Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners

Scott Engel’s Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller. Every year during the season, Scott chats with prime MLB sources to gather exclusive insights. Current and former players, team executives, MLB scouts, media members, and others inside the game share their in-depth observations on notable players. Scott adds in fantasy baseball analysis on the information shared.

The newest edition of the FSWA award-winning Insider Series features takes on the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners. Derek Togerson, who is a Padres reporter for NBC 7 in San Diego, and Mike Lefko (@MikeLefko), a Mariners analyst for ESPN 710 Seattle, provided their comprehensive thoughts on key players, while Scott added in his Insider Insights.

Togerson and Lefko appeared as MLB insider guests on RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio with Scott Engel and Michael F. Florio. Excerpts from their discussions with Scott and Mike are included here, along with Scott’s fantasy spins on their player evaluations. Top MLB experts will regularly join Scott and Mike during the fantasy baseball season on RotoBaller Radio.

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Early-Season Scouting Reports From San Diego

Michael King

“He’s going to be really good this year. The interesting thing about him is the strikeout numbers aren’t big, but he’s getting a lot of soft contact and he’s getting a lot of outs without working deep into counts. Michael King looks the part. His head is screwed on right. He may not get the big strikeout numbers, but he’s going to eat a lot of innings and have a low 3.00 ERA when all is said and done.”

Insider Angles:  King has worked seven innings in two of his four starts so far this season, but he has struck out more than five batters just once. He has a 4.11 ERA and 4.26 xFIP, but the ATC Projection in the RotoBaller Season Pass was for a 3.56 ERA, so even smoother times may be ahead. He should finish with better than his current 24.8 strikeout percentage, as he is projected at 26.8. If you drafted King at an NFBC ADP of 142 you should continue to receive respectable overall returns, and he is a quality trade target for those looking for a solid complement to their top starters.

Joe Musgrove

“He’s trying to find himself. Remember, he only made 17 starts last year. He never really had a complete 2023 season. He’s not a guy who relies on stuff, he relies on movement, deception, and straight-up moxie. As soon as he gets the consistency, and gets the release point and the mechanics in place, then he’s the dude who goes on a three-month bender where you’re not going to be able to get much off of him.”

Insider Angles:  Heading into Friday’s start, Musgrove had allowed three earned runs in each of his last two turns, covering 13 innings pitched. Then he was hammered by Philadelphia for seven earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched, shooting his ERA up to an unsightly 6.94.

After his first five starts last season, Musgrove had a 6.75 ERA, so he has not come out of the gate well in the last two campaigns. If you roster Musgrove, patience is simply required, and those in need of pitching help should attempt to see what it might take to pry him away from a competitor who might be anxious about the concerning results so far. I would certainly try to buy low on Musgrove, who had a .348 BABIP and 72.3 percent strand rate against him before the start against the Phillies.

Matt Waldron

Solid start for Padres Matt Waldron.

He’s generated 5 Whiffs through 3 IP, w/ a 43% Whiff% on the Knuckleball

Of note, he’s upped the Sweeper usage tonight. Throwing it 25% of the time. pic.twitter.com/5jbeQHXviw

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) April 25, 2024

“He will tell you he is not a knuckleball pitcher, he is a pitcher who has a knuckleball. If you look at the usage, it’s actually similar to a guy that throws a sweeper a lot of the time. He throws 92 to 93. After seeing the knuckleball come in, that 93 looks like 97. He’s not like traditional Tim Wakefield or Charlie Hough. He’s throwing a bunch of other pitches. When he’s got it going, though, it’s a really good weapon for him.”

“There’s going to be times when the knuckleball just sits there, flutters and it’s going to be batting practice. But the majority of the time he’s going to be so different than everyone else. This guy is a complete mystery and looks like nothing else you’ve seen in the rotation, so he’s going to be able to take some teams by surprise. He can be a sneaky good fifth starter.”

Insider Angles:  Waldron is rostered in only 12 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, and he has been inconsistent so far this season, yet the 27-year-old righty should be monitored as a potential add/streamer. In three of his last four starts, Waldron has allowed one earned run or less, and he worked a season-high six innings in his last start.

Waldron’s 3.86 ERA has a 4.36 xFIP behind it, so more adequate or quality outings are possible, especially when the matchup is right. He has struck out five or more batters in three of his five starts so far this season, but walks may be an issue at times, as Waldron has issued three-plus free passes in two of the last three appearances.

The knuckleball has indeed been Waldron’s most heavily utilized pitch, at 35.1 percent. Opponents are hitting .147 against it with an xBA of .238. He does feature a five-pitch mix, but his results have clearly been better with the knuckler than any other offering. Pick your spots with him carefully for now.

Dylan Cease

“You look at the metrics last year, something was just wrong. His fastball velocity dipped a tick or two and the spin rate on his slider dropped. This year, he has his slider back to where it was in 2022. He also has his fastball velocity back up. So whatever was ailing him a year ago is apparently gone. He looks like he’s in a good place emotionally.”

“Why would you not want to go from pitching in Chicago to pitching in Petco Park, one of the best pitching parks on the planet? For him to be able to slot in and not feel like he has to carry everything on his shoulders, he’s really going to take off. He’s the guy who might have the best year of all of these guys in a very talented rotation.”

Insider Angles: Cease has been better than even some optimists have expected so far, with three wins in five starts and a 1.82 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. But the xFIP is at 3.57 and the .154 BABIP points to some movement back to earth soon. Still, the ballpark and league change (NL for the first time in his career), plus the intangible benefits of getting out of the mess in Chicago indicate that Cease can ultimately settle in as at least a quality No. 2 fantasy starter. The upside, however, is always there for a very good year.

According to Baseball Savant, Cease’s four-seamer is sitting at 96.7 mph, and it was at 95.6 last year after being at 96.8 in 2022. So that is one example of how Torgeson’s analysis of Cease is on target.

Robert Suarez

“His stuff is electric. He comes in, he’s pumping an easy 101. It’s rare to see a guy who does not look like a max effort pitcher hit triple digits with his fastball. He’s willing to go out and get you five outs. If something was to happen to him, Mike Shildt would likely go closer by committee. I think the guy who would have right of first refusal would be Yuki Matsui. His split-finger is ridiculous. He’s got closer stuff as well.”

Once again, Robert Suarez threw nothing but 4-seam fastballs in the 9th inning today.

He has now thrown nearly exclusively 4-seamers in his last six appearances, with a handful of sinkers.

No changeups. No sliders. Just heat. pic.twitter.com/WknJYUTM4g

— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) April 21, 2024

Insider Angles: Suarez has already proved to be a terrific value, as he was drafted behind the likes of Alex Lange and Jose Leclerc. His 0.77 ERA does have a 3.64 behind it, but he has converted all nine of the save chances so far. Suarez was drafted as a speculative late flier, so take the terrific results while you can get them, and if one does choose to sell on him, the return will be highly prolific compared to the preseason value.

Mariners Musings

The Seattle Closer Situation

“This is what the Mariners do. They have their relievers utilized in ‘pockets’. They really don’t have a true closer. They really do like matchups. They could throw Andres Munoz in the seventh if it’s a high-leverage situation, or they could throw him in there in the ninth, and he’s had some issues there.”

“Ryne Stanek’s been a very nice addition. I’m not sure he expected to be in a role like that, but that role does vary based on what the coaching staff feels. But it seems like Stanek has taken to it. Don’t bank on one of them going to emerge. It’s going to depend on what group of three is going to be up when it’s time to bring one of them in.”

Insider Angles: So far this season, Munoz has three saves and Stanek has two. But Stanek has not recorded a save in Seattle’s last 13 games. On Thursday, Munoz earned that third save, while Stanek recorded his fourth hold. Munoz does have three holds, too. Yet he has allowed one run in his last seven appearances, and does appear to be the preferred fireman for now, while Stanek will still pick up occasional saves. Many fantasy leaguers are aware of the pecking order, but must be ready to see Stanek vulture Munoz’s chances at any time.

