X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: Scouting Insights From A Pitching Coach

Ranger Suarez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Scott Engel delivers his analysis on exclusive fantasy baseball insider insights from a pitching coach.

Welcome back to our annual Fantasy Baseball Insider series on RotoBaller.com, where we take you inside Major League Baseball clubhouses, press boxes, and front offices for exclusive insights that provide a completely unique edge on the competition. We give you an all-access pass to information and takes, along with comprehensive Fantasy breakdowns.

On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, coaches, scouts, and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott Engel supplies his fantasy baseball analysis on their commentaries. These reports contain perspectives from the most established experts on the game.

The Fantasy Baseball Insider series has won the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s award for best Fantasy Baseball Series. Scott was also a finalist for the 2021 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Award, as the nomination recognized his work on the Insider Series. In this edition, we share observations from a former Major League pitcher who is now a pitching coach that mainly focuses on the National League East. The pitching coach’s comments are in italics.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Ranger Suarez

“He got hot at the right time last year. The 29 starts were the most that he has made. I think he can ride that wave of confidence and continue to perform at that level. It was fun watching him down the stretch and in the playoffs.

“He started using his curveball more. He started using his cutter more than his slider and that adjustment was made because his slider was too much like his curveball in the way it was moving. Using that cutter/curve combination was that difference-maker for him.”

“The first two months, he threw sliders over 10 percent of the time, and by July, it was 1.7 percent or less. In October and November, it was zero percent. He decided he was not going to get hurt with his fifth-best pitch. He can move the ball around the strike zone and he can use mostly sinkers and a four-seam fastball for effect around the zone. The change-up, of course, is his biggest weapon.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Suarez is dealing with a forearm issue that may keep him out for a brief period at the start of the season, but I was still targeting him at an NFBC Average Draft Position of 333.9 or as a one-dollar or reserve round option in auction drafts. Suarez did see the K% drop from 25.6 to 19.5 last season. He had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.82 xFIP.

In his last 13 starts of the regular season, though, Suarez had a 2.36 ERA and an OBA of .227 or lower in the final three months. Suarez pitched to a 1.23 ERA in the postseason, and after walking five in his first playoff start, he only walked one in his next four. He allowed nine hits and struck out 13 in 14.2 postseason innings pitched.

Suarez obviously finished strong last season and he is a value play as a back-end fantasy starter in 2023.

 

Spencer Strider

“Stuff-wise and makeup wise I think he can repeat what he did last year. He’s very confident. My biggest thing for him is to stay away from making headlines and becoming a target. It’s very difficult to continue backing it up year after year. It takes a special breed, and maybe he is that guy.“

“There have been a lot of guys who have come and gone after having nice seasons and weren’t able to back it up. But ultimately he has the stuff and the makeup and the Braves want him to be that front-line superstar. He is one of those exciting young pitchers to watch."

"Any time you are not just touching 100 mph with your fastball and able to pitch off of that with two other plus pitches, you’re going to be someone that is difficult to square up.  His focus is on dominance.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Most notably, Strider talked some trash to the Mets last year, and opponents might want to shut him up when he does. But that should not steer any fantasy players away from him as the fifth pitcher off the board, according to NFBC Average Draft Positions. As this pitching coach indicated, everything he sees on the mound is authentic in terms of Strider’s effectiveness.

Last season, Strider’s xFIP of .2.30 was even lower than his ERA of 2.67. The xERA was also at 2.39, which was in the top 3 percent of MLB, according to baseballsavant.com. His xBA of .179 was in the top three percent and the xSLG of .279 was in the top four percent. There is nothing apparent from such stats that would indicate Strider is headed for a big fall-off.

 

Jesus Luzardo

“You’re talking about a guy who gets in the upper range of velocity at only 25 years old. He’s got the stuff, but he hasn’t fully turned the corner. You hope he has learned through some of his struggles. He can’t continue to have so many bases on balls and misses over the middle of the plate.“

“All that said, in 18 games, he had lower than a 3.50 ERA, so that’s nothing to scoff at. I think you’re expecting more from a young pitcher who showed some promise. I don’t think we’ll see the breakout year as of yet. It’s not an easy place to pitch in Miami. But when he was pitching in Oakland it was kind of the same thing. You’re performing in front of an empty venue. He’s going to have to find an inner way to maintain the energy level.”

“Pitching in front of a crowd gives you a little extra. You signed up to pitch in front of big crowds in big stadiums. But when it’s an empty big stadium and it echoes and you can hear every little thing, some guys cannot focus nearly as well. You think that the comfort of being in Miami would be a good thing, but players have talked about that for years.”

He had a nice season last year but it was a small sample size, and I don’t know if he can sustain that sort of ERA. He’s not yet ready to make that jump. Stuff-wise, he has shown flashes of brilliance, but I don’t know if he’s ready to sustain that.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: I tend not to overlook intangibles when evaluating players for fantasy purposes whenever possible. Considering the source of such commentary, the environment can’t be discounted as a minor possible detrimental factor.

