching in Oakland it was kind of the same thing. You’re performing in front of an empty venue. He’s going to have to find an inner way to maintain the energy level.”

“Pitching in front of a crowd gives you a little extra. You signed up to pitch in front of big crowds in big stadiums. But when it’s an empty big stadium and it echoes and you can hear every little thing, some guys cannot focus nearly as well. You think that the comfort of being in Miami would be a good thing, but players have talked about that for years.”

He had a nice season last year but it was a small sample size, and I don’t know if he can sustain that sort of ERA. He’s not yet ready to make that jump. Stuff-wise, he has shown flashes of brilliance, but I don’t know if he’s ready to sustain that.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: I tend not to overlook intangibles when evaluating players for fantasy purposes whenever possible. Considering the source of such commentary, the environment can’t be discounted as a minor possible detrimental factor.

Health has often been the primary concern for Luzardo, and our source here is not convinced that he can build on last year, despite a 3.11 xFIP and 3.39 xERA. Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections outline a 3.81 ERA, a 25.8 K%, and 8.9 BB% for Luzardo.

As the 58th pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts, Luzardo seems to be an upside pick with some concerns, and taking Jeffrey Springs or Chris Bassitt in that range might be safer routes to consider.

Trevor Rogers

“I don’t know if he can get back to that one promising year that he had. You look at 2021, he had the 2.64 ERA, and everything else has been over 5.00 and inconsistent. He had an All-Star caliber year and was second in Rookie of the Year voting, and then there was nothing last year that showed he is that same guy. When you’re a top dog, people start game planning more and looking at what you do to be successful.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Rogers has performed well in spring training, and NFBC players are still willing to take the shot on him as the 89th pitcher off the board. His xFIP of 4.11 and a 66.9 percent strand rate do point to some rebound potential, but not at his 2021 levels.

Last season, opposing hitters batted .312 with an xBA of .300 against Rogers’ four-seamer, and he will have to adjust accordingly to get back on a path to respectability.

Kodai Senga

“He is working with two Cy Young winners and Hall of Famers. In my experience, most pitchers who come over from Japan do their own thing. They are usually the top dog where they came from. But he knows right away he wants to soak up as much as he can from Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander because of what they have done throughout their careers.”

"I’ve seen him already act as a sponge and just learn more and adapt his game right away, even to the pitch clock. The tempo of Major League Baseball is a little different than Japan. I also just think the pure stuff and people not knowing him can be advantages. It’s one thing to watch him on video than to face him in the box.“

"He has the ability to pound the strike zone, and if he cuts down on his walks, it will be a big difference-maker for him, and he will have tremendous success. April be a big testing period to see if most hitters will lay off his ghost forkball with two strikes. In this day and age, because these guys don’t care as much about striking out anymore, they will take those hacks.”

"He can take advantage of a pitch coming in and looking like a fastball and then just bottoming out. You take advantage of that aggressiveness, as hitters who will try and slap the ball the other way are few and far between.

"Being that they haven’t seen much of the ghost forkball, they might see a lot of it once they start swinging at it. But he is not a one-trick pony and he does not have to go to the ghost forkball every time, either.”

“He’s able to locate and command that fastball on both sides of the plate, up and down. He can have a lot of success in the middle of that rotation. I say he will win 12 games with a 3.70 ERA. I am looking at some Tajiuan Walker type of numbers with more upside in that first year.”

Solid day for @KodaiSenga 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7CpNaT06ca

— New York Mets (@Mets) March 22, 2023

Engel’s Insider Angles: We obviously don’t have anything significant to work off statistically yet, but this source and others I have spoken to this spring strongly believe Senga’s stuff will translate well to MLB.

His willingness to absorb pointers and information from Scherzer and Verlander can help ease the transition. I like Senga a lot as the 72nd pitcher being taken in the NFBC and was very happy to get him for seven dollars in the Tout Wars mixed auction.

For the record, Walker had a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, but I am expecting better than his 20.3 K% from Senga, as ATC projections have him at 25.6.

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander

“Certain things are consistent and timeless. With all the fancy watches that are out there, you don’t scoff at a Rolex. You know what it is, you know what you’re going to get. I believe it’s not a fluke that Verlander came back from Tommy John surgery and had a career year. He became much more consistent and efficient at what he was able to do.”

“These aren’t the young kids trying to overpower people. They aren’t trying to make a name for themselves. These are two guys who are looking to do something special as teammates. They will push each other and also pat each other on the back, with a goal to win a World Series in New York. These guys have been pretty spectacular in maintaining their form health-wise throughout the years.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: This a simple message for those fantasy players who may have some minor concerns about the ages of the Mets’ two top starters: Don’t look for negatives when there are not any apparent significant concerns.

As Mets SNY analyst Jerry Blevins recently said to me, Father Time is undefeated, but he still expects strong seasons out of Scherzer and Verlander.  The two of them are trying to finish off their careers with the flourish of winning a World Series together in New York and know how to pace themselves by this point in their careers.

The Phillies’ Closer Situation

“I am going with Craig Kimbrel until he breaks. That’s the reason they went out and got him, to be the closer. I like Seranthony Dominguez, don’t get me wrong. He’s had that experience and done well, but he’s not comparable to Kimbrel as a closer. You do have Dominguez to go to if Kimbrel is off or injured."

I go with Kimbrel due to his complete body of work. He’s bounced around the last few years but now he is in a place knowing that this team went to the World Series and went out to get him. I still think he has the stuff.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Despite a big tumble in his strikeout rate last season (42.2 to a career-low 27.7 percent) and ultimately losing his grip on the closer’s job in Los Angeles, Kimbrel still is the most proven option the Phillies have. It’s not impossible for him to function as a solid, but less dominant fireman than he was in the past in 2023.

Opponents hit .259 against Kibrel's four-seamer last season, after hitting .180 against it in 2021. The xBA against the featured pitch was .199, though. Philadelphia has not named a firm closer for the 2023 season, but Kimbrel knows what it takes to succeed in the role and he is a viable bounce-back candidate for a respectable season with a low fantasy investment (116th pitcher off the board).

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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