Bryce Miller

“A lot was made this offseason about him adding a splitter. This rotation, particularly, they bounced a lot of ideas off each other. It looks good, the addition of that pitch. It gives him more of a pitch mix. I think Bryce Miller is only going to get better.”

Insider Angles: The split-finger has been Miller’s second-most utilized pitch, at 20.5 percent. Opponents are batting .172 against it with an xBA of .208. In five starts so far this season, Miller has a 2.22 ERA, but the xFIP is at 3.87 and the strand rate is 95.2, plus the BABIP is .182. He should settle in as a good guy to supplement your top starters, though.

Miller won’t be a consistent high strikeout guy, but the ERA and WHIP returns will be satisfactory overall even if there are some bumpy occasional outings. He lasted only four innings the last time out, yet had three consecutive quality starts before that outing. He can be a viable trade target when coming off a shakier stretch.

Julio Rodriguez

“I think we’re learning, at least early in his career, Julio’s going to be a very streaky hitter. He also got off to a slow start in his rookie season. Julio had pretty much just five good weeks last year., but those five weeks were insane. I don’t know if anyone thought it was going to be this slow of a start, and it is stunning. The numbers are going to be there, the track record from 2022 and 2023 shows that. Something needs to change for Julio, but he’s just too good. They’ve invested so much in him that he’s going to have to figure it out at some point.”

Julio Rodríguez tightly hugged the trident the #Mariners use to celebrate homer. It was a happy reunion, the first time he got to hold it after going deep this season.

“I loved it. It was a long time, a long time not seeing my good friend.”https://t.co/BZIi47J2qY

— Seattle Sports (@SeattleSports) April 24, 2024

Insider Angles: Since April 14, Rodriguez has raised his batting average from .186 to .284, but he has only one homer and 10 RBI on the season, as that lack of power and run production continues to linger. He has only two doubles in April, both in the same game. Heading into Friday night, his SLG was at .308, but the xSLG was at .399, and the HR/FB rate was at a lowly 5.3 percent, compared to 19.6 last year.

Rodriguez is also hitting more line drives so far this season (31.3 percent, compared to 18.5 last season), so seeing the HR luck correct, plus hitting more liners, should lead to a surge soon. As indicated by Lefko, the multi-week explosion might not be far off.

George Kirby

“George Kirby is a very passionate pitcher. He’ll let his anger show out there, he’ll let his emotions show out there. He prides himself so much on not walking guys. He lives in the zone. He will not throw pitches that batters chase. He will rarely waste a pitch. Teams are starting to realize that, and he can still be very effective pitching in the zone. But they’ve jumped on him. That’s going to be the big adjustment for him because now, people know what George Kirby wants to do.”

 “If we go based on track record, he’s too good to keep struggling. This just might be a George Kirby where he is just going to give up some runs and some hits, but not to the level of 10 hits and eight runs like he did to the Guardians (on April 3). This might be a guy who gives up two to three runs every start.”

Insider Angles: After opening April by allowing 13 runs in 7.2 innings over two starts, Kirby rebounded to allow two runs in six innings to the Reds, and then took advantage of a matchup with the lifeless Rockies to toss five shutout innings. He has allowed only one walk in April and struck out a total of 13 batters against Cincinnati and Colorado.

Kirby was the seventh pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts, so reading the above scouting report on him plus dealing with the inconsistency so far won’t help to ease early concerns about him much. The 5.33 ERA does have a 3.41 xERA behind it, though, plus the 60.9 strand rate and .359 BABIP signal that Kirby can continue to show off his better form often in the starts ahead. Kirby might not quite match his ADP level at the end of the year, but the 2023 All-Star is unlikely to end up as a bust, either.

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