Health has often been the primary concern for Luzardo, and our source here is not convinced that he can build on last year, despite a 3.11 xFIP and 3.39 xERA. Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections outline a 3.81 ERA, a 25.8 K%, and 8.9 BB% for Luzardo.

As the 58th pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts, Luzardo seems to be an upside pick with some concerns, and taking Jeffrey Springs or Chris Bassitt in that range might be safer routes to consider.

 

Trevor Rogers

“I don’t know if he can get back to that one promising year that he had. You look at 2021, he had the 2.64 ERA, and everything else has been over 5.00 and inconsistent. He had an All-Star caliber year and was second in Rookie of the Year voting, and then there was nothing last year that showed he is that same guy. When you’re a top dog, people start game planning more and looking at what you do to be successful.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Rogers has performed well in spring training, and NFBC players are still willing to take the shot on him as the 89th pitcher off the board. His xFIP of 4.11 and a 66.9 percent strand rate do point to some rebound potential, but not at his 2021 levels.

Last season, opposing hitters batted .312 with an xBA of .300 against Rogers’ four-seamer, and he will have to adjust accordingly to get back on a path to respectability.

 

Kodai Senga

“He is working with two Cy Young winners and Hall of Famers. In my experience, most pitchers who come over from Japan do their own thing. They are usually the top dog where they came from. But he knows right away he wants to soak up as much as he can from Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander because of what they have done throughout their careers.”

"I’ve seen him already act as a sponge and just learn more and adapt his game right away, even to the pitch clock. The tempo of Major League Baseball is a little different than Japan. I also just think the pure stuff and people not knowing him can be advantages. It’s one thing to watch him on video than to face him in the box.“

"He has the ability to pound the strike zone, and if he cuts down on his walks, it will be a big difference-maker for him, and he will have tremendous success. April be a big testing period to see if most hitters will lay off his ghost forkball with two strikes. In this day and age, because these guys don’t care as much about striking out anymore, they will take those hacks.”

"He can take advantage of a pitch coming in and looking like a fastball and then just bottoming out. You take advantage of that aggressiveness, as hitters who will try and slap the ball the other way are few and far between.

"Being that they haven’t seen much of the ghost forkball, they might see a lot of it once they start swinging at it. But he is not a one-trick pony and he does not have to go to the ghost forkball every time, either.”

“He’s able to locate and command that fastball on both sides of the plate, up and down. He can have a lot of success in the middle of that rotation. I say he will win 12 games with a 3.70 ERA. I am looking at some Tajiuan Walker type of numbers with more upside in that first year.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: We obviously don’t have anything significant to work off statistically yet, but this source and others I have spoken to this spring strongly believe Senga’s stuff will translate well to MLB.

His willingness to absorb pointers and information from Scherzer and Verlander can help ease the transition. I like Senga a lot as the 72nd pitcher being taken in the NFBC and was very happy to get him for seven dollars in the Tout Wars mixed auction.

For the record, Walker had a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP last year, but I am expecting better than his 20.3 K% from Senga, as ATC projections have him at 25.6.

 

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander

“Certain things are consistent and timeless. With all the fancy watches that are out there, you don’t scoff at a Rolex. You know what it is, you know what you’re going to get. I believe it’s not a fluke that Verlander came back from Tommy John surgery and had a career year. He became much more consistent and efficient at what he was able to do.”

“These aren’t the young kids trying to overpower people. They aren’t trying to make a name for themselves. These are two guys who are looking to do something special as teammates. They will push each other and also pat each other on the back, with a goal to win a World Series in New York. These guys have been pretty spectacular in maintaining their form health-wise throughout the years.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: This a simple message for those fantasy players who may have some minor concerns about the ages of the Mets’ two top starters: Don’t look for negatives when there are not any apparent significant concerns.

As Mets SNY analyst Jerry Blevins recently said to me, Father Time is undefeated, but he still expects strong seasons out of Scherzer and Verlander.  The two of them are trying to finish off their careers with the flourish of winning a World Series together in New York and know how to pace themselves by this point in their careers.

The Phillies’ Closer Situation

“I am going with Craig Kimbrel until he breaks. That’s the reason they went out and got him, to be the closer. I like Seranthony Dominguez, don’t get me wrong. He’s had that experience and done well, but he’s not comparable to Kimbrel as a closer. You do have Dominguez to go to if Kimbrel is off or injured."

I go with Kimbrel due to his complete body of work. He’s bounced around the last few years but now he is in a place knowing that this team went to the World Series and went out to get him. I still think he has the stuff.”

Engel’s Insider Angles: Despite a big tumble in his strikeout rate last season (42.2 to a career-low 27.7 percent) and ultimately losing his grip on the closer’s job in Los Angeles, Kimbrel still is the most proven option the Phillies have. It’s not impossible for him to function as a solid, but less dominant fireman than he was in the past in 2023.

Opponents hit .259 against Kibrel's four-seamer last season, after hitting .180 against it in 2021. The xBA against the featured pitch was .199, though. Philadelphia has not named a firm closer for the 2023 season, but Kimbrel knows what it takes to succeed in the role and he is a viable bounce-back candidate for a respectable season with a low fantasy investment (116th pitcher off the board).

